National study from Collegis Education and UPCEA highlights opportunity for institutions to strengthen student persistence through better alignment of strategy, systems, and support
WASHINGTON, D.C. and CHICAGO, IL – February 4, 2026 — As adult learners account for a growing share of higher education enrollment, colleges and universities face increasing pressure to sustain persistence in online programs. A new national study, “The Retention Disconnect: What Learners Need and What Institutions Miss,” released by UPCEA and Collegis Education, examines where institutional assumptions about retention diverge from learners’ lived experiences—and how realigning support strategies can improve outcomes, protect revenue, and better meet students where they are.
The study found that 48% of institutional leaders cannot confidently report their online retention rate, indicating a visibility gap that makes it harder to evaluate which approaches are most effective for learners. As institutions face enrollment pressure tied to demographic shifts and slower net-new growth, retention is increasingly viewed as a critical lever for stability. The findings underscore the need not for more activity, but for clearer insight into what actually supports persistence.
Surveying 1,015 online learners and 54 institutional leaders, the research reveals that while 75% of learners say it is “easy” to stay enrolled, nearly one in five has still considered stopping out. The gap suggests that persistence hinges less on online learner motivation and more on how effectively institutions anticipate, support, and align with students’ academic and life realities.
Left unaddressed, these misalignments carry meaningful consequences. Attrition is estimated to cost institutions millions in lost tuition revenue annually, particularly in graduate and online programs where retention is central to long-term growth.
Key Research Findings:
- Many institutions lack a consistent measurement of online retention, limiting informed decision-making.
- Learners prioritize self-service and visibility: 87% rate progress dashboards highly valuable, while institutions tend to emphasize staff-driven interventions.
- Retention risks vary significantly by life stage, reinforcing the limits of one-size-fits-all strategies
- Career advancement is the leading enrollment driver, yet learners frequently report misalignment between coursework and professional goals
- Financial pressure, work demands, and caregiving responsibilities remain the top reasons learners consider stopping out
“Retention today is less about adding more touchpoints and more about intentional design,” said Tracy A. Chapman, Chief Academic Officer at Collegis Education. “Institutions seeing progress are those that align their strategies around how learners actually move through education—creating clarity, relevance, and timely support that helps persistence scale.”
The research also found that while many institutions invest heavily in alerts and structured outreach, learners place greater value on flexibility, autonomy, and transparency. When these preferences are not reflected in institutional design, retention efforts can miss critical moments that influence whether students persist.
“Adult learners are reshaping expectations across higher education, and institutions are under increasing pressure to demonstrate outcomes,” said Emily West, Senior Market Research Analyst at UPCEA. “This research shows that improving retention isn’t about doing more—it’s about understanding professional learners better and meeting their needs.”
Implications for University Leaders
The findings highlight an opportunity for institutions to strengthen persistence by improving visibility into retention outcomes and aligning support with different learner profiles and life stages. Programs that provide clearer pathways, relevant coursework, and timely guidance are better positioned to sustain momentum. In a competitive environment, retention increasingly reflects institutional design as much as student effort.
UPCEA will host a webinar on February 11 at 1 pm EST to explore the research findings and actionable strategies. Registration details are available at: https://collegiseducation.com/insights/the-retention-disconnect-webinar/
About UPCEA
UPCEA is the online and professional education association. Our members continuously reinvent higher education, positively impacting millions of lives. We proudly lead and support them through cutting-edge research, professional development, networking and mentorship, conferences and seminars, and stakeholder advocacy. Our collaborative, entrepreneurial community brings together decision-makers and influencers in education, industry, research, and policy interested in improving educational access and outcomes. Learn more at upcea.edu.
About Collegis Education
As a mission-oriented, tech-enabled services provider, Collegis Education partners with higher education institutions to help align operations to drive transformative impact across the entire student lifecycle. With over 25 years as an industry pioneer, Collegis has proven how to leverage insights, systems, and expertise to optimize institutions’ business processes that enhance the student experience. With the strategic capabilities that rival the leading consultancies, a full suite of proven service lines, including marketing, enrollment, retention, IT, and its world-class Connected Core® platform, Collegis helps its partners enable impact and drive revenue, growth, and innovation. Learn more at CollegisEducation.com.
Media Contacts:
Collegis Education
Alyssa Miller
973-615-1292