Tag: Future

  • The Future of AI Is Uncertain, And It’s Up to Us

    The Future of AI Is Uncertain, And It’s Up to Us

    • Jack Goodman, Founder of Studiosity, reviews AI Snake Oil: What Artificial Intelligence Can Do, What It Can’t, and How to Tell the Difference by Arvind Narayan and Sayash Kapoor.

    Is artificial intelligence (AI) going to transform our universities? Or will it destroy the need for a tertiary education? Right now, it’s impossible to tell.

    If you read the media, you’re likely to think things will end up at one extreme or the other. That’s because we are living in an age of AI hype, where exaggerated claims about the technology – both on the plus side from the biggest AI engineering firms, and on the downside from those concerned about a dystopian future – are dominating the conversation.

    For those of us who aren’t computer scientists or software engineers with domain expertise, wouldn’t it be helpful to have a guide to help us unpack what’s going on and figure out how to engage with this technology that may prove to be world-altering?

    If you’re a head of state or a billionaire, then you probably already have an AI advisor. For the rest of us, Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor, two computer scientists at Princeton University, have kindly written AI Snake Oil as a layman’s roadmap to the current and likely future trajectory of the technology. (Alongside the book the pair have launched a website that’s full of the most current commentary and analysis.)

    Narayanan and Kapoor are concerned with the full gamut of AI, not just the ‘generative’ variety that has garnered so much attention since its ‘debut’ with the arrival of ChatGPT. They helpfully separate AI into three main streams: Predictive AI, Generative AI and Content Moderation AI. All three suffer from claims of exaggerated effectiveness, a lack of scientific evidence and fantastic claims about their future capabilities.

    For the purposes of a higher education audience, it’s generative AI that’s of most interest, because that’s the technology that can simulate the intellectual output of an educated brain – whether in the form of text or visual imagery. They put genAI into its historical context: most of us don’t know that the neural network theory that underpins genAI goes back to the 1950s, and that it’s been through a series of cycles of hype and disappointment.

    Sadly, the authors aren’t particularly interested in the impact of genAI on higher education, apart from noting off-handedly that the technology appears to be largely undetectable, and that financially-strapped universities that think the technology will deliver endless efficiency dividends may be sadly disappointed. At various points they mention how they encourage active engagement with AI to understand what it can and cannot do, all from the perspective of their lives at Princeton. That’s not particularly helpful given how outlandishly wealthy, privileged, and tiny that university is.

    Also, the authors miss an opportunity to explore different types of genAI technologies, particularly those that may be designed to encourage learning versus others that improve human productivity by offloading cognitive effort. No doubt the latter are already transforming human work, but whether they have a place in higher education is a different question.

    There is a concept in AI known as ‘alignment’, which refers to the risk that uncontrolled AI may, as it approaches more powerful levels of general intelligence, act against the interests of humans and harm (or even kill) us. It’s controversial, and the authors devote an entire chapter to how we should think about, and respond to, technology companies’ pursuit of artificial general intelligence (AGI).

    From the perspective of higher education, our sector may be better served in the immediate term by thinking about alignment in terms of the interests of educational institutions and the (mostly American) technology companies that are at the vanguard of developing genAI. The culture of incrementalism that has traditionally served universities well may not be so effective when dealing with such a rapidly approaching paradigm shift in humans’ relationship with technology.

    The conclusion of AI Snake Oil is a little surprising. The authors make clear that humanity’s relationship with AI will be determined by all of us –individuals and institutions, as well as regulators and politicians. No doubt there is an opportunity for universities and their leaders to take a leading role in shaping this conversation, using their institutional resources and cultural authority to help inform the public and guide us all toward a better relationship with ever more powerful computers.

    We all need to be educated, informed, and willing to speak up – so that we don’t end up living in a world where AI is dominated by the largest and most powerful corporations the planet has ever seen. That will be the worst of all possible outcomes.

    Studiosity is a learning technology company that works with 100+ universities globally and serving 2.2 million university students across the UK, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the Middle East. Jack founded Studiosity in Sydney in 2003 with a vision to make the highest quality academic study support accessible to every student, regardless of their geographic or socio-economic circumstances.

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  • Freedom of speech in higher education (Future Trends Forum)

    Freedom of speech in higher education (Future Trends Forum)

     What does academic freedom mean in 2025?

    We will explore this vital question with the help of Jeremy C. Young, the Freedom to Learn program director at PEN America (and excellent 2023 Forum guest).

     

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  • University 4.0: A Vision for the Future of Higher Education

    University 4.0: A Vision for the Future of Higher Education

    ***It’s not too late to register for HEPI’s events this week: ‘Earning and learning: What’s the reality for today’s students?‘ webinar with Advance HE at 10am, Tuesday 14 January and ‘Who Pays? Exploring Fairer Funding Models for Higher Education‘ Symposium at Birkbeck, Thursday 16 January 10am to 5pm.***

    By Professor Aleks Subic, Vice-Chancellor and Chief Executive, Aston University.

    Universities have always been at the heart of knowledge and innovation. But in today’s rapidly evolving world, they must transcend their traditional roles to address complex global challenges, harness emerging opportunities and embrace heightened responsibilities. They must become champions of inclusive innovation and drivers of positive socioeconomic transformation, creating thriving innovation ecosystems that deliver sustainable, place-based development and inclusive growth. This is the promise of University 4.0.

    From Classical Roots to Transformational Ecosystems

    In late 2024, Aston University hosted the Global Federation of Competitiveness Councils (GFCC) University Research and Leadership Forum, marking a pivotal moment in the reimagining of higher education. Leaders, innovators, and visionaries from universities, industry, government, and communities gathered to confront a critical question: How can universities redefine their role in a world that is transforming at an unprecedented pace?

    The GFCC, a global multi-stakeholder membership organisation, is dedicated to accelerating productivity, growth, prosperity, and sustainability through best practices. Central to this forum was the exploration of University 4.0 — a bold and transformative vision for the future of higher education in an era of digital disruption, hyper-connectivity, the emergence of powerful technologies like artificial intelligence, social inequities, and sustainability challenges.

    The Global Federation of Competitiveness Councils (GFCC) University Forum, which I have had the privilege to lead from Aston University, and Elsevier Fourth Generation University (4GU) Development Group, inspired by the pioneering work of the University of Technology Eindhoven, have independently arrived at remarkably aligned perspectives on the evolution of universities to date. This shared understanding traces the progression through four distinct generations of higher education institutions, culminating in the transformative vision of University 4.0 (or 4GU).

    Universities have evolved through several transformative stages to meet the demands of each era:

    1. The Classical University: The first generation focused on teaching, by transmitting knowledge through oral communication and manuscripts. Its primary purpose was education.
    2. The Research University: The second generation emphasised the creation of new knowledge through scientific research, making universities hubs of research and innovation.
    3. The Entrepreneurial University: The third generation saw universities become economic players, commercialising research, fostering start-ups, and forging closer ties with industry. This era marked the rise of the ‘triple-helix’ model, integrating academia, industry, and government.
    4. University 4.0: The fourth generation is a response to a rapidly changing, technology-driven world. It envisions universities that are focused on socio-economic impact, inclusive innovation, and sustainable development goals, interconnected with industry, government, and society. These institutions are engines of innovation and transformation, embracing the ‘quadruple-helix’ model by integrating academic expertise with diverse societal needs to deliver real-world impact.

    The University 4.0 model is not about solitary academic pursuits. Instead, it thrives on collaboration, drawing diverse perspectives and inputs to address real-world challenges. Innovation precincts and districts — geographically concentrated hubs of high-tech companies, research institutions, and civic infrastructure — are emerging as the epicentres of economic revitalisation, creating opportunities for skilled workforces and fostering sustainable and high-value growth through place-based innovation.

    Universities embedded in such precincts, acting as catalysts of engagement and innovation are emerging as the fourth-generation universities – University 4.0. They are aligned more closely to technological and digital transformations, ensuring greater interconnectivity between the future of work and learning, bringing society along and alleviating the so-called societal pain when education lags behind industrial and digital revolutions.

    University 4.0 in Action: Aston University and the Birmingham Innovation Precinct

    At Aston University, the University 4.0 vision is central to our Aston 2030 Strategy. We are transforming into a fourth-generation university that is future-ready and aligned with national higher education reform priorities as outlined recently by Secretary of State for Education Bridget Phillipson. Universities must shift from isolated knowledge hubs to active participants in their regional and national ecosystems, embracing transformational business models and their roles as civic anchors.

    A flagship example of this vision is the Birmingham Innovation Precinct, part of the West Midlands Investment Zone. This innovation cluster, based on the quadruple-helix model, integrates academia, industry, government, and communities to create a globally significant hub of collaboration and innovation. By co-locating stakeholders, the precinct fosters digital innovation, improves health equity, drives skills development, and accelerates the transition to net-zero emissions.

    Key initiatives within the Birmingham Innovation Precinct include:

    • 10 Woodcock Street: A newly acquired 225,000 sq ft facility, set to house Aston Business School, the Aston Integrated Healthcare Hub, the Aston Business Incubator, and the Green Energy Centre delivering sustainable energy solutions to the precinct with net zero emissions.
    • The Aston Integrated Healthcare Hub: A model for community healthcare that offers preventative health and wellbeing services while showcasing advancements in digital healthcare technology, including remote patient monitoring. Operating as a ‘living lab’, it integrates translational research and inclusive innovation, student placements, and training to address local health inequities.
    • The Aston Business Incubator: Launching in 2025, the incubator will provide a home to 100 tech startups and innovative businesses. Offering state-of-the-art facilities, collaborative workspaces, and access to academic expertise, mentoring and investment, it will transform ideas into thriving enterprises.

    These initiatives are more than projects; they are integral to Aston University’s commitment to place-based innovation, delivering measurable socioeconomic impact for Birmingham, the West Midlands, and beyond.

    A Call to Action for the Future of Higher Education

    The transition to University 4.0 represents a fundamental shift in how higher education operates, collaborates, and contributes to society. However, to fully realise this vision, systemic change is required—not only within universities but across the funding models and evaluation frameworks that shape them.

    The current funding and ranking systems often prioritise traditional metrics that fail to capture the broader socioeconomic contributions of universities, like access and participation, employability, social mobility, digital inclusion, contributions to health outcomes and sustainability, and impacts stemming from knowledge transfer and innovation. To truly support and reward the transformative impact of University 4.0, these systems must evolve to measure and incentivise the right indicators. As we move forward, it is essential to ask not just what we are good at but what we are good for. Only then can universities fulfil their potential as engines of innovation, inclusion, and growth for a better future.

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  • More Eating the Future | HESA

    More Eating the Future | HESA

    Morning everyone. Welcome back. Some statistical wonkery today, with respect to the analysis of government expenditures on postsecondary education.

    Many of you will recognize Figures 1 and 2 from earlier blogs or the State of Postsecondary Education 2024. They represent the two most-common ways to look at commitments to postsecondary education: the first in per-student terms, and the second in per-GDP terms.

    Figure 1: Provincial Expenditures per FTE Student by Sector, 2022-23

    Figure 2: Provincial PSE Expenditures, by Sector, as a Percentage of Provincial GDP, 2022-23

    These two approaches have their respective strengths and weaknesses, and not surprisingly they generate slightly different conclusions about how strong each jurisdiction’s efforts are writ to postsecondary education, one focused on the “recipients” of funding (students) and the other focused on the source of the funding (the local economy). Neither is definitive, both are useful.

    But there is another way to look at this funding, and that is not to look at how much institutions receive as a proportion of local jurisdictional output, but to look at what percentage of government spending is devoted to educational institutions. Examined over time, this figure tells you the changing status of postsecondary education compared to other policy priorities; examined across provinces, it can tell you which provinces put more emphasis on postsecondary education. Of course, no one tracks this in Canada, because it involves a lot of tedious mucking around in government documents, but what is this blog for if not precisely that? I wasn’t doing anything on my holidays anyways.

    So I decided to pair my long-term data series on provincial budgets (the most recent one posted back in April), with a new data series on total provincial spending which I derived simply by looking at consolidated expenditures in each province since 2006 and expressed in these same budgets. Usual disclaimers apply: provincial spending definitions aren’t entirely parallel (or at least they use different words to describe what they are doing) particularly with respect to capital, so inter-provincial comparisons are probably a tiny bit apples-to-oranges even if each province’s data is consistent over time. Take the exact numbers with a grain of salt but I think they will mostly stand up to scrutiny.

    Figure 3 shows provincial transfers on postsecondary institutions across all ten provinces as a percentage of total provincial spending. And it’s…well, it’s not good. As recently as 2011-12, provinces spent five percent of their budgets on postsecondary education. Now it’s three and a half percent. Or to put it another way, as a proportion of total spending, it’s down by about thirty percent.

    Figure 3: Provincial Spending on PSE as a Percentage of Total Provincial Spending, Canada, 2006-07 to 2024-25

    Is this due to particular events in particular provinces? Not really. Let’s just take a look at the four big provinces (which make up 85% of the postsecondary system. The provinces all started in different places (Alberta, famously, spent a heck of a lot more than other provinces back in the day) and the slope of decline is gentler in Quebec than elsewhere, but the basic path of decline and the eventual destination is similar everywhere. Notable by its absence in any of the four provinces are any clear break-lines which coincide with a change in administration—these declines are pretty consistent regardless of whether governments are left, right, or centre. It’s not a partisan thing.

    Figure 4: Provincial Spending on PSE as a Percentage of Total Provincial Spending, Selected Provinces, 2006-07 to 2024-25

    Figure 5 shows each province’s performance both in 2006-07 and 2024-25. As can clearly be seen, every province saw a decline over the 18-year period. This was not especially driven by one or two provinces: all provinces seem to have come to an identical conclusion that postsecondary institutions are not worth investing in. The size of whatever drop was in most cases inversely proportionate to how high spending was back in the initial period. The biggest drops were in Alberta and Newfoundland, which back in the day were the two highest spenders, riding high as they were on oil revenues. The smallest drop was New Brunswick, which was the weakest performer back in 2006-07. Ontario…is Ontario. But basically, the entire country is converging on the idea that investments in postsecondary need to be in the 2.5%-4.5% range rather than in the 4-7.5% range as they did 20 years ago.

    Figure 5: Provincial Spending on PSE as a Percentage of Total Provincial Spending, by Province, 2006-07 vs 2024-25

    Now, the obvious conclusion you might draw from this is “hey! Huge declines in public support for public postsecondary education!” But this is not quite correct. Remember: these are ratios we are looking at. Some of the delta will be due to changes in the numerator, some will be due to changes in the denominator. Figure 6 shows changes in both postsecondary spending and total provincial spending. And what’s clear is that the changes we have been examining in Figures 3 and 6 have more to do with the expansion of total spending rather than a decline in PSE spending.

    Figure 6: Real Change Provincial Spending on PSE Institutions vs Real Change Total Provincial Spending, Canada, 2006-07 to 2024-25 (2006-07 = 100)

    That increase in provincial spending in the last decade—30% over and above inflation—is wild. And deeply inconvenient for anyone who wants to build a narrative around generalized “austerity.” But what is clear here is:

    1. transfers to universities and colleges have trailed provincial spending everywhere and without reference to ideology of the governments in question, and
    2. ii) if transfers had not trailed general spending, they would be roughly $9.5 billion better off than they are today.

    And by a simply *amazing* coincidence, $9.5 billion–in real dollars—is almost identical to the increase in income  postsecondary institutions have seen in revenue from international students over the same period (it’s about a $9.2 increase from 2007-08 to 2022-23, the last year for which we have useful data—the 2024-25 is likely somewhat higher but we don’t know by how much).

    There a number of conclusions one could draw from this, but the ones I draw are:

    • Governments are spending more. A lot more. They just aren’t spending on PSE. Instead, they are spending it on an ageing population and other things that juice consumption. Eating the future, basically.
    • The drop in government support for PSE relative to overall spending increases is universal. No government provides any evidence of contrarian thinking. None of them think PSE is worth greater investment.
    • Changes of government are also almost irrelevant. They may change the “vibe” around postsecondary education, but they don’t change financial facts on the ground.
    • There is a really basic argument about the value of postsecondary education which somehow, postsecondary institutions are losing with governments and, I think by implication, the public. That, and nothing else, needs to be the focus of institutional efforts on external relations.

    Provincial governments are eating the future. But the data above, showing that the trend transcends geography and political ideology suggests that at base, the problem is that the Canadian public does not think postsecondary education is worth investing in. Working out how to reverse this view really needs to be job one for the whole sector.

    (Or, to be a bit cuter: the sector needs to do a lot less Government Relations and a lot more Community Relations.)

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  • Slowing Growth and Uncertainty: A Look at IIE’s Open Doors Report 2024 and What the Future Might Hold

    Slowing Growth and Uncertainty: A Look at IIE’s Open Doors Report 2024 and What the Future Might Hold

    Bryce Loo, Associate Director of Higher Education Research

    International students navigate a landscape of uncertainty and opportunity, as the 2024 IIE Open Doors Report highlights shifting trends in U.S. enrollment and global migration.

    The Institute of International Education’s (IIE) annual Open Doors Report on International Education Exchange (Open Doors, for short),[1] along with its companion Fall Enrollment Snapshot Survey (Fall Snapshot Survey, for short),[2] was released only a few weeks after a consequential presidential election in which former president Donald Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump’s win will significantly shift the landscape around international students in the U.S.

    Open Doors is a retrospective report on international enrollment and other student data in the U.S., focused on the previous full academic year—in this case 2023-24.[3] The Fall Snapshot Survey provides insights into the current fall term. But uncertainty abounds in this new environment with the return of Trump, known for his tough stances on immigration, which may affect non-immigrant residents such as international students and temporary workers. This is happening against a backdrop of global uncertainty, in a year with a tremendous number of important elections around the world, many armed conflicts, and growing climate change. At the same time, there are bright spots for the U.S. as a host of international students and for global student migration in general.

    In this article, I also compare results from Open Doors and the Fall Snapshot Survey against recently released data from SEVIS (the Student Exchange and Visitor Information System), maintained by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), for Fall 2024.[4] This dataset captures all students with a record in SEVIS, the U.S. government database in which all international students are required to be registered by their hosting U.S. institution. Data are organized monthly, with the most recently released is for November 2024, and they vary little month-to-month within a given term, such as a fall semester. For consistency, I compare November 2024 with November 2023. Such data help us to gain a fuller picture of current international enrollment trends this fall.

    What the data tell us: Continued but leveling growth

    Total international student enrollment in the U.S. hit an all-time high of 1,126,690 in 2023–24, a growth rate of 6.6 percent from the previous year. This has followed a few years of recovery following the dramatic enrollment decrease during the COVID-19 pandemic. The post-pandemic growth rate peaked in 2022-23 at 11.5 percent.

    However, growth is slowing. While this year’s Fall Snapshot Survey indicates a 3 percent growth rate in fall 2024, analysis of the SEVIS data indicates a drop in overall enrollment. International enrollment is down to 1,091,190 students in November 2024, a 10 percent decrease from the previous November, according to SEVIS records.[5] IIE’s data confirms slowing growth, too. New international student enrollment slowed to only 0.1 percent in 2023-24. Additionally, the Fall Snapshot Survey indicates a 5 percent decrease in new students this fall.

    This recent slowdown, which happened prior to the presidential election results, is tricky to diagnose. One likely culprit, though certainly not the only one, is economics: An education in the U.S. has become particularly expensive, due largely to a combination of inflation and a strong U.S. dollar. A more expensive U.S. education particularly impacts many students from South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the two regions showing the strongest rise in U.S. international enrollment in recent years, who are particularly price sensitive.

    Changing trends in South Asia and East Asia

    International enrollments in the U.S. from South Asia, driven dominantly by India, continued growing at a rapid rate in 2023–24. In 2023–24, India became the top country of origin among international students in the U.S. and by a substantial margin, at 331, 602 students. There was about a 23 percent increase in Indian students from the previous year, accounting for almost 30 percent of all international students in the U.S.

    In 2023-24, South Asia firmly dominated among regions of origin for U.S. international students and its numbers continue to rise. South and Central Asia (which IIE groups together as one[6]) account for one-third (34.3 percent) of all U.S. international students, just ahead of East Asia. South and Central Asia’s sending numbers grew 22 percent over the last year, more than those of any other region. Beyond India, there continues to be robust enrollment growth from Bangladesh (26 percent), Nepal (11 percent), Sri Lanka (10 percent), and Pakistan (8 percent). Bangladesh and Nepal broke into the top 10 countries of origin in 2023-24.

    By contrast, the number of Chinese students in the U.S. declined more than 4 percent to 277,398 during the same period and accounted for less than 25 percent of all U.S. international students. Overall, numbers from East Asia are declining steadily (by nearly 4 percent last academic year). Numbers from South Korea (-2 percent) and Japan (-13 percent) continued to drop. The one bright spot among major East Asian nations was Taiwan, which saw a 6 percent rise from the previous year and was the fifth largest sending country. Students from East Asia have been decreasing in the last few years, and forecasts suggest further steady decline.

    For many East Asian students, the calculus about studying in the U.S. and in Western countries has changed in recent years. Holding a degree from a highly ranked U.S. or Western institution holds less cachet than it once did. In both China and South Korea, local universities have become more prestigious and offer students the opportunity to connect directly with the local job market, putting those studying far afield at a disadvantage. For Chinese students, geopolitical tensions and strict policies against Chinese students and scholars largely enacted by the first Trump Administration, many of which were continued by the Biden Administration, may make studying in the U.S. feel riskier. There has also been growing intra-regional mobility, with many East Asian students choosing to go to another country in the region. According to the British Council, for example, there are more Japanese students in China than in any anglophone country.

    Despite the recent increases in enrollment from South Asia, the SEVIS data show a rapid reversal of trends heading in Fall 2024. Indian enrollment in the U.S. this fall has declined by 24 percent, and overall South Asian enrollment has fallen at a similar rate. Meanwhile, Chinese and overall East Asian enrollment has flatlined, each with a barely perceptible decrease. As a result, however, China has become the top country of origin once again, with 263,523 students in the U.S., followed by India (25,5443), in Fall 2024. Likewise, East Asia has returned to the top spot among region of origin, with modest enrollment increases from Japan and South Korea.

    A slowdown of enrollment growth from South Asia likely is attributable to rising costs in the U.S., particularly given currency exchange rates, as noted earlier. Safety, a frequent concern for Indian students and their families, could also be a factor. Many Indian media outlets, such as The Economic Times and The Indian Express, have recently reported on increasing safety issues for Indian students in the U.S.

    That said, these declines from India and South Asia do not necessarily foretell a long-term trend. Many prominent models, notably that of HolonIQ, predict growth from India into 2030.

    Graduate students continue to dominate. For now.

    International student growth in the U.S. continues to be driven at the graduate level, particularly among master’s degree students. Graduate students made up almost 45 percent of all U.S. international enrollment in 2023-24. Total international student graduate enrollment increased by 7.6 percent in 2023-24, while undergraduate enrollment fell by 1.4 percent and non-degree enrollment fell by 11.5 percent. These trends are somewhat parallel with new international student enrollment. India has driven much of this growth in grad students, as have South and Central Asian students in general. More Chinese students came to study at the graduate level that year, too.

    This growth of international graduate students does not appear to be holding into 2024-25, however. The Fall Snapshot Survey indicates a slight decrease of about 2 percent in international grad students this fall and an increase (6 percent) in international undergrad students. The SEVIS numbers show decreases for both, including a significant decrease of 15 percent among international grad students. (International undergrad enrollment declined by 3 percent.) However, international graduate enrollment is still greater than undergraduate enrollment currently.

    The decrease in international graduate students appears to be driven by Indian students and South Asian students overall. Indian students account for about 40 percent of all U.S. international student graduate students, and 60 percent of Indian students in the U.S. are studying at the graduate level, according to Open Doors. Per the SEVIS data, Indian graduate enrollment in the U.S. declined by almost 26 percent in Fall 2024. Additionally, South and Central Asian and East Asian student together account for nearly three-quarters of all international graduate students. Chinese graduate enrollment in the U.S. decreased about 4 percent this fall, according to the data from SEVIS.

    U.S. universities and colleges continue to focus heavily on India and to a lesser extent China for their international student recruitment, according to the Fall Snapshot Survey. India is the top country of focus for both graduate students (81 percent of respondents) and undergrads (65 percent). China was second top country of focus for grad students and third for undergrads (just after Vietnam). Given the volatility of enrollment from India and steady declines from China, U.S. institutions may wish to ensure diversity of countries from which they recruit.

    What could impact international enrollment in the near future?

    The Trump Administration

    When it comes to potential impacts on international student enrollment in the U.S., a primary factor will be the incoming Trump administration. Donald Trump will take office with a decisive agenda, having campaigned and won with a tough-on-immigration stance. This stance seemed to resonate with many voters, along with concerns about the economy and inflation.

    The first Trump administration may provide a useful look at what could happen in the second one. Trump’s first term brought a decline in international student enrollment, due in part to policies like the 2017 travel ban and a slowdown in visa processing. This trend reversed somewhat during the Biden administration but could resume under the policies of a second Trump term.

    Going forward, much will depend on the incoming administration’s policies as well as rhetoric. Trump’s immigration agenda is mostly focused on asylum, primarily at the U.S.-Mexico border, and on undocumented immigrants, whom he has pledged to deport at unprecedented rates. The extent that he will focus on international students and immigrants with specialty occupations, notably the H1-B visa program under which some international students seek to remain in the U.S., is unclear. In June 2024, Trump, known for making offhand comments, proposed on a podcast hosted by Silicon Valley investors that international students who graduate from U.S. institutions, including community colleges, should receive a green card (permanent residency). He and his team later walked back that remark, and many commentators see such policy as highly unlikely given Trump’s overall immigration stance. In fact, reports suggest the administration is likely to limit pathways to H1-B visas, international students’ primary means of staying in the U.S. beyond Optional Practical Training (OPT), effectively making such visas virtually inaccessible.

    Policy changes under Trump’s second administration could also affect OPT and “duration of status,” the length of time students with visas have been allowed to stay in the U.S. without needing to renew. Such changes were attempted in the first Trump administration but did not succeed. His first administration also tried to eliminate STEM OPT, the 24-month extension of OPT for those graduating with a degree in fields related to science, technology, engineering, or mathematics. Indian students in particular may be concerned about such changes if they are proposed again, as they are often drawn to the U.S. by opportunities to gain work experience. Toward the end of that term the administration also put forward a rule to limit duration of status to a finite period of two or four years, rather than allow the time needed to finish earning a degree, after which a student would be required to pay a fee and renew.

    Still, it is possible to overestimate the attitudinal impact of a presidential administration, and recent survey research by Intead and Studyportals found a majority of prospective international students this fall were “indifferent” to the election outcome and how it might affect their plans to study in the U.S., according to The PIE News. There is certainly no monolithic view of President-elect Trump or U.S. politics among international students. If any declines in numbers happen again under Trump, it will likely be in response to policies that specifically impact international students or rhetoric aimed at individuals from their home country or region of origin. It may also be driven in part by visa delays and denials caused by administration policies.

    Policies and politics in other major host countries

    One other major factor is current policy changes in other major host countries, driven largely by politics and public opinion, which might actually boost the attractiveness of the U.S. The other three Big Four predominantly anglophone destinations—Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom—have had massive international student enrollment in recent years, particularly as a percentage of total higher education enrollment. According to IIE’s Project Atlas, Canada’s international enrollment rate in 2023 was 30 percent, Australia’s was 24 percent, and the U.K.’s was 22 percent. (By contrast, only 6 percent of U.S. higher education students were international, although overall size of its system makes the U.S. numerically the top enroller of international students.) Canada’s enrollment in particular has seen explosive growth, a rise of nearly 70 percent from 2019 to 2023. Many Canadian locales have struggled to accommodate such an influx, often viewed as a way to fill provincial funding gaps yet sometimes lacking steps to ensure students’ well-being.

    Additionally, international students have been ensnared in broader immigration debates within these three countries, often being unfairly blamed for systemic housing and employment challenges, among other issues. As in the U.S., immigration has been a major political topic in many Western countries and in recent elections in France and the U.K.

    As a result, the other three Big Four countries have begun implementing policies designed to rein in international enrollment growth and limit access to opportunities to work and stay after graduation. Canada, which according to IIE’s recent Open Doors briefing just overtook the U.K. to become the second most popular international student destination, adopted new policies in rapid-fire succession from late 2023 to fall 2024. The most consequential is a cap on the number of study permits (required in Canada for international students) granted per province, particularly meant to limit growth in higher-enrollment provinces, in 2024 and 2025. Other new policies include a significant hike in the financial resources international students are required to demonstrate, restrictions on work permits for spouses, limits on permission to work during study, and stricter requirements for obtaining the popular post-graduation work permit (PGWP), which allows graduated students to work in Canada and often transition to permanent residency.

    The Australian government is strongly considering similar caps on international student enrollment in an attempt to reduce overall migration to the country. Already it has stricter visa regulations for international students, including stronger “tests” to ensure that prospective students are coming with the intention of studying, not working, as well as a significant increase in the visa fee. In the U.K. a new regulation enacted by the Conservative Party prohibits international students at all levels except postgraduate from bringing family members starting in 2024, in order to “slash migration and curb abuse of the immigration system,” according to the U.K, government. The new Labour government has opted not to reverse the policy.

    The effects of these changes are already evident. The three other Big Four countries are all seeing declining applications for relevant visas and permits. Preliminary analysis of Canadian study permit application data shows the number of approved study permits will likely come in below the actual caps for 2024. The U.K. reported a 16 percent drop in student visa applications in summer 2024 compared to the same time period in 2023, and in Australia, the decrease in such applications has been particularly steep, nearly 40 percent from October 2023 to August 2024.

    So far, the prospective beneficiary of these changes has been the U.S., according to both prospective student surveys and media reports. For example, in IDP Education’s Emerging Futures Report for 2024, a prominent series based on prospective student survey data, the U.S. came in second place (at 23 percent) as destination of choice for survey takers, just behind Australia (24 percent). Interest in the U.S. increased four percentage points; Australia’s percentage point declined by one. By contrast, interest in the U.K. and Canada decreased 1 percent and 9 percent respectively, dropping them to third and fourth places. In media coverage of the restrictions, Indian outlets such as Business Standard and The Indian Express note that many Indian students are switching focus to the U.S, although some, including the Express, also report students are looking beyond the Big Four to other study destinations entirely.

    Still, President-elect Trump may introduce cuts or caps of his own, which, depending on their scope, may cause the U.S. to lose its developing enrollment edge. If all Big Four destinations have policies significantly cutting student influx, that could alter the student mobility landscape, shifting enrollments to other countries—notably, smaller anglophone destinations such as Ireland, New Zealand, and Singapore and non-predominantly anglophone countries in continental Europe and Asia—where English-taught programs have increased greatly in recent years.

    Student mobility in an uncertain world

    The incoming Trump administration and policy changes in other countries are only two factors apt to impact movement to the U.S.; internal issues in other countries and regions also come into play. For example, while U.S. policies and tensions with China have affected the number of Chinese students coming to the U.S., factors within China also played a role, as we examined in a recent series in WENR.

    Worldwide, uncertainty and systemic challenges lie ahead. Several major conflicts, notably Russia’s war in Ukraine and escalated fighting in the Middle East, threaten to spiral into bigger geopolitical crises. Authoritarianism is rising around the globe, creating more potential crises, as is the threat of climate change, with 2024 recently declared the hottest year on record. Among its many effects, climate change will likely continue spurring global migration, including, increasingly, the forcibly displaced. In fact, all these factors will likely increase global migration. Luckily, U.S. institutions are well-placed to take in students from affected regions and offer them pathways for academic and professional growth.

    In general terms, there is reason for optimism. Global student migration will continue and most likely rise, increasing economic and social opportunities for many globally mobile young people. International students also benefit their host societies, communities, and institutions, including domestic students, by bringing diverse international perspectives as well as economic benefits. By some estimates, international students will increase worldwide from about 6 million in 2023 to 10 million in 2030. The U.S. could host as many as 2 million, a still significant capacity compared to other destinations.

    Despite domestic and international pressures, U.S. institutions can continue to demonstrate the value of a U.S. education and what unique value they in particular offer. They can continue to make clear, through channels like the #youarewelcomehere campaign, that international students are both accepted and embraced. Institutions can continue to show that international education benefits not only students and institutions but communities and the nation. For example, huge numbers of U.S.-based entrepreneurs and  STEM professionals came to the U.S. as international students and have been an asset for U.S. business and research and development. And international educators can advocate for policies at local, state, and federal levels (for example, via NAFSA: Association of International Educators) that continue to make the U.S. a hospitable place for students from abroad.

    Most important, U.S. institutions can and should take proactive steps to ensure inclusion and integration of their international students. This means initial support in everything from securing good housing to culturally sensitive mental health resources to campus career services that recognize international students’ unique needs. It may mean assisting students with financing in any way possible. It also means more efforts toward academic and social integration, which involves educating faculty, staff, and domestic students as well.

    Looking to the future, U.S. policymakers, educators, and institutions must work together to create an environment that remains welcoming, inclusive, and responsive to the needs of international students. By doing so, the U.S. can maintain its position as a global leader in higher education and continue to benefit from the diverse perspectives and talents that international students bring.

     

    [1] Open Doors is an annual census of international students (those on a nonimmigrant student visa) enrollment in U.S. higher education institutions, as well as U.S. students who studied abroad two academic years prior.

    [2] The Fall Snapshot Survey is sent to all institutions that report data to IIE for Open Doors. This year, IIE collected 693 valid responses.

    [3] Open Doors always tracks data from the previous full academic year.

    [4] The SEVIS data released by DHS is usually the most up-to-date data available. Open Doors, however, provides more analysis and a greater breakdown of data compared with what is provided by SEVIS.

    [5] Usually, IIE’s Fall Snapshot Survey aligns with current data trends from SEVIS and is a strong predictor of numbers that appear in the following year’s Open Doors Report. This year, however, the data between the Fall Snapshot Survey and SEVIS are quite different, though both indicate slowing growth in international enrollment in the U.S.

    [6] Central Asia, which includes mostly former Soviet republics in Asia (such as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan), only accounts for about 1 percent of total enrollment from the overall South and Central Asia region, according to my analysis of IIE Open Doors data.

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  • Skilled for the Future: How China is Transforming Vocational Education with Gerard Postiglione

    Skilled for the Future: How China is Transforming Vocational Education with Gerard Postiglione

    If there’s one thing we know for sure about Confucian societies, it’s the value they place on scholarship.  Being a student doesn’t just connote future financial success; the very act of studying itself carries an important element of moral virtue.  It’s one of the things that has driven university participation rates to extraordinarily high levels in East Asia, and also among diaspora populations in countries around the world.  Here in Canada, 25 years ago, Statistics Canada polled parents across Canada on their expectations for their children’s education, and they literally could not fins a Chines parent whose ambitions for their children involved community college.

    But not everyone can go to university.  Well, they can, but it doesn’t leave you with the most balanced labour force.  So if you’re running a higher education system and you want to get people to focus on vocational skills, what do you do?  Well, if you’re China, one strategy might be to create vocational credentials but attach to them something a little bit more academic…like a degree?  Call it a “vocational university”

    With me once again today, this time to talk about Vocational higher education in China is Gerard Postiglione, professor of higher education at the University of Hong Kong.  We cover the origins of the Chinese government’s vocational education policy, it’s recent successes, and the development of a new type of institution called a vocational university.  It’s a good, quick tour through an underappreciated part of the global higher education system. 

    Let’s turn things over to Gerry.


    The World of Higher Education Podcast
    Episode 3.13 | Skilled for the Future: How China is Transforming Vocational Education with Gerard Postiglione

    Transcript

    Alex Usher (AU): Gerry, could you give us a sense of where vocational education traditionally fits within Chinese tertiary or post-secondary education? This is a Confucian society, and as places like Korea and Japan have shown, there’s a strong cultural preference for book learning. The connotations of being a scholar often include elements of moral virtue. So, where does vocational education fit into this?

    Gerard Postiglione (GP): Well, China has gone through tremendous transitions in the 20th century—from the Qing dynasty to the Republic, and then from the Republic to the People’s Republic of China in 1949. At that time, China was overwhelmingly poor, with about 80 to 85 percent of the population living in poverty. There was a lot to do. The first phase of change involved learning from the Soviet Union, which placed a strong emphasis on linking schools and factories, education, and labor.

    During this period, there was no issue of employment because jobs were assigned. But with the market reforms starting in 1978 and accelerating in the 1980s, everything changed. In 1985, there was a major Communist Party policy to universalize nine years of basic education. However, at the same time, access to universities remained extremely limited—only about 1 to 2 percent of the 18-to-22-year-old age group. At the senior secondary level, vocational and technical education accounted for about 50 percent of enrollment. That was a significant shift toward developing technical skills in senior secondary high school. That was a major change, and it was very difficult. Of course, there were costs and finances to handle, equipment to manage, and so on but that’s when China launched into its first phase of technical vocational education.

    AU: There’s always been kind of a view, and this isn’t restricted to China, of course, that vocational education is a “less than” choice. Earlier this year, there was a big stir about a student named Jiang Ping from a fashion vocational high school. She won a national math competition beating students from very prestigious institutions. She said she wanted to stay in vocational education, which caused quite a sensation. Though, of course, there was even more attention later when it turned out her teacher had helped her during the competition, which led to her disqualification. But it reflects this broader tension, doesn’t it? That vocational education is still seen as a distant second choice to a traditional academic university if you can get in. What do you think?

    GP: The Jiang Ping case was widely reported, and it was unfortunate. I can understand her teacher’s hope to see her student excel, especially in such a high-profile competition as the Alibaba Global Mathematics Competition. It was the first time contestants were allowed to use AI tools, which added a new dimension. But when it was discovered that her teacher had helped her during the competition, she was eliminated.

    As for the broader question, yes, that traditional Confucian view of education as primarily academic does still resonate, and you’re right—it’s not unique to China. In many countries, academic higher education is seen as more prestigious and valuable than vocational pathways. In China’s case, for students moving into senior secondary education, if they weren’t excelling academically, vocational technical education became the primary option for about 50 percent of students.

    It’s also worth noting that China’s higher education system includes both four-year bachelor’s degrees and three-year specialized colleges, similar to community colleges. So there’s always been a dual pathway. But roll ahead to the future, I think those attitudes are starting to shift, especially with the leadership taking strong steps to highlight the value and persuade people of the value of vocational and technical education in an age increasingly defined by high technology and specialized skills.

    AU: In 2019, the Chinese government introduced the National Vocational Education Reform Implementation Plan. What were its key elements? What were they trying to achieve?

    GP: That was a massive plan, introduced at a time when access to senior secondary education had reached about 50 percent, moving China past the stage of mass higher education and into universal higher education, with a postsecondary access rate of around 60 percent. The government’s approach was very strategic. They looked at their industrial development plans, identified key industries, and considered their long-term goals for funding science and technology, as well as for developing both high-level and mid-level skills.

    The aim was clear: to become the global leader in vocational education. This included strengthening the three-year diploma programs, which already make up nearly 50 percent of China’s higher education system and transforming many of the rapidly expanded provincial universities into application-oriented institutions offering bachelor’s degrees that are heavily vocational and technical in focus.

    I’ve seen this transformation firsthand through work with Asian Development Bank projects in provinces like Gansu and Yunnan. In Gansu, they built an entire city of vocational and technical education colleges, referred to as a “vocational technical city.” Yunnan, meanwhile, has become a model province for western China, pushing ahead with this initiative.

    This plan is not just about upgrading skills but also about providing jobs for graduates in a slowing economy, with GDP growth now at around 5 percent. It’s a highly ambitious and comprehensive effort to align education with the needs of both the labor market and the country’s economic development.

    AU: Let’s talk about vocational universities specifically. My understanding is that they come out of the same period or the same plan. How do they differ from traditional universities or vocational colleges? What makes their programming and curriculum unique?

    GP: Well, the first thing to note is that the entire system, including the top-tier universities, is now putting more emphasis on application-oriented skills. That said, the top universities—like the flagship and highly-ranked institutions—are focused on the rapid advancements in science, technology, and innovation, so there’s not as much of an issue there.

    But for the rest of the system, which is massive, the focus is aligning more closely with the labor market and economic needs. Vocational universities—now sometimes translated as Colleges of Applied Science or Universities of Applied Science—are distinct in their close relationship with industry. That’s the key element. They aim to bring industries much closer to the education system.

    This is challenging because many of the academics at these institutions were trained in traditional disciplines, often with PhDs, and they’re now being asked to collaborate with industry, which is more focused on production and profits. But that collaboration is crucial to the success of these institutions. At the upper levels, this is working quite well—for example, Huawei now employs a large number of PhD holders and is very application-oriented. But for the rest of the country, it’s more complex.

    State-owned enterprises are heavily encouraged to engage with these application-oriented universities. Meanwhile, the private sector, which is growing, also plays a significant role. Private vocational colleges or universities of applied science have a strong incentive to ensure their graduates get jobs—otherwise, they won’t attract students. This dynamic means there’s learning on both sides, with the public and private sectors influencing each other.

    Another distinct feature of these institutions is their emphasis on skills certification. Students earn credits for the skills they acquire, and a credit bank system is in place to support this. This allows students to build up credentials over time, aligning their education with workforce needs.

    AU: You raised something here that I think is kind of important because in India, they’re building what are called skills universities. I can’t quite figure out how they work or what they’re supposed to do, but there seems to be a big corporate aspect to them. For instance, they’re inviting industries directly to teach programs or design the curriculum. Is that also happening in Chinese vocational universities, whether public or private?

    GP: Well, I’ve only been to India a couple of times, so I wouldn’t claim to be an expert on the system there. But from what I’ve seen, they’re dealing with similar issues around skills training and apprenticeships for college students. That said, I think China is moving much faster in this respect.

    In China, there’s a real effort to bring industry into the universities. This involves recruiting members of companies to go into universities and teach, collaborate with academic staff, and form centers for training and experimentation. There are experimental vocational—or let’s call them colleges of applied science—being set up in cities all over the country. This is a very serious effort, and both the government and the Communist Party are strongly committed to making it work.

    China is also working on developing proper evaluation systems for this model, though that process is still underway. But the key is getting industry directly involved in the university, and that’s a central part of the plan. There’s also a focus on internationalization, with China being very open to learning from models around the world. For instance, I’ve been asked to introduce elements of the German model. I actually published a paper with a Chinese economist comparing the German model with China’s approach, and that’s been influential in shaping how this sector is developing.

    AU: Is this focus on vocationalization a reaction to high graduate unemployment from traditional universities? I recall that back in 2014, China planned to convert several universities into polytechnics. Is this part of the same trend?

    GP: Yes, I think the translations of the terms—whether you call them polytechnics, universities of applied science, or something else—don’t really matter too much. The key thing is that these are application-oriented bachelor’s degree programs. And the introduction of these degrees addresses a critical issue: families in China traditionally don’t want their children to go anywhere but academic higher education. But if a degree comes from a university, even if it’s vocationally oriented, that helps resolve concerns about the image of vocational education.

    Graduate unemployment is certainly a pressing issue. The economy is growing more slowly than before, and when you move from mass higher education to universal higher education—China’s access rate is now over 60%—it’s inevitable that this kind of challenge emerges. It’s partly a transitional phase, but it’s also something the government is addressing with both short-term measures and longer-term plans.

    I’ve seen this kind of thing before. For example, when I was a student in the United States during an economic downturn, graduate unemployment was a serious issue for several years. China is dealing with something similar now. It’s likely to take three, four, or even five years to turn things around, but the government is actively working on stimulus plans to address these short-term challenges.

    At the same time, they’re focusing on the longer-term development of a higher education system that aligns with the labor market and the country’s broader economic goals. It’s a significant concern, but I think they’re holding the line for now.

    AU: Sure. And so what’s student uptake like at these vocational universities? I mean, you said earlier that if their graduates don’t get jobs, then students won’t apply. So are students actually enrolling in these institutions? Do parents want their kids to attend? What’s the demand for this compared to traditional universities?

    GP: Well, the demand for education in China is still tremendous. It’s deeply rooted in Chinese civilization. Education is highly valued, and many of my own students, even in Hong Kong, have gone all the way through the system. If there were such a thing as a second or third doctorate, I’m sure they’d pursue that too. So yes, the demand is there, and the students are generally very good. There’s a heavy emphasis on education across the board.

    Now, when it comes to uptake, there’s a bit of a difference between the state-run system and the private sector. For public vocational universities, there’s no problem with enrollment because these are degree-granting programs. Degrees carry significant weight culturally, and parents and students see the value in them.

    The private sector is a different story. Private institutions don’t receive much government funding; they rely on student fees, investments, and donations. Some private vocational colleges are extremely successful and manage to compete well, but they need to deliver outcomes—mainly, good job placements—or they won’t attract students. What’s interesting is how the state system learns from the private sector. The private colleges have to be responsive to the labor market to survive, and their success in this area can influence public institutions.

    For the public system, though, uptake isn’t really an issue. Plus, there are opportunities for additional training. For example, if you have a bachelor’s degree and find that you need certain skills for the job market, you can take a “top-up” year to get the training you need. It’s a flexible system that adapts to labor market demands.

    AU: Right. Well, that’s very similar to our community colleges in Canada. Final question: as China continues to reform and expand its higher education system, what do you see as the future for vocational universities? Are they going to become a bigger part of the mix moving forward? And if so, will it be focused on certain fields, or do you see it expanding more broadly?

    GP: Vocational and technical higher education in China is already a major component of the higher education system, and it’s going to remain that way. One of the reasons for China’s productivity in areas like green skills, battery production for electric vehicles, and other technical aspects of the green economy is this strong foundation in vocational education.

    China has learned a lot from international experience—working with companies like Tesla, IBM, and John Deere—and it’s applying those lessons. The government’s plan is to go full throttle with higher vocational technical colleges, polytechnics, or colleges of applied science—whatever you want to call them. And they have a long-term strategy to ensure these institutions are central to their higher education system.

    I’d also expect that other countries in the region, particularly middle-income developing countries, will follow this path. China’s approach is setting an example for how to align higher education with economic development, especially in sectors that are crucial for the future.

    AU: Gerry, thanks so much for being with us today.

    GP: You’re very welcome.

    AU: And it just remains for me to thank our excellent producers, Tiffany MacLennan and Sam Pufek, and of course, you, our listener, for joining us. If you have any questions or suggestions for future episodes, please get in touch at [email protected]. Don’t forget to subscribe to our YouTube channel and join us next week for the final episode of the year, featuring Robert Kelchen from the University of Tennessee. He’ll share his top 10 stories in U.S. higher education. Bye for now.

    *This podcast transcript was generated using an AI transcription service with limited editing. Please forgive any errors made through this service.

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  • Technology’s Role in Helping Educators Navigate the Future of Learning

    Technology’s Role in Helping Educators Navigate the Future of Learning

    Our panel of experts discusses the biggest challenges facing educators today and how educational technology can help — if used properly.

    Melinda French Gates

    Philanthropist, Businesswoman, Author

    What is the biggest challenge you see educators facing today, especially women educators?

    The worst thing you can do is put a lot of pressure on yourself to fit in. I know because I’ve been there. What I learned is that I was much happier — and much more effective as a professional — when I found my own leadership style. My advice to anyone in that position today is this: You will succeed because of who you are, not in spite of it. In the meantime, surround yourself with people who believe in you and will bring out the best in you.

    What would you tell today’s educators to help them ignite a passion for STEM subjects in the next generation of female innovators?

    The best educators understand that many girls are interested in STEM subjects — and many girls are really good at STEM subjects — but they get interested in them at different times and for different reasons. For example, because girls don’t always get the same early exposure to STEM that boys do, their interest tends to develop later. While boys often get into tech through video games, girls are more likely to develop an interest in the subject when they see it as a way to solve real-world problems. Educators can help by introducing STEM to girls early, bringing these subjects to life, and telling the girls in their classes, “Hey, I think you’d be good at this.” 

    Sean Ryan

    President, McGraw Hill School

    What is the biggest challenge you see educators face today?

    The social context in which teachers operate poses immense challenges. Educating a child — though all are natural learners — has become more complex in recent years; more complex than I’ve seen in my entire education-related career. Poverty, social media, gun violence, ideology, belief systems, and the unrelenting advance of technology mean that what worked yesterday might be less relevant today, and what we might need tomorrow is harder to discern. That’s why as a curriculum and technology provider, we must stay in close contact with educators to ensure that we remain a worthy, agile, and, most importantly, trusted partner.

    Where do you see the adoption of education technology headed in the next year?

    Education technology has been deployed in a piecemeal fashion to serve a variety of specialized needs. Together, the promise is immense. Separately, confusion and frustration can ensue. The key, in my view, is systems integration to create an increasingly coherent digital learning environment that complements the physical classroom. However, this takes time. I’m less interested in new features and functionality and more enthusiastic about what happens to the teacher’s workload when core, intervention, and supplemental solutions work in harmony to ease the teacher’s burden. There will be progress next year, but it will be of an evolutionary nature, not revolutionary. You might not even notice it.

    With the increased use of education technology, how can we help keep teachers from burning out and ensure that technology enhances, rather than complicates, their instructional practices?

    Teachers have a near-impossible task of educating a class of students with a wide variety of demonstrated performance levels across subjects. The year of a child’s birth is a poor organizing principle. Given that principle is not likely to change any time soon, technology must be deployed thoughtfully to handle the administrative, logistic, and computational work that supports personalization at scale. Automation should absorb time-consuming tasks that teachers are taking home or missing lunch to complete. Let’s empower teachers to get to know their students, to create a vibrant learning environment that goes beyond a universal and rigid scope and sequence with a single subject.

    What advice would you give to educators, administrators, and policymakers as they navigate the increasingly complex landscape of educational technology solutions?

    Despite daily pressures, try to think long-term. Despite political difference, try to think universally. What is in the best interest of the students today? What is in the best interest of all of us outside of the classroom tomorrow? An educated polity is vital to improving the human experience. We are constantly planting and replanting democracy and the precursors of prosperity in the minds of the next generation. For it to take root, flourish, and grow, there must be constancy of purpose. It’s through the lens of that purpose that we can evaluate new technologies to determine if they serve or, perversely, demand servitude. Technology in isolation is neutral. Only in the context of human wants and needs can we determine if a technology is useful or harmful.

    How can K-12 schools address concerns of the digital divide, especially when it comes to equitable access to devices, internet connectivity, and high-quality content?

    It begins with measurement. Don’t assume national headlines reflect your local reality. Take time to understand the computing environment across buildings and between the homes of your students. We should neither assume a problem nor that there isn’t one. Once you know the state of things, administrators can go to work with trusted technology partners to close known gaps. Today, with the near ubiquity of devices and high-speed connectivity, there’s no reason to leave anyone out. This requires communication and cooperation between home and school. With respect to high-quality content, take the time to understand the differences between solutions. The lower the quality, the more grandiose the promises.  

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  • 2024 Election Results and Analysis of Future Policy Impacts

    2024 Election Results and Analysis of Future Policy Impacts

    by CUPA-HR | November 14, 2024

    The results of the 2024 election are in: Donald Trump will serve as the 47th president of the United States, while both the Senate and House of Representatives will be controlled by Republicans. With the Republican trifecta in the White House and Congress, Republicans can focus on passing their policy priorities through legislation in Congress and regulatory action at the federal agencies. CUPA-HR’s government relations team provides the following analysis to offer insight into possible leadership, policies and regulations we expect starting in January 2025.

    Federal Agencies and Congressional Committees

    Department of Labor

    The Department of Labor (DOL), overseen by the secretary of labor, directs policy and regulations for employers, workers, and retirees in the U.S. Throughout the election season, news organizations have speculated President-elect Trump’s potential picks for the secretary position, though who will be nominated will be unknown until Trump announces it. According to Politico, two possible candidates are Patrick Pizzella and Bryan Slater. Under the first Trump administration, Pizzella served as deputy secretary of labor and acting secretary of labor between former secretaries Alex Acosta and Eugene Scalia. Slater, who currently serves as Virginia’s secretary of labor, had also previously served as assistant secretary at DOL under the previous Trump administration.

    In addition to the secretary of labor, Trump will pick people to head the subagencies at DOL, including the Employee Benefits Security Administration, Occupational Safety and Health Administration, and Wage and Hour Division, among others. These agencies draft and implement regulations governing retirement and health benefits plans, workplace safety and health, and minimum wage and overtime pay requirements. Leaders of the DOL subagencies are typically selected later in the Cabinet-appointment process.

    National Labor Relations Board

    The party control of the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) depends on actions taken by the Senate during the lame-duck session between the election and President-elect Trump’s inauguration. Current chair of the NLRB Lauren McFerran’s term is set to expire in December 2024, but she has been renominated to serve on the board for another five years by President Biden. Senate Democrats, who are likely to push for her confirmation now that the Senate and White House will be Republican-controlled in 2025, will need to vote to confirm her position, only needing a simple majority. If confirmed, NLRB would be under Democratic control until at least August 2026, more than a year and a half into the Trump administration, leaving President Trump unable to obtain a Republican majority on the board — and thereby control the policy at the NLRB — for nearly half of his second term.

    Despite possibly not having control of the NLRB, President Trump may choose to fire the NLRB General Counsel Jennifer Abruzzo (Democrat), whose term is not set to expire until July 2025. In 2021, President Biden terminated then-General Counsel Peter Robb (Republican) within hours of his inauguration, despite Robb’s term not ending until November of that same year. This was the first time any sitting president had fired a sitting general counsel at an independent agency for policy differences. Federal courts upheld Robb’s termination, so President Trump is highly likely to terminate Abruzzo immediately upon taking office. As a reminder, Abruzzo issued several memos stating her position regarding employment status for student-athletes, severance agreements, and disclosure obligations under the National Labor Relations Act and Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act, all of which would likely be rescinded by Trump’s NLRB general counsel appointee.

    Equal Employment Opportunity Commission

    Unless a commissioner leaves their post before their term expires, the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) will maintain a Democrat majority (currently 3-1, with one Republican seat vacant) until July 2026. Despite this, President-elect Trump is likely to appoint Commissioner Andrea Lucas to serve as chair of the EEOC. Lucas and the EEOC would be limited in their ability to adopt new policies or reverse actions taken by the Democrat-controlled commission prior to July 2026. At that time, we expect the Republican-controlled EEOC to issue revised guidance that narrows the scope of the agency’s interpretation of Title VII protections in light of Bostock v. Clayton County and the legality of diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives in employment practices, possibly extending legal principles established under the Students for Fair Admission v. Harvard case.

    Similar to the NLRB, we expect that President-elect Trump will replace the current EEOC General Counsel Karla Gilbride (Democrat). In her role, Gilbride has litigated on behalf of the EEOC in federal court, but the position typically does not provide policy recommendations to the full commission like the NLRB general counsel does.

    Department of Education

    The Department of Education (ED) oversees and implements policy and regulations governing federal assistance to education. With respect to higher education, ED governs issues like federal financial aid, Title IX compliance, and other laws aimed at promoting student success. Under the incoming Trump administration, Politico has speculated that there are a few possible contenders who could ultimately lead the agency.

    One possible candidate for ED’s secretary is Betsy DeVos, who served as secretary of education during Trump’s first term. During DeVos’ first term as ED secretary, she led the agency to implement the 2020 Title IX regulations that are still currently in place in 26 states and hundreds of schools around the country, pending legal challenges to the Biden administration’s rule. However, DeVos resigned from her position as secretary of education after the January 6, 2021, riots at the U.S. Capitol, which may lead the incoming Trump administration to search for new candidates. Despite her resignation, DeVos has indicated that she is open to discussions about potentially serving in the role again.

    As we also discuss below, Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-NC) will be stepping down from her role as chair of the House Education and the Workforce Committee, where she most recently led an investigation into antisemitism on campus in higher education. This, along with her previous experience serving as an English instructor and president of a community college, may set her up for a bid for the secretary position.

    Some additional names that have been discussed by Politico are Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, Oklahoma State Superintendent of Public Instruction Ryan Walters, and Moms for Liberty founder Tiffany Justice.

    House Education and the Workforce Committee

    Republicans held control of the House in the 2024 election, but there will still be some shakeup in leadership for the Education and Workforce Committee. Chair of the committee Virginia Foxx will be stepping down from her role, leaving open the Republican leader position of the Committee. The two front-runners to chair the committee are Reps. Tim Walberg (R-MI) and Burgess Owens (R-UT), both currently serving on the committee. Notably, Walberg has served on the committee for 16 years, and Owens currently serves as the chair of the Higher Education and Workforce Development Subcommittee. For Democrats, current ranking member of the committee Bobby Scott (D-VA) is expected to maintain his position as leader of the Committee Democrats.

    Walberg and Owens have both publicized their policy priorities. Walberg has stated that, under his leadership, the committee would focus on legislation to make college more affordable, boost apprenticeships, implement a short-term Pell grant for workforce training programs, and reauthorize the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act. Owens hopes to steer the committee with a more education-centric focus, stating that top priorities for him are school choice and oversight into how ED uses its funding.

    Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee

    Republicans in the Senate gained control during the 2024 election, flipping the previously Democrat-controlled chamber. As a result, Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA) will likely rise to the role of chair on the Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee. Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) will shift into the ranking member position after serving as the chair of the full committee in the 118th Congress. Before his political career, Cassidy was a physician, meaning he could pivot the committee to focus more on health policy. Despite this, Cassidy has also advocated for the HELP committee to advance a Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act reauthorization bill, and he has advocated for the committee to focus on other education issues as well.

    Policy Implications of the Election

    FLSA Overtime

    As you already know, the Biden administration is in the process of implementing their FLSA overtime regulations. The final rule took a two-phased approach to increasing the minimum salary threshold. The first increase raised the salary threshold to $43,888 per year and took effect on July 1, 2024. The second increase would raise the salary threshold to $58,656 per year and is set to take effect on January 1, 2025. The regulations are currently being challenged in a federal district court in Texas, where a preliminary injunction to block the rule from taking effect has been placed only for public employers in the state of Texas. It remains to be seen how the federal judge will rule on the lawsuits, though a hearing for the cases was held on November 8 and a ruling is imminent.

    As the Trump administration will not take office until after the January 1 threshold, the regulation will take effect, pending further appeals, if the final rule is upheld in federal court. If the rule is struck down, we expect the Trump administration will let the court’s decision remain and make no further effort to appeal the decision. If the Trump administration decides to increase the minimum salary threshold during this upcoming term, they will likely use the methodology from the 2019 rule to increase the threshold.

    Title IX

    Similar to the overtime final rule, the Biden administration issued Title IX regulations in 2024 that are also facing legal challenges. The Biden administration’s Title IX rule took effect on August 1, 2024, but several lawsuits challenging the rule have resulted in preliminary injunctions blocking ED from enforcing it in 26 states and hundreds of other schools in states that did not challenge the final rule.

    The Biden administration’s regulations replaced the previous Trump administration’s 2020 Title IX regulations. If the regulations are upheld in federal court, we expect that the incoming secretary of education will repeal the Biden administration’s regulations in favor of keeping the 2020 regulations in effect across the country.

    Immigration

    There are several policies and regulations that CUPA-HR has been tracking on the immigration front that face uncertain futures under the incoming Trump administration. During the first term, the Trump administration placed a proposed rule on the regulatory agenda aiming to restrict the Optional Practical Training  program, which allows international students who graduate from U.S. institutions to work in their degree-related field for at least 12 months after graduating. The Trump administration also finalized a couple of final rules that would have increased wage obligations for H-1B visas and narrowed eligibility for H-1B visas to positions that qualified as “specialty occupations.” These rules were struck down in court, so while Trump is unlikely to implement the same rules, we could see similar attempts to increase H-1B wage obligations and narrow the H-1B program.

    Additionally, the incoming Trump administration will likely look to reverse policies implemented by the Department of Homeland Security under the Biden administration, including dropping any appeal of the recent court ruling against the “Keeping Families Together” program for undocumented spouses and children of U.S. citizens, as well as rescinding the guidance to streamline the H-1B visa waiver process for Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) recipients. Similarly, if the Biden administration does not finalize the H-1B modernization rule before the end of his term, a new Trump administration may seek to implement a more restrictive version, reshaping the rule to reflect its own priorities rather than those outlined in the Biden administration’s October 2023 proposal.

    Legislative Priorities

    With Republicans controlling both the House and the Senate, legislative priorities should be mostly aligned between the two chambers and the White House. However, their ability to pass legislation will still depend on bipartisan support, as Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House and do not have a large enough majority in the Senate to bypass the 60-vote filibuster. Despite these challenges, we expect Republicans to focus on issues like paid leave, workforce development, and affordable college and workforce training.

    Though paid leave is a priority for both parties, Republicans and Democrats have previously not agreed on the best approach to establish it through federal legislation. In his first term, Trump and other Republicans backed paid leave legislation that allowed parents to collect a portion of their future child tax credits early to use for leave and receive smaller credits in the following years. This proposal ran counter to the Democrat-supported Family and Medical Insurance Leave (FAMILY) Act, which would establish a payroll tax to fund a paid family and medical leave program that can be used to pay workers who are new parents or who are caring for their own health issues or those of their family. Republicans and Democrats will need to find a compromise if they are to pass any paid leave legislation in the upcoming Congress, as they will need 60 votes in the Senate to bypass a filibuster.

    Despite their differences on paid leave, Republicans and Democrats have made bipartisan efforts to pass legislation to improve workforce development and create a short-term Pell grant. During this Congress, both the House and Senate have worked to pass legislation to reauthorize the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act, which serves as the nation’s primary federal workforce development legislation designed to help Americans receive training and support to obtain skills necessary for high-quality jobs and careers. Additionally, there has been bipartisan support to pass legislation that would expand the Pell grant program to cover short-term workforce development and training programs that are outside the traditional higher education path. Again, Republicans and Democrats will need to find consensus on these issues in order to bypass the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster, but bipartisan issues like workforce development and short-term Pell grants appear to have a possible path to becoming law.

    CUPA-HR is hosting a 2024 election analysis webinar on November 21 at 12 PM ET. Registration is free for CUPA-HR members. Additional updates will be provided through future blogs and Washington Insider alerts.



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  • The Future of Online Learning Brands

    The Future of Online Learning Brands

    Embracing a “One School” Approach for a Better Student Experience

    Let’s draw a line in the sand. On one side, we have a university campus and its on-ground offerings. On the other side, we have the digital higher education space and the online programs that live within it. 

    Traditionally, this line has been stark and rigid, with universities treating the two modalities as separate entities with dedicated teams, technology, systems, budgets, and strategies. 

    The initial separation was, in part, driven by the perception of online education as a lesser counterpart to its on-ground equivalent. This view may have held some truth in the early stages of digital learning. But the division has come with a cost, as institutions have had to do double the work, which is inefficient. 

    We can all see that significant changes are underway. Traditional educational boundaries are fading, with online learning gaining respect and sophistication. There are online programs that outpace their on-ground counterparts in quality and rigor. We’re looking at a future where traditional, hybrid, and online modalities are integrated, balancing both quality and accessibility. 

    As we leave the comfort of land and head out to sea, embracing a holistic approach is the way forward for universities.

    Separation Comes at a Cost 

    The traditional division between on-ground and online learning modalities increases costs and complicates operations for institutions, weakening their ability to present a unified, powerful brand to prospective students. Here are a few of the pain points: 

    Fragmented Systems

    Multiple Platforms: Utilizing different customer relationship management (CRM) systems, student information systems (SIS), and learning management systems (LMS) introduces inefficiencies. Each platform requires its own set of training, maintenance, and integration protocols. Those protocols often don’t integrate well, either.

    Increased Costs: The need to support various tech stacks and administrative systems significantly drives up operational costs, as resources are duplicated across the board.

    Conflicting Marketing Strategies

    Brand Fragmentation: With separate marketing teams for its on-ground and online programs, an institution risks sending mixed messages to potential students. This can lead to brand dilution and confusion about what the university stands for.

    Measurement Challenges: Disparate strategies make it difficult to track and analyze the effectiveness of marketing efforts. This makes the decisions on where to invest marketing dollars effectively difficult.

    Diluted Resources

    Split Focus: Dividing an institution’s time, talent, and budget between its on-ground and online initiatives means neither receives the full investment needed to thrive. This can result in underperforming programs that fail to meet their potential.

    By managing resources under one unified strategy, universities can maximize the impact of their educational offerings, ensuring that both online and on-ground programs benefit from full institutional support and cohesion.              

    Advances in Online Learning Have Closed the Quality Gap 

    Technology is rapidly advancing, and higher ed is keeping pace with the changes. As institutions become more skilled at applying learning technologies, the following shifts have occurred: 

    Today, online courses match on-ground courses in their rigor and depth and offer the flexibility and accessibility that modern students demand. It’s a win-win. The shift isn’t just about maintaining academic standards; it’s about enhancing them to make education more inclusive and adaptable to students’ varied lifestyles.             

    The Case for a “One School” Strategy 

    As the distinction between online and on-ground academic quality becomes murkier, more universities are beginning to embrace a “one school” strategy. This holistic approach integrates online and on-ground modalities into a single, unified brand, ensuring a seamless and coherent student experience. 

    It’s kind of like how my son doesn’t see the athletics department, student advising, and his faculty members as being on different teams with different budget sources. They all make up one thing — his university and the way it feels to be a student. 

    By operating under a single brand, universities can streamline their processes, unify their messaging, and bolster their identity, enhancing their appeal in a competitive educational market. The unified brand experience provides students with a consistent set of resources and support mechanisms, which proves crucial in building trust and satisfaction.

    The shift toward a one school strategy also aligns with the evolving preferences and expectations of students, particularly their growing desire for flexible learning environments. Modern students increasingly favor hybrid experiences — asynchronous learning modules combined with synchronous meetings. This allows them to manage their schedules while benefiting from real-time interactions. 

    Adopting this approach not only improves the overall experience for students but also positions institutions to more effectively manage their resources, enhance their operational efficiency, and strengthen their academic offerings across the board, redefining the educational experience to be more inclusive and adaptable to today’s learners. 

    Adopting a one school approach helps universities accomplish goals such as the following:

    1. Establish a Unified Systems and Technology Stack

    Currently, the existence of different application systems for different modalities often leads to disparate experiences and management challenges, increasing the risk of students falling through the cracks. A unified technology stack can address these issues, fostering a more integrated and seamless educational environment.

    Using the same CRM and SIS systems across an organization can significantly streamline operations in all areas, from marketing through student retention. This unification not only reduces operational costs but also consolidates institutional data, enabling more effective tracking and support of student activities. 

    2. Create an Integrated Marketing Strategy

    Universities often work with multiple marketing agencies that compete against each other using similar keywords but with slightly different visuals and landing pages. Bad idea. This not only dilutes the marketing efforts but also creates confusion for students who are comparing programs. 

    An integrated approach helps streamline these efforts, ensuring a cohesive, clear marketing message that effectively attracts and retains students.

    3. Align Academic and Enrollment Calendars 

    A particularly troubling symptom of separate identities within a university is differing enrollment calendars for online and on-ground offerings. Online programs typically offer more start dates throughout the year. 

    With a single enrollment calendar, however, universities can eliminate this confusion and simplify the experience for students who might engage in both modalities. Additionally, as faculty members frequently teach in both online and on-ground formats, a unified calendar ensures that all students have equal access to faculty resources, regardless of the learning format. 

    A Note on Organizational … Resistance 

    While the theoretical benefits of integrating online and on-ground educational modalities are clear, the practical implementation can face organizational resistance. This stems from the “this is the way we’ve always done it” mindset, presenting real challenges in terms of system integration and cultural adaptation. 

    Addressing these challenges requires a strategic approach and readiness to tackle potential roadblocks. Here are a few things to keep in mind:

    You Don’t Have to Implement the One School Model Alone

    Starting the journey toward overhauling the outdated model and creating a unified experience can be complex and challenging, but you don’t have to navigate it alone. 

    Archer Education is equipped to empower your institution at every step with our growth enablement approach, offering expert guidance in storytelling, technology, audience insights, and data analytics to support a seamless transition to the one school model. Then, once things are up and running, you’ll have the internal knowledge and capacities you need to cast us out to sea. 

    Contact us to learn more about how we can help you integrate your educational offerings and maximize the potential of your institution.

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  • the future of learning design. – Sijen

    the future of learning design. – Sijen

    There is a looming skills deficit across all disciplines currently being taught in Universities today. The vast majority of degree programmes are, at best, gradual evolutions of what has gone before. At their worst they are static bodies of knowledge transmission awaiting a young vibrant new member of faculty to reignite them. Internal reviews are too often perfunctory exercises, seldom challenging the future direction of graduates as long as pass rates are sustained. That is until is to late and failure rates point to a ‘problem’ at a fundamental level around a degree design.

    We, collectively, are at the dawn of a new knowledge-skills-cognition revolution. The future of the professionals has been discussed for some years now. It will be a creeping, quiet, revolution (Susskind and Susskind, 2017). Although we occasionally hear about some fast food business firing all of its front-of-house staff in favour of robotic manufacturing processes and A.I. Ordering services, the reality is that in the majority of contexts the intelligent deployment of A.I. to enhance business operations requires humans to describe how these systems operate with other humans. This is because at present none of these systems score highly on any markers or Emotional Intelligence or EQ.

    Image generaed by Windows Copilot

    Arguably it has become increasingly important to ensure that graduates from any and all disciplines have been educated as to how to describe what they do and why they do it. They need to develop a higher degree of comfort with articulating each thought process and action taken. To do this we desperately need course and programme designers to desist from just describing (and therefore assessing) purely cognitive (intellectual) skills as described by Bloom et.al, and limit themselves to one or two learning outcomes using those formulations. Instead they need to elevate the psychomotor skills in particular, alongside an increasing emphasis on interpersonal ones.

    Anyone who has experimented with prompting any large language model (LLM) will tell you the language used falls squarely under the psychomotor domain. At the lowest levels one might ask to match, copy, imitate, then at mid-levels of skill deployment one might prompt a system to organise, calibrate, compete or show, rating to the highest psychomotor order of skills to ask A.I. systems to define, specify, even imagine. This progressive a type of any taxonomy allows for appropriate calibration of input and output. The ability to use language, to articulate, is an essential skill. There are some instructive (ad entertaining) YouTube videos of parents supporting their children to write instructions (here’s a great example), a skill that is seldom further developed as young people progress into tertiary studies.

    Being able to assess this skill is also challenging. When one was assessing text-based comprehension, even textual analysis, then one could get away with setting an essay question and having a semi-automated process for marking against a rudimentary rubric. Writing instructions, or explanations, of the task carried out, is not the same as verbally describing the same task. Do we imagine that speech recognition technology won’t become an increasingly part of many productive job roles. Not only do courses and programmes need to be designed around a broader range of outcomes, we also need to be continuously revising our assessment opportunities for those outcomes.

    References

    Susskind, R., & Susskind, D. (2017). The Future of the Professions: How Technology Will Transform the Work of Human Experts (Reprint edition). OUP Oxford.

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