Category: Data

  • Data: who’ll be worst affected by England’s international fee levy?

    Data: who’ll be worst affected by England’s international fee levy?

    Long-awaited details of the mooted levy on international students at English universities – due to take effect in 2028 – were released with Rachel Reeves’ Budget earlier this week to a largely negative reaction from international education stakeholders.

    Instead of the expected 6% tax on international student income suggested in the immigration white paper, the Treasury is instead consulting on a £925-per-international-student flat fee.

    However, under the proposals, each provider will receive an allowance covering their first 220 international students each year – meaning that many small or specialist institutions will be spared the tax.

    But larger institutions with higher numbers of international students will bear the brunt of the levy.

    HESA data from the 2023/24 academic year – the most recently available figures – gives an indication of which providers could be worst hit by the levy, although enrolment numbers may have changed since then and could shift dramatically before the policy finally comes into effect.

    London is the region set to be most impacted by the levy, with England’s capital welcoming the most international students. Meanwhile, the North East had the fewest.

    Here’s our round up of the top five institutions that risk losing out the most.

    University College London (UCL)

    Of the 614,000 international students at English institutions in the 2023/24 academic year, UCL was home to the largest amount, at 27,695.

    Under the proposals, if UCL had the same number of international students under the levy, it would be liable to pay over £25 million.

    The University of Manchester

    Coming in second is the University of Manchester, which had 19,475 international students in 2023/24. This would mean it would have to pay almost £18m under the levy proposals.

    The University of Hertfordshire

    In third place is the University of Hertfordshire, with 19,235 international students in 2023/24 – a levy amount of just over £17.5m.

    Kings College London

    Up next is Kings College London, with 15,850 international students, meaning it would be taxed a little under £14.5m

    The University of Leeds

    Another large metropolitan university set to be hit hard by the levy is the University of Leeds, with 15,605 international students. If enrolments numbers stay the same into 2028, it could face costs of over £14.2m.

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  • Study visa applications to NZ dip, approval rate jumps nearly 7%

    Study visa applications to NZ dip, approval rate jumps nearly 7%

    According to data highlighted by Immigration New Zealand (INZ), the government agency responsible for managing the country’s immigration system, the first 10 months of 2025 saw 55,251 study visa applications, down from 58,361 in the same period last year.

    However, approval rates have risen sharply. In 2024, INZ approved 42,724 of 58,361 applications (81.5%) and declined 9,161 (17.5%). Meanwhile, in 2025, despite fewer applications at 55,251, approvals rose to 43,203 (88.2%) with 5,317 declined (10.9%).

    NZ sets itself apart from other key study destinations

    Even as major anglophone study destinations take a cautious approach to international education policy, New Zealand is aiming to be an outlier in the market.

    The country is looking to boost international student enrolments from 83,700 to 119,000 by 2034 and double the sector’s value to NZD$7.2 billion (GBP £3.2bn) under the recently launched International Education Going for Growth plan.

    This month, new rules came into effect allowing eligible international tertiary and secondary students with visas from November 3 to work up to 25 hours a week, up from 20, while a new short-term work visa for some vocational graduates is also expected to be introduced soon.

    “As part of the International Education Going for Growth Plan, changes were announced to immigration settings to support sustainable growth and enhance New Zealand’s appeal as a study destination. These changes aim to maintain education quality while managing immigration risk,” Celia Coombes, director of visas for INZ, told The PIE.

    “Immigration New Zealand (INZ) and Education New Zealand (ENZ) work in close partnership to achieve these goals.”

    We have more students applying for Pathway Visas year on year, which means more visas granted for longer periods, and less ‘year by year’ applications
    Celia Coombes, Immigration New Zealand

    Why the drop in study visa applications?

    While study visa approval rates have skyrocketed over the past year — a stark contrast to the Covid period, when universities across New Zealand faced massive revenue losses owing to declining numbers — stakeholders point to a mix of factors behind the drop in new applications.

    “There has been an increase in approvals, but overall, a slight decrease in the number of students applying for a visa. However, interest in New Zealand continues to grow,” stated Coombes, who added that the number of individuals holding a valid study visa rose to 58,192 in August 2025, up from 45,512 a year earlier.

    “We have more students applying for Pathway Visas year on year, which means more visas granted for longer periods, and less ‘year by year’ applications.”

    While multi-year pathway visas can cover a full planned study path, reducing the need for repeated applications, Richard Kensington, an NZ-based international education consultant, says refinements could make the route more effective in attracting international students.

    “The Pathway Visa, introduced nearly a decade ago as a trial, has never been fully expanded. Although reviews are complete and the scheme is set to become permanent, no additional providers have been given access,” stated Kensington.

    “Simple refinements — such as allowing pathways to a broad university degree rather than a specific named programme — would encourage more students to utilise this route.”

    The drop could also be linked to the underdeveloped school sector and the slower recovery of New Zealand’s vocational education sector, as noted by Kensington.

    “The school sector remains one of New Zealand’s most untapped international education markets. Demand is growing, especially from families where a parent wishes to accompany the student. The Guardian Parent Visa makes that a viable option,” stated Kensington.

    “Vocational education hasn’t rebounded in the same way. The loss of work rights for sub-degree diplomas has significantly reduced demand from traditional migration markets.”

    New Zealand’s vocational education woes

    Just this year, the New Zealand government announced the disestablishment of Te Pūkenga, the country’s largest vocational education provider, formed through the merger of 16 Institutes of Technology and Polytechnics.

    It is being replaced by 10 standalone polytechnics, following concerns that the model had become too costly and centralised.

    “Te Pūkenga’s rise and fall created real confusion offshore. With standalone polytechnics returning, we should see greater stability from 2026 onwards,” Kensington added.

    “Many polytechnics are now relying on degree and master’s programmes, putting them in more direct competition with universities.”

    Applications fall in China, climb in India

    As per data shared by INZ on decided applications across both 2024 and 2025 — including on ones submitted in earlier years — countries like India (+2.7%), Nepal (+26.8%), Germany (+5.2%), and the Philippines (+7.8%) have seen growth in the number of study visas approved.

    Meanwhile, many East and Southeast Asian markets have recorded year-on-year declines, most notably the largest sending market, China, which dropped by 9.9%.

    The data shows that while 16,568 study visas were approved for China in January–October 2024, this fell to 14,929 in 2025 though it remains the largest source country.

    Other markets such as Japan (-9.7%), South Korea ( -24.8%), and Thailand (-33.7%) also saw significant declines.

    According to Frank Xing, director of marketing and operations at Novo Education Consulting, the slowdown from China is clear, with weaker student interest reflected in both their enquiries and feedback from partners, and echoed by some New Zealand institutions.

    “It’s a mixed picture — a few schools, particularly in the secondary sector, are still doing well, but many providers are starting to feel the impact,” stated Xing, who believes several factors are driving the slowdown.

    “The first is the weaker Chinese economy — many families have been affected by job losses or lower business income. In the past, property assets often helped families fund overseas study, but the real estate downturn has reduced that flexibility,” he added, also noting New Zealand’s own unemployment challenges and competition from lower-cost destinations.

    “We’ve actually seen some students abandon their New Zealand study plans or switch to more affordable destinations such as Malaysia or parts of Europe.”

    According to Xing, while China remains one of New Zealand schools’ strongest markets, this could change as Chinese families place greater emphasis on career outcomes — an area where New Zealand’s slower job market remains a challenge.

    He added that New Zealand’s role as the 2025 Country of Honour at China’s premier education expo could help raise awareness among prospective students.

    False applications remain a major concern

    For Education New Zealand and INZ, the more immediate challenge now lies in addressing fraudulent applications, according to Coombes.

    “New Zealand sees a lot of false financial documents. To address this and help ensure students have the money they need to live and study in New Zealand, we are improving processes to maintain integrity and streamline processing,” stated Coombes.

    “This includes expanding the Funds Transfer Scheme, where students deposit their living costs in New Zealand, and they are released monthly.”

    According to Kensington, some agencies across South Asia and likely parts of Africa, where New Zealand has limited representation may not meet required standards, creating challenges. However, he believes improved processing is reducing the impact.

    “INZ only accepts financial evidence from specific banks in some jurisdictions. Student loans must be secured; unsecured loans aren’t accepted even from major banks,” stated Kensington.

    “It’s hard to say whether fraud is increasing, but the rise in high-quality applications means INZ can process many files quickly and devote more time to forensic checks where needed.”

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  • Canada bears the brunt of ‘big four’ woes

    Canada bears the brunt of ‘big four’ woes

    The study, conducted by ApplyBoard, highlighted the absence of consistent communication around policy shifts in Canada, the US, UK and Australia last year – a persistent issue that it said would likely drive subdued demand across the four in 2026. 

    Although a slowdown in Canada was widely expected, ApplyBoard CEO Meti Basiri said the projected 54% decline in new study permits this year was “stark”, setting Canada on track to issue the lowest total international study visas of the big four in 2025.  

    As per ApplyBoard estimates, Canada will see the sharpest drop in new international students, granting just 80,000 postsecondary study visas this year, while the US and Australia are set to see less dramatic drops.

    The UK – the only ‘big four’ destination without a projected decline – is on track to maintain 2024 study visa issuance levels, in line new Home Office data showing a 7% increase in applications this year, though this could be slightly tempered by pending changes proposed by the immigration white paper.

    Source: ApplyBoard.

    Basiri said Canada’s projected 80,000 new study permits would mark the lowest number of post-secondary approvals for the past decade, including during the pandemic. Elsewhere, stakeholders have raised concerns about the country’s plummeting study visa approval rate, which dropped below 40% this year.

    As the government pursues its goal of reducing Canada’s temporary resident population to below 5% by the end of 2027, the sector has been hit with two years of federal policy changes leading to lower application volumes, lower approval rates, and a higher proportion of onshore extensions.

    At the same time, in a recent student survey, Canada scored highly on welcomeness – with roughly 71% of students viewing it as open, safe and welcoming – but it also had one of the highest levels of disagreement for this metric. 

    “That polarisation suggests that international students are picking up on the tension between Canada’s long-standing reputation, and the current reality of caps, more limited work rights, and public debate that often links international students to housing and affordability pressures,” said Basiri.

    The report highlighted the impact of domestic political pressures around housing and net migration causing governments to tighten visa requirements, impose caps, reduce post-study work streams and raise compliance thresholds.  

    However, Basiri said the deciding factor for students increasingly came down to financial considerations, including the cost of study, cost of living and the ability to work during and after their studies.  

    “While political decisions set the rules of the game, affordability is often the filter through which students evaluate those rules – making it the more powerful force driving more students to consider more financially accessible destinations across Europe and the Asia-Pacific region,” he said.  

    “The speed at which alternative destinations are stepping up is remarkable,” Basiri added, highlighting the efforts of Germany, France, Spain, New Zealand, South Korea, and the UAE establishing clearer career pathways and expanding work rights, among other factors to boost internationalisation. 

    The speed at which alternative destinations are stepping up is remarkable

    Meti Basiri, ApplyBoard

    While traditional destinations are experiencing dips in demand, overall international student mobility continues to flourish, with more than 10 million students expected to study outside their home countries by the end of the decade, up from 6.9m in 2024.  

    The emergence of alternative destinations has not gone unnoticed, with another recent report tracking the rise of education “powerhouses” across Asia, fuelled by more English-taught programs, growing job opportunities and affordable study options.  

    Meanwhile, Europe is catching students’ attention, with European countries accounting for eight out of the top 10 destinations – outside the big four, Germany and Ireland – in ApplyBoard’s recent survey of student advisors.

    Basiri identified Germany and Spain as the destinations poised for the most growth next year: “Each offers a strong combination of affordability, workforce alignment, and clear post-study pathways that align with student priorities … Together, they are helping to shape the next wave of student mobility,” he said. 

    The rise of Germany in recent years has been widely reported on across the sector, with international enrolments on track to surpass 400,000 last year. What’s more, two-thirds of Germany’s international students say they intend to stay and work in the country after graduating.  

    Meanwhile, this summer the Spanish government authorised a policy to fast-track international students impacted by US visa restrictions, alongside authorising part-time work for students this academic year.  

    Coupled with previous measures relaxing visa requirements and new work and dependents rights, Spain is becoming “one of the most student-friendly destinations in Europe” said Basiri, noting its heightened appeal among Latin American students due to language and cultural affinities, as well as streamlined routes into the workforce.  

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  • UK study visa applications up 7% while dependant numbers plummet

    UK study visa applications up 7% while dependant numbers plummet

    New Home Office migration statistics show the full effect of an almost outright ban on dependants – with numbers dropping sharply for the second year in a row since the policy was announced.

    While there were 419,558 main applications for UK study visas in the year ending September 2025, marking a 7% increase on the previous year, there were 20,366 dependants – a 57% decrease year on year.

    It marks the second consecutive year of falling dependants, with this number decreasing annually by a whopping 87% in the year ending September 2024.

    It follows new rules introduced in January 2024 to ban students on postgraduate-taught programs from bringing their dependants with them to the UK.

    The number of UK study visas issued to international students and their dependants rose sharply after 2016 – reaching a post-Covid peak of 652,072 in 2023. Now, since the dependants ban, the number of study visas issued has fallen to 439,924.

    According to the Home Office, there has been roughly one dependant for every 20 main study visa applicants since the year ending March 2025 – a stark decline since the year ending September 2023, when this number stood at six per 20 main applicants.

    Source: Home Office

    Indian students were issued the most sponsored study visas in the year ending September 2025, with 99,18 visas issued. Chinese students made up the second biggest cohort – with 89,397 visas issued, 15% fewer than the previous year.

    Pakistani students were the third biggest group – issued 39,924 study visas, while there were gains for Nepali students (up 89% to 20,572) and Nigerian students (up 56% to 30,009).

    According to James Pitman, chairman of Independent Higher Education (IHE) and CEO of Studygroup, the effect of the dependants ban has been discriminatory – disproportionately affecting women.

    Speaking in a personal capacity at yesterday’s IHE annual conference, Pitman acknowledged that the dependants visa has “a major flaw”, but said that this could have been corrected rather than withdrawing the scheme entirely for taught degrees.

    “As predicted by the sector, that withdrawal was gender discriminatory, leading to the loss of 19,000 female students vs prior year in the January 2024 intake alone,” he said. “Every one of those was a human story, of ambitions denied, families fractured, careers restricted and yet again women being discriminated against – in this case by UK government policy.”

    Every one of those was a human story, of ambitions denied, families fractured, careers restricted and yet again women being discriminated against
    James Pitman

    Home Office figures obtained by Pitman via a freedom of information request show a marked year-on-year decline in women issued sponsored study visa grants for courses at RQF level 6-8 or equivalent starting in January.

    In 2023, of 81,079 total student visas, 45% were issued to women, compared to 55% that were issued to men. But the following year, after the dependants ban was brought in, the gender split was 66% in favour of men. These numbers stayed stable in 2025, the data showed, with 65% of sponsored study visas issued to men.

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  • The digital advantage in schools 

    The digital advantage in schools 

    Key points:

    When I first stepped into my role overseeing student data for the Campbell County School District, it was clear we were working against a system that no longer served us.

    At the time, we were using an outdated platform riddled with data silos and manual processes. Creating school calendars and managing student records meant starting from scratch every year. Grade management was clunky, time-consuming, and far from efficient. We knew we needed more than a patchwork fix–we needed a unified student information system that could scale with our district’s needs and adapt to evolving state-level compliance requirements. 

    Over the past several years, we have made a full transition to digitizing our most critical student services, and the impact has been transformational. As districts across the country navigate growing compliance demands and increasingly complex student needs, the case for going digital has never been stronger. We now operate with greater consistency, transparency, and equity across all 12 of our schools. 

    Here are four ways this shift has improved how we support students–and why I believe it is a step every district should consider:

    How centralized student data improves support across K-12 schools

    One of the most powerful benefits of digitizing critical student services is the ability to centralize data and ensure seamless support across campuses. In our district, this has been a game-changer–especially for students who move between schools. Before digitization, transferring student records meant tracking down paper files, making copies, and hoping nothing was lost in the shuffle. It was inefficient and risky, especially for students who required health interventions or academic support. 

    Now, every plan, history, and record lives in a single, secure system that follows the student wherever they go. Whether a student changes schools mid-year or needs immediate care from a nurse at a new campus, that information is accessible in real-time. This level of continuity has improved both our efficiency and the quality of support we provide. For districts serving mobile or vulnerable populations, centralized digital systems aren’t just convenient–they’re essential.

    Building digital workflows for student health, attendance, and graduation readiness

    Digitizing student services also enables districts to create customized digital workflows that significantly enhance responsiveness and efficiency. In Campbell County, we have built tools tailored to our most urgent needs–from health care to attendance to graduation readiness. One of our most impactful changes was developing unified, digital Individualized Health Plans (IHPs) for school nurses. Now, care plans are easily accessible across campuses, with alerts built right into student records, enabling timely interventions for chronic conditions like diabetes or asthma. We also created a digital Attendance Intervention Management (AIM) tool that tracks intervention tiers, stores contracts and communications, and helps social workers and truancy officers make informed decisions quickly. 

    These tools don’t just check boxes–they help us act faster, reduce staff workload, and ensure no student falls through the cracks.

    Digitization supports equitable and proactive student services

    By moving our student services to digital platforms, we have become far more proactive in how we support students–leading to a significant impact on equity across our district. With digital dashboards, alerts, and real-time data, educators and support staff can identify students who may be at risk academically, socially, or emotionally before the situation becomes critical. 

    These tools ensure that no matter which school a student attends–or how often they move between schools–they receive the same level of timely, informed support. By shifting from a reactive to a proactive model, digitization has helped us reduce disparities, catch issues early, and make sure that every student gets what they need to thrive. That’s not just good data management–it’s a more equitable way to serve kids.

    Why digital student services scale better than outdated platforms

    One of the most important advantages of digitizing critical student services is building a system that can grow and evolve with the district’s needs. Unlike outdated platforms that require costly and time-consuming overhauls, flexible digital systems are designed to adapt as demands change. Whether it’s integrating new tools to support remote learning, responding to updated state compliance requirements, or expanding services to meet a growing student population, a digitized infrastructure provides the scalability districts need. 

    This future-proofing means districts aren’t locked into rigid processes but can customize workflows and add modules without disrupting day-to-day operations. For districts like ours, this adaptability reduces long-term costs and supports continuous improvement. It ensures that as challenges evolve–whether demographic shifts, policy changes, or new educational priorities–our technology remains a reliable foundation that empowers educators and administrators to meet the moment without missing a beat.

    Digitizing critical student services is more than a technical upgrade–it’s a commitment to equity, efficiency, and future readiness. By centralizing data, customizing workflows, enabling proactive support, and building scalable systems, districts can better serve every student today and adapt to whatever challenges tomorrow may bring.

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  • International enrolments at UK business schools on the mend

    International enrolments at UK business schools on the mend

    UK business schools continue to be buffeted by hostile immigration policies, with some institutions noting two consecutive years of declining overseas enrolments, according to 2025/26 results from the 2025 Chartered Association of Business Schools (ABS) annual membership survey of 48 members.

    But the picture seems to be improving. Almost half of the schools surveyed (46%) reported an increase in international enrolments, up from just 11% the previous year. At undergraduate level, 45% reported rising numbers, compared with 64% at postgraduate level.

    Nevertheless, the association has pointed to policies affecting international students in the UK as continuing causes for concern for business schools as promises made in Keir Starmer’s immigration white paper become a reality.

    While international enrolments at the undergraduate level were down on 2024/25 for 14% of respondents, this is far lower than the 39% who reported the same trend in 2024/25.

    Similarly, while a sizeable chunk of respondents (39%) said overseas enrolments for postgraduate students were down year on year, this is still a noticeable improvement than over three quarters of respondents the year before.

    But the Chartered ABS noted that international enrolments will still be lower than before 2024/25, with some schools reporting two years of decline in a row.

    The Chartered ABS pointed to hostile policies in the UK as a potential reason for declining international enrolments. The UK government’s decision to reduce the Graduate Route by six months is already having an effect, it said, with 60% of survey respondents saying the incoming policy has had a negative impact.

    “The shortening of the Graduate Route, the ban on student dependants, and the proposals for the international student levy will continue to have a damaging impact on business school finances, and by extension, their parent institutions,” warned Stewart Robinson, chair of the Chartered ABS and dean of Newcastle University Business School.

    “These results reveal that while some institutions are seeing student numbers grow and finances stabilise, many institutions continue to face significant challenges. Budget cuts, restructuring, and redundancies will continue, and many business schools will face another year of declining student numbers and income,” he added. 

    The survey revealed that many UK business schools are feeling the pinch, with an increasing number (48%) reporting a drop in year-on-year income in 2025/26 compared to 36% in 2024/25.

    Budget cuts, restructuring, and redundancies will continue, and many business schools will face another year of declining student numbers and income
    Stewart Robinson, Chartered ABS and Newcastle University Business School

    However, more than half of the schools surveyed (58%) said they expected income to increase in 2025/26 – an improvement on the previous year, when more than half expected further decline.

    A slew of policies affecting the international education sector were announced as part of the immigration white paper, with stakeholders concerned that each could have a serious impact on overseas enrolments.

    The government has decided to cut the Graduate Route from two years to just 18 months, shaving six months off the visa route for international graduates from UK institutions.

    A levy on the income institutions make from international student fees was also announced as part of the changes, with a later decision to ringfence this cash to spend on maintenance grants for domestic students. Critics have warned that the move could decimate international enrolments if students are put off by the higher fees many institutions will have to set to cover the cost of the tax.

    An earlier decision to ban almost all international students from bringing their dependants to the country with them on a student visa. Since 2024, when the policy was announced, net migration numbers in the UK have seen a steep decline.

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  • Is it time to change the rules on NSS publication?

    Is it time to change the rules on NSS publication?

    If we cast our minds back to 2005, the four UK higher education funding bodies ran the first ever compulsory survey of students’ views on the education they receive – the National Student Survey (NSS).

    Back then the very idea of a survey was controversial, we were worried about the impact on the sector reputation, the potential for response bias, and that students would be fearful of responding negatively in case their university downgraded their degree.

    Initial safeguards

    These fears led us to make three important decisions all of which are now well past their sell-by date. These were:

    • Setting a response rate threshold of 50 per cent
    • Restricting publication to subject areas with more than 22 respondents
    • Only providing aggregate data to universities.

    At the time all of these were very sensible decisions designed to build confidence in what was a controversial survey. Twenty years on, it’s time to look at these with fresh eyes to assure ourselves they remain appropriate – and to these eyes they need to change.

    Embarrassment of riches

    One of these rules has already changed: responses are now published where 10 or more students respond. Personally, I think this represents a very low bar, determined as it is by privacy more than statistical reasoning, but I can live with it especially as research has shown that “no data” can be viewed negatively.

    Of the other two, first let me turn to the response rate. Fifty per cent is a very high response rate for any survey, and the fact the NSS achieves a 70 per cent response rate is astonishing. While I don’t think we should be aiming to get fewer responses, drawing a hard line at 50 per cent creates a cliff edge in data that we don’t need.

    There is nothing magical about 50 per cent – it’s simply a number that sounds convincing because it means that at least half your students contributed. A 50 per cent response rate does not ensure that the results are not subject to bias for example, if propensity to respond was in some way correlated with a positive experience the results would still be flawed.

    I would note that the limited evidence that there is suggests that propensity to respond is not correlated with a positive experience, but it’s an under-researched area and one the Office for Students (OfS) should publish some work on.

    Panel beating

    This cliff edge is even more problematic when the data is used in regulation, as the OfS proposes to do a part of the new TEF. Under OfS proposals providers that don’t have NSS data either due to small cohorts or a “low” response rate would have NSS evidence replaced with focus groups or other types of student interaction. This makes sense when the reason is an absolute low number of responses but not when it’s due to not hitting an exceptionally high response rate as Oxford and Cambridge failed to do for many years.

    While focus groups can offer valuable insights, and usefully sit alongside large-scale survey work, it is utterly absurd to ignore evidence from a survey because an arbitrary and very high threshold is not met. Most universities will have several thousand final year students, so even if only 30 per cent of them respond you will have responses from hundreds if not thousands of individuals – which must provide a much stronger evidence base than some focus groups. Furthermore, that evidence base will be consistent with every other university creating one less headache for assessors in comparing diverse evidence.

    The 50 per cent response rate threshold also looks irrational when set against a 30 per cent threshold for the Graduate Outcomes survey. While any response rate threshold is arbitrary to apply, applying two different thresholds needs rather more justification than the fact that the surveys are able to achieve different response rates. Indeed, I might argue that the risk of response bias might be higher with GO for a variety of reasons.

    NSS to GO

    In the absence of evidence in support of any different threshold I would align the NSS and GO publication thresholds at 30 per cent and make the response rates more prominent. I would also share NSS and GO data with TEF panels irrespective of the response rate, and allow them to rely on their expert judgement supported by the excellent analytical team at the OfS. And the TEF panel may then choose to seek additional evidence if they consider it necessary.

    In terms of sharing data with providers, 2025 is really very different to 2005. Social media has arguably exploded and is now contracting, but in any case attitudes to sharing have changed and it is unlikely the concerns that existed in 2005 will be the same as the concerns of the current crop of students.

    For those who don’t follow the detail, NSS data is provided back to Universities via a bespoke portal that provides a number of pre-defined cuts of the data and comments, together with an ability to create your own cross-tabs. This data, while very rich, do not have the analytical power of individualised data and suffer from still being subject to suppression for small numbers.

    What this means is that if we want to understand the areas we want to improve we’re forced to deduce it from a partial picture rather than being laser focussed on exactly where the issues are, and this applies to both the Likert scale questions and the free text.

    It also means that providers cannot form a longitudinal view of the student experience by linking to other data and survey responses they hold at an individual level – something that could generate a much richer understanding of how to improve the student experience.

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  • Policy uncertainty emerges as top barrier to student mobility 

    Policy uncertainty emerges as top barrier to student mobility 

    While affordability remains the greatest obstacle for students, IDP Education’s new Emerging Futures survey has revealed the growing impact of sudden and unclear policy changes shaping students’ international study decisions.  

    “Students and families are prepared to make sacrifices to afford their international education dreams. They can adjust budgets, seek scholarships and rely on part-time work. But they cannot plan for uncertainty,” said IDP chief partnerships officer Simon Emmett.  

    “When the rules change, without warning or clarity, trust falls away. Students hesitate, delay, or choose to study elsewhere.” 

    Drawing on the views of nearly 8,000 international students from 134 countries between July and August 2025, the results highlighted the critical importance of study destinations communicating policy changes to sustain trust among students.  

    The US and UK were rated the lowest for providing clear guidance on visas and arrivals processes, while New Zealand was identified as the top communicator in this respect.  

    What’s more, the UK saw the steepest rise in students withdrawing from plans to study there, indicating recent policy changes including plans to shorten the Graduate Route and increase compliance metrics for universities are creating uncertainty among international students. 

    Of the students who said they were pivoting away from major study destinations, over half (51%) indicated tuition fees had become unaffordable and one in five said it was too difficult to obtain a visa.  

    In markets such as Malaysia, the Philippines and the UAE, students reported delaying or redirecting applications almost immediately after unclear announcements by major destinations, the report said. 

    Meanwhile Canada’s share of withdrawals was shown to have eased, indicating messaging is helping to rebuild stability, the authors suggested, though Canadian study permit issuance has fallen dramatically in 2025.

    Without that stability, even the most attractive destinations risk losing trust

    Simon Emmett, IDP

    Despite policy disruptions in Australia over recent years, the country remained the most popular first-choice destination globally, ranked highly for value for money, graduate employment opportunities and post-study work pathways.  

    At the same time, many respondents flagged sensitivities to recent visa and enrolment changes, highlighting the need for consistent and transparent messaging to maintain Australia’s competitiveness, according to IDP.  

    The US saw the largest decline in popularity, dropping to third place behind Australia and the UK. 

    NAFSA CEO Fanta Aw said the findings should serve as a “wake-up call” that policy uncertainty has real human and economic costs, emphasising the need for “clear and consistent” communication from institutions and policymakers.  

    “Students are paying close attention to how the US administration handles student visas and post-study experiential learning opportunities like Optional Practical Training,” said Aw. 

    Visa restrictions and policy hostility have rocked the US under Trump’s second presidency, with global visa appointments suspended for nearly a month this summer, as well as thousands of student visa revocations and travel restrictions on 12 nations.  

    Post-study work opportunities are increasingly fragile in the US with government plans to overhaul the H-1B skilled worker visa to favour better paid jobs and OPT coming under increased scrutiny from policymakers. 

    Emmett highlighted the knock-on effect of these policy shocks, with student journeys being disrupted “not by ambition, but by uncertainty”. 

    “Countries that provide predictability will win the confidence of students and their families. Without that stability, even the most attractive destinations risk losing trust,” he said. 

    Despite financial and political challenges, demand for global study remained strong, with half of all prospective students intending to apply within six months, and a further 29% within a year. 

    South Asia emerged as the main driver of intent, with more than 60% of students surveyed from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh preparing near-term applications, though this region was also the most sensitive to abrupt or confusing policy shifts.  

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  • Higher education data explains why digital ID is a good idea

    Higher education data explains why digital ID is a good idea

    Just before the excitement of conference season, your local Facebook group lost its collective mind. And it shows no sign of calming down.

    Given everything else that is going on, you’d think that reinforcing the joins between key government data sources and giving more visibility to the subjects of public data would be the kind of nerdy thing that the likes of me write about.

    But no. Somebody used the secret code word. ID Cards.

    Who is she and what is she to you?

    I’ve written before about the problems our government faces in reliably identifying people. Any entitlement– or permission– based system needs a clear and unambiguous way of assuring the state that a person is indeed who they claim they are, and have the attributes or documentation they claim to.

    As a nation, we are astonishingly bad at this. Any moderately serious interaction with the state requires a parade of paperwork – your passport, driving license, birth certificate, bank statement, bank card, degree certificate, and two recent utility bills showing your name and address. Just witness the furore over voter ID – to be clear a pointless idea aimed at solving a problem that the UK has never faced – and the wild collection of things that you might be allowed to pull out of your voting day pocket that do not include a student ID.

    We are not immune from this problem in higher education. I’ve been asking for years why you need to apply to a university via UCAS, and apply for funding via the Student Loans Company, via two different systems. It’s then never been clear to me why you then need to submit largely similar information to your university when you enroll.

    Sun sign

    Given that organs of the state have this amount of your personal information, it is then alarming that the only way it can work out what you earn after graduating is by either asking you directly (Graduate Outcomes) or by seeing if anyone with your name, domicile, and date of birth turns up in the Inland Revenue database.

    That latter one – administrative matching – is illustrative of the government’s current approach to identity. If it can find enough likely matches of personal information in multiple government databases it can decide (with a high degree of confidence) that records refer to the same person.

    That’s how they make LEO data. They look for National Insurance Number (NINO), forename, surname, date of birth, postcode, and sex in both HESA student records and the Department for Work and Pension’s Customer Information System (which itself links to the tax database). Keen Wonkhe readers will have spotted that NINO isn’t returned to HESA – to get this they use “fuzzy matching” with personal data from the Student Loans Company, which does. The surname thing is even wilder – they use a sound-based algorithm (SOUNDEX) to allow for flexibility on spellings.

    This kind of nonsense actually has a match rate of more than 90 per cent (though this is lower for ethnically Chinese graduates because sometimes forenames and surnames can switch depending on the cultural knowledge of whoever prepared the data).

    It’s impressive as a piece of data engineering. But given that all of this information was collected and stored by arms of the same government it is really quite poor.

    The tale of the student ID

    Another higher education example. If you were ever a student you had a student ID. It was printed on your student card, and may have turned up on various official documents too. Perhaps you imagined that every student in the UK had a student number, and that there was some kind of logic to the way that they were created, and that there was a canonical national list. You would be wrong.

    Back in the day, this would have been a HESA ID, itself created from your UCAS number and your year of entry (or your year of entry, HESA provider ID, and an internal reference number if you applied directly). Until just a few years ago, the non-UCAS alternative was in use for all students – even including the use of the old HESA provider ID rather than the more commonly used UKPRN. Why the move away from UCAS – well, UCAS had changed how they did identifiers and HESA’s systems couldn’t cope.

    You’re expecting me to say that things are far more sensible now, but no. They are not. HESA has finally fixed the UKPRN issue within a new student ID field (SID). This otherwise replicates the old system but with one important difference: it is not persistent.

    Under the old approach, the idea was you had one student number for life – if you did an undergraduate degree at Liverpool, a masters at Manchester Met, and a PhD at Royal Holloway these were all mapped to the same ID. There was even a lookup service for new providers if the student didn’t have their old number. I probably don’t even need to tell you why this is a good idea if you are interested – in policy terms – in the paths that students within their career in higher education. These days we just administratively match if we need to. Or – as in LEO – assume that the last thing a student studied was the key to or cause of their glittering or otherwise career.

    The case of the LLE

    Now I hear what you might be thinking. These are pretty terrible examples, but they are just bodges – workarounds for bad decisions made in the distant past. But we have the chance to get it right in the next couple of years.

    The design of the Lifelong Learning Entitlement means that the government needs tight and reliable information about who does what bit of learning in order that funds can be appropriately allocated. So you’d think that there would be a rock-solid, portable, unique learner number underpinning everything.

    There is not. Instead, we appear to be standardising on the Student Loans Company customer reference number. This is supposed to be portable for life, but it doesn’t appear in any other sector datasets (the “student support number” is in HESA, but that is somehow different – you get two identifiers from SLC, lucky you). SLC also holds your NINO (you need one to get funding!), and has capacity to hold another additional number of an institution’s choice, but not (routinely) your HESA student ID or your UCAS identifier.

    There’s also space to add a Unique Learner Number (ULN) but at this stage I’m too depressed to go into what a missed opportunity that is.

    Why is standardising on a customer reference number not a good idea? Well, think of all the data SLC doesn’t hold but HESA does. Think about being able to refer easily back to a school career and forward into working life on various government data. Think about how it is HESA data and not SLC data that underpins LEO. Think about the palaver I have described above and ask yourself why you wouldn’t fix it when you had the opportunity.

    Learning to love Big Brother

    I’ll be frank, I’m not crazy about how much the government knows about me – but honestly compared to people like Google, Meta, or – yikes – X (formerly twitter) it doesn’t hugely worry me.

    I’ve been a No2ID zealot in my past (any employee of those three companies could tell you that) but these days I am resigned to the fact that people need to know who I am, and I’d rather be more than 95 per cent confident that they could get it right.

    I’m no fan of filling in forms, but I am a fan of streamlined and intelligent administration.

    So why do we need ID cards? Simply because in proper countries we don’t need to go through stuff like this every time we want to know if a person that pays tax and a person that went to university are the same person. Because the current state of the art is a mess.

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  • Canada: 47k int’l students flagged for potential visa non-compliance

    Canada: 47k int’l students flagged for potential visa non-compliance

    Aiesha Zafar, assistant deputy minister for migration integrity at IRCC, told the House of Commons Standing Committee on Citizenship and Immigration that 8% of international students reviewed were potentially “non-compliant”, meaning they were not attending classes as required by the terms of their study visa.

    “In terms of the total number of students we asked for compliance information from, that results in potentially 47,175. We have not yet determined whether they are fully non-compliant, these are initial results provided to us by institutions,” stated Zafar, who was questioned by Conservative MP Michelle Rempel Garner about where these students are currently, if they are not complying with their visa terms.

    Determining full non-compliance of the international students, however, is not straightforward, as institutions report data at varying intervals, and students may change schools, graduate, or take authorized leaves.

    Zafar noted that IRCC shares all the data it continually collects with the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA), which is responsible for locating and removing non-compliant visa holders.

    “Any foreign national in Canada would be under the purview of the CBSA, so they have an inland investigation team,” Zafar told the committee when Garner questioned how the IRCC is able to track and remove students who are in violation of their visas.

    The 47,000 non-compliance cases are a backlog, evidence that fraud detection is strengthening, not weakening, Canadian standards
    Maria Mathai, M.M Advisory Services

    According to Maria Mathai, founder of M.M Advisory Services, which supports Canadian universities in the South Asian market, the figure of over 47,000 students who could be non-compliant being portrayed as a “crisis” misses the real story — that Canada’s immigration system is actively adapting.

    “Front-end Provincial Attestation Letter (PAL) screening now blocks thousands who would have entered before, and ongoing oversight is catching legacy issues. The 47,000 non-compliance cases are a backlog, evidence that fraud detection is strengthening, not weakening, Canadian standards,” Mathai told The PIE News.

    Mathai acknowledged that past PAL allocations contributed to compliance challenges, with regions like Ontario, which hosts the largest share of international students, directing most of its PALs to colleges with higher default rates.

    However, the situation is expected to change with IRCC now imposing strict provincial caps on the number of study permits each province can issue.

    “By surfacing these imbalances now, the new framework is encouraging provinces and institutions to adapt entry practices based on evidence and learning,” stated Mathai.

    Canada’s international student compliance regime, in effect since 2014, was established to identify potentially non-genuine students.

    It includes twice-yearly compliance reporting conducted in partnership with Designated Learning Institutions (DLIs), Canadian colleges, institutes, and universities authorised to host international students.

    While IRCC’s 2024 report noted no recourse against non-reporting DLIs, new rules now allow such institutions to be suspended for up to a year.

    Moreover, Canada’s struggle with international students not showing up for classes is not new, with reports earlier this year indicating nearly 50,000 instances of “no-shows”, international students who failed to enrol at their institutions, in the spring of 2024.

    While the “no-show” cohort included 4,279 Chinese students, 3,902 Nigerian students, and 2,712 Ghanaian students, Indian students accounted for the largest share at 19,582. It highlights a broader issue of immigration fraud originating from India, which Zafar identified as one of the top countries for such cases during her September 23 committee testimony.

    Over a quarter of international students seeking asylum in Canada also came from India and Nigeria.

    According to Pranav Rathi, associate director of international recruitment at Fanshawe College, which hosts one of the largest numbers of Indian students in Ontario, a “rigorous approach” has led to about 20% of Indian applications being declined to ensure only qualified candidates proceed.

    “Each application is carefully reviewed, and checked for aggregate scores, backlogs, and authenticity of mark sheets. We keep ourselves updated with the recognised institution list published by UGC,” stated Rathi.

    “It is mandatory for a student to provide English language tests approved by IRCC and we also verify English proficiency through IELTS or equivalent test reports to confirm readiness for study in Canada.”

    Rathi suggested that one reason Indian students often appear among potentially non-compliant or “no-show” cases is a systemic issue that previously allowed them to change institutions after receiving a study permit.

    He added that schools now need to take a more active role, particularly when students apply through education agents.

    “Institutions should ensure that their representatives are transparent, well-trained, and follow ethical recruitment practices that align with institutional and regulatory standards,” stated Rathi.

    “Ongoing collaboration between institutions and government bodies to monitor market trends and share insights can help build a more transparent and sustainable international education system.”

    Many Canadian institutions are now facing headwinds, with course offerings and research funding being cut as Canada’s study permit refusal rate has climbed to its highest level in over a decade.

    Canadian politicians have also intensified scrutiny of institutions across the country.

    Just days after the IRCC testimony on non-compliant students, a federal committee hearing led by MP Garner saw Conestoga College president John Tibbits questioned on issues ranging from his $600,000 salary to allegations of “juicing foreign student permits” amid growing concerns that healthcare, housing, and jobs that “don’t have capacity” in Ontario.

    “Colleges, including Conestoga, have been subject to scrutiny about the role international [students] play in housing, affordability and community pressures. I welcome the opportunity to reaffirm that Conestoga’s approach has always been about service. Our mission has always been to ensure the communities we serve have access to the skilled labour force they need to survive,” stated Tibbits, while addressing the committee on Thursday.

    “Looking ahead, we believe this is the time to stabilize the system to build an international student program that is sustainable, fair, globally competitive and focused on Canada’s economic priorities,” he added, as reported by CTV News.

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