Category: Data

  • Nigerian student interest in the US falls by 50%

    Nigerian student interest in the US falls by 50%

    Search interest in America among Nigerians dropped immediately following the announcement of the US travel ban in December 2025, with levels more than half of what they were during a high point in August last year, according to Keystone Education Group data. 

    “We continue to see audiences responding very quickly to actions and announcements from the US government and Nigeria is no exception,” said Mark Bennett, Keystone’s VP of research & insight. 

    “These announcements don’t discourage Nigerians from studying abroad, but they will prompt them to look for opportunities elsewhere. Crucially, that doesn’t have to mean elsewhere in the big four,” added Bennett. 

    European destinations have absorbed the most Nigerian student interest pivoting away from the US, with France and Italy seeing search growth of 40% and 33% respectively during the same period.  

    China has also seen a 17% boost in interest from Nigerian students, while interest in Australia grew by 21%. 

    Previously, the challenge was navigating long wait times and backlogs. Now, there is no pathway at all

    Bimpe Femi-Oyewo

    On December 16, 2025, the administration announced the expansion of the US travel ban to cover nearly 40 nations, including Nigeria, America’s eighth largest sender of international students.  

    The African nation is now subject to partial travel restrictions, which includes barring Nigerian citizens from obtaining study visas for the US. 

    Speaking to The PIE News shortly after the announcement, founder of a Nigerian education consultancy Bimpe Femi-Oyewo said the level of uncertainty caused by the ban was “incredibly destabilising” for students and the institutions that admitted them. 

    “Previously, the challenge was navigating long wait times and backlogs. Now, there is no pathway at all,” she said – adding that she was encouraging students to consider alternative pathways in Europe and Canada.  

    What’s more, the ripple effects of the travel ban and other restrictive US policies are being felt beyond the directly impacted nations, with America’s reputation as an unwelcoming study destination growing globally. 

    This is evident in Keystone’s survey data, which found the proportion of students expressing low confidence in the ease of US visa and entry requirements increasing from 14% to 21% following the expanded travel ban. 

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  • US international master’s enrolments to fall by 15%

    US international master’s enrolments to fall by 15%

    The predicted drop means there are 64,000 fewer than expected master’s students enrolled in US institutions in 2025/26 than previously anticipated, following five years of international growth propping up overall US master’s enrolment.  

    “Uncertainty around immigration policies appears to be one of the primary drivers, if not the primary driver, of the decline in international enrolments,” Brady Colby, head of market research at Validated Insights, told The PIE News.  

    The study, conducted by Validated Insights higher education marketing agency, draws on data from multiple sector bodies, revealing nearly half of US institutions expect graduate international application volumes to decline this year.  

    This builds on an existing downward trend, with 42% of institutions reporting fewer international graduate applications last year, according to IIE.  

    It reveals international enrolments have been driving the upward trajectory of US master’s programs since 2018/19, as domestic enrolments have declined. 

    From academic years 2018/19 to 2023/24, domestic master’s enrolment saw a 0.5% decline, while international enrolments grew by more than 6%, producing an overall growth rate of 0.4%. 

    Since 2021, the number of international master’s enrolments has steadily increased by over 11%, with this year’s sharp drop likely to have financial repercussions for institutions planning for sustained growth.  

    “Recently, projections indicated that international master’s enrolment in 2025/26 would be as high as 660,000, meaning there are now expected to be 64,000 fewer of these students than previously anticipated in 2025/26,” the report states.  

    It highlights recent NAFSA data indicating new international master’s enrolments fell by 19% year-over-year in fall 2025, alongside Studyportals analysis showing prospective student interest in the US plummeting by 50% between January and April 2025.  

    The impact of the decline varies dramatically depending on field of study, with international students over-represented in STEM master’s, comprising 80% of software engineering graduates and 77% of computer science graduates.  

    By contrast, education and healthcare programs tend to have the lowest percentages of international students, according to the report.  

    The report warns that many high-demand STEM programs are “highly dependent on international students”, forecasting course closures if the downward trend continues.  

    What’s more, “the US risks losing early-career talent in computer science, AI, cyber security, data science and engineering,” said Colby. “These are precisely the fields were domestic supply already falls short of labour market demand,” he added.  

    The knock-on effects will be felt not just by universities, but by employers, domestic students, and the broader US knowledge economy

    Brady Colby, Validated Insights

    Over time, repercussions include increased hiring bottlenecks for US employers, reduced innovation in AI and emerging technologies, and the exodus of firms expanding operations in countries with more predictable post-study work policies.  

    If current trends continue, higher education finances will come under increased pressure, causing program closures in STEM and MBA programs and a “measurable drag” on innovation and economic competitiveness, said Colby. 

    “The knock-on effects will be felt not just by universities, but by employers, domestic students, and the broader US knowledge economy,” he continued, highlighting the US economy could lose $7 billion in aggregate revenue due to declining international student numbers.  

    Following administration’s recent overhaul of the H-1B visa process in favour of higher wage earners, alongside anticipated restrictions on Optional Practical Training (OPT), the decline is likely to continue.  

    In a NAFSA survey of current US international students, over half of respondents (53%) said they would not have enrolled in the first place if access to H-1B was determined by wage levels.   

    Meanwhile, 54% of respondents said they would not have enrolled in the first place had OPT been rescinded. And 57% of master’s students who intend to stay in the US said they would be unlikely to try and stay if OPT were eliminated.  

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  • 85 million international students by 2030, QS data predicts

    85 million international students by 2030, QS data predicts

    Despite headwinds that have affected the four biggest study destinations over the past year, “push factors” such as lack of capacity in higher education in major sending markets will mean that the future of international education will continue to be relatively stable – and tens of millions of students will continue to study abroad in the future.

    That was the message from QS’s Andrew Plant and Selma Toohey at the organisation’s Reimagine conference in London. Using data from QS’s Global Stream Flows project, which tracks current market data and predicts future trends, they showed the relative resilience of the market over time.

    “Everyone should know they’re in a safe sector – that things will continue to be on the up, if you believe [the data],” said Toohey, senior vice president, university services at QS, outlining that there will be some 85 million international students by 2030.

    “It doesn’t always feel like it, does it?” added Plant, QS director, UK and Ireland. “It feels like we’re always dealing with a crisis, but actually we’re in a pretty good industry.”

    However, he acknowledged that there is “potentially more volatility” in destinations such as the US, Argentina and Russia at the moment as factors such as geopolitical or financial instability come home to roost.

    Similarly, in the UK, Brexit and the pandemic have hampered growth in recent years.

    I want you to imagine international education as a chess court. Every move, every political shift, they change the shape of the game
    Andrew Plant, QS

    “I want you to imagine international education as a chess court. Every move, every political shift, they change the shape of the game,” said Plant. “The question we need to be asking ourselves is, are we predicting those moves or are we just reacting to the moves we weren’t expecting?”

    Looking at broader market trends, Toohey pointed out that Nigeria – a major sending country – has around 2 million students looking for a university place, but only a maximum capacity to offer 600,000 places across its roughly 200 universities.

    “They often do regional flows so you’ll see Nigerians go into places like Ghana, but then they have their own capacity problems, or they go out to the big four or more and more the longer 14,” she said, referring to the larger group of major study destinations over and above the biggest markets in the US, the UK, Canada and Australia.

    There is a similar situation in India, which Toohey said would have to open 14 new universities a week to keep up with its target enrolment ratio – driving the influx of TNE interest in the country as well as making India one of the biggest sending countries in the world.

    “The population is so large and more and more Indians have access or want to have access to higher education,” she explained.

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  • Outbound Indian university enrolments fall after three-year rise

    Outbound Indian university enrolments fall after three-year rise

    Of the 1.882 million Indian students studying abroad, over 1.254 million are pursuing higher education at international universities and tertiary institutions, while 628,305 are enrolled at the school level.

    While overall 2025 numbers hit an all-time high due to the inclusion of school-level students, higher education enrolments fell by 76,000 this year, ending a three-year surge. Over 750,000 Indian students studied at international universities in 2022, rising to 930,000 in 2023 and peaking at 1.33 million in 2024.

    Despite Canada’s clampdown on international students, with 74% of Indian study permit applications rejected in August 2025, up from 32% in the same month in 2023, the North American country still hosts the largest number of Indian students in universities and tertiary institutions globally, at 427,085 students.

    In the US, despite a 44% drop in study visas for Indian students in August 2025 compared to last year, India remains the largest source country, accounting for over 31% of all international students, with over 255,000 Indian students, according to MEA data.

    MEA data also showed that the number of Indian higher education students in key countries, as of 2025: the UK (173,190), Australia (138,579), Germany (59,000), Russia (27,000), Kyrgyzstan (16,500), and Georgia (16,000).

    Policy changes in major study destinations are impacting Indian students’ decisions. While Canada plans to cut international study permits by over 50% in 2026, the US continues a hostile stance against international students with nine in 10 students fearing for their visas, and postgraduate enrolments are falling across UK universities, with English institutions facing a potential losses under the new £925-per-international student levy.

    Other destinations show mixed trends: Australia has seen a rise in Indian students but remains cautious about fraud and agent misuse, with the recent education reforms bill aiming to address these concerns, while New Zealand has recorded increasing number of study visa applications from India as of October 2025.

    “The growth in mobility patterns in the years following the pandemic were driven by the pent-up demand and welcoming post-graduation work and immigration pathways and policies in destinations such as Canada,” Rahul Choudaha, professor and COO at the University of Aberdeen, Mumbai campus told The PIE News.

    “However, in 2025, the immigration policies became restrictive in all key destinations starting with the US.”

    The decline in Indian students pursuing higher education abroad also follows a sharp fall in study abroad remittances from India between April and August 2025, lowest in eight years, the peak period for such transfers.

    Moreover, according to a recent analysis highlighted by Choudaha, the annual cost of studying in the US has risen by Rs 10 lakh (GDP £8,200-£8,300) for Indian students over the past five years, with currency devaluation and tuition hikes pushing the overall cost of studying abroad up 10–12% in 2025.

    Higher investment outlay along with dimmer chances of recovering that investment has made Indian students nervous and cautious about studying abroad in 2025
    Rahul Choudaha, University of Aberdeen Mumbai campus

    “Higher investment outlay along with dimmer chances of recovering that investment has made Indian students nervous and cautious about studying abroad in 2025,” stated Choudaha.

    “Universities also need to do more in terms of providing career success and scholarships to students to make ease the barrier of upfront costs and its recovery through employability.”

    The rise of destinations such as Germany, Russia, Kyrgyzstan and Georgia signals a shift towards lower-cost, quality STEM and medical education beyond the “big four”, including Indian private and public universities which are serving over 46.5 million higher education students as of 2025.

    “Indian universities are more active than ever before in stepping up their recruitment efforts from the home market,” stated Jasminder Khanna, co-founder, Gresham Global.

    “Be it recruitments fairs, conferences or even retreats for local feeders, prominent Indian universities are quite at par with the foreign universities in upping their visibility.”

    With branch campuses of over 15 international universities, mainly from the US and UK, expected to open in India by the end of 2026, and the system projected to serve over 560,000 Indian students by 2040, Choudaha sees the next three years as crucial for these campuses in absorbing inbound demand amid increasingly restrictive policies.

    “The aspirations to gain global learning remain strong while affordability has become a big challenge,” stated Choudaha.

    “With over fifteen campuses offering degrees in fall 2026 intake means that a segment of Indian students will consider these options and over time not only the number of campuses will increase but also the program portfolios offered by these campuses.”

    Moreover, with 97% of Indian students seeking education that leads directly to jobs, according to research commissioned by City St George’s, University of London and conducted by Arlington Research, crackdowns on post-study work options across major destinations are raising concerns, as lobbying to end Optional Practical Training (OPT) in the US heats up and the UK is already set to cut its Graduate Route visa from two years to 18 months from January 2027.

    With “shrinking entry-level jobs and unstable economies marginally slowing the outflow” of students, stakeholders need to think of solutions that address both the study-abroad process and outcomes, Khanna said, to ensure Indian and international students continue to pursue education abroad in huge numbers.

    “Reassuring feeders and stakeholders on economic stabilities, local safety, access to meaningful jobs and multi-cultural environments on campuses will bring back some of the lost confidence since the pandemic,” stated Khanna.

    “Students and parents also need to understand that recent student visa policy changes worldwide are intended to make traditional study destinations more meaningful, with a stronger focus on quality — and these changes should be welcomed.”

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  • 3 threats putting student safety at risk

    3 threats putting student safety at risk

    Key points:

    In today’s schools, whether K-12 or higher education, AI is powering smarter classrooms. There’s more personalized learning and faster administrative tasks. And students themselves are engaging with AI more than ever before, as 70 percent say they’ve used an AI tool to alter or create completely new images. But while educators and students are embracing the promise of AI, cybercriminals are exploiting it.

    In 2025, the U.S. Department of Education reported that nearly 150,000 suspect identities were flagged in recent federal student-aid forms, contributing to $90 million in financial aid losses tied to ineligible applicants. From deepfakes in admissions to synthetic students infiltrating online portals and threatening high-value research information, AI-powered identity fraud is rising fast, and our educational institutions are alarmingly underprepared.

    As identity fraud tactics become more scalable and convincing, districts are now racing to deploy modern tools to catch fake students before they slip through the cracks. Three fraud trends keep IT and security leaders in education up at night–and AI is supercharging their impact.

    1. Fraud rings targeting education

    Here’s the hard truth: Fraudsters operate in networks, but most schools fight fraud alone.

    Coordinated rings can deploy hundreds of synthetic identities across schools or districts. These groups recycle biometric data, reuse fake documents, and share attack methods on dark web forums.

    To stand a fair chance in the fight, educational institutions must work with identity verification experts that enable a holistic view of the threat landscape through cross-transactional risk assessments. These assessments spot risk patterns across devices, IP addresses, and user behavior, helping institutions uncover fraud clusters that would be invisible in isolation.

    2. Deepfakes and injected selfies in remote enrollment

    Facial recognition was once a trusted line of defense for remote learning and test proctoring. But fraudsters can now use emulators and virtual cameras to bypass those checks, inserting AI-generated faces into the stream to impersonate students. In education, where student data is a goldmine and systems are increasingly remote, the risk is even more pronounced.

    In virtual work environments, for example, enterprises are already seeing an uptick in the use of deepfakes during job interviews. By 2028, Gartner predicts 1 in 4 job candidates worldwide will be fake. The same applies to the education sector. We’re now seeing fake students, complete with forged government IDs and a convincing selfie, slide past systems and into financial aid pipelines.

    So, what’s the fix? Biometric identity intelligence, trusted by a growing number of students, can verify micro-movements, lighting, and facial depth, and confirm whether a real human is behind the screen. Multimodal checks (combining visual, motion, and even audio data) are critical for stopping AI-powered identity fraud.

    3. Synthetic students in your systems

    Unlike stolen identities, synthetic identities are crafted from real–and fake–fragments, such as a legit SSN combined with a fake name. These “students” can pass enrollment checks, get campus credentials, and even apply for financial aid.

    Traditional document checks aren’t enough to catch them. Today’s identity verification tools must use AI to detect missing elements, like holograms or watermarks, and flag patterns including identical document backgrounds, which is a key sign of industrial-scale fraud.

     AI-powered identity intelligence for education

    As digital learning becomes the norm and AI accelerates, identity fraud will only get more sophisticated. However, AI also offers educators a solution.

    By layering biometrics, behavioral analytics, and cross-platform data, schools can verify student identities at scale and in real time, keeping pace with advancing threats, and even staying one step ahead.

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  • International postgraduate enrolments continue to fall across UK universities

    International postgraduate enrolments continue to fall across UK universities

    Fresh enrolment data indicates a further fall in overseas students starting postgraduate courses in September 2025, marking another year of decline.

    Of 69 universities responding to a survey from the British Universities International Liaison Association (BUILA) in November 2025, 61% reported a decrease in postgraduate enrolments in international students in September 2025-26 compared with the previous year.

    Across all study levels, overall enrolments from overseas students are down 6%, according to the latest release from BUILA.

    Despite the drop, data shows that many institutions are seeing growth in postgraduate enrolments from the EU and the US, with average rises of 13% and 19% respectively.

    But the biggest overall enrolment drops came from China, where 80% of universities reported average declines of 17%. For India, 63% of institutions reported average drops of 9%.

    The decline is not as steep as previous years, where in November 2024, 80% of universities reported lower international postgraduate enrolments, with a 20% decrease overall, according to HESA data. 

    International students play a key role in UK postgraduate education, in 2023-24 making up 71% of full-time postgraduate enrolments and contributing significantly to universities’ teaching and research capacity. 

    The continued decline in international postgraduate enrolments this year is largely driven by increased competition from other global education destinations
    Andrew Bird, BUILA

    “The continued decline in international postgraduate enrolments this year is largely driven by increased competition from other global education destinations,” explained Andrew Bird, chair of BUILA.

    “With global competition intensifying, the government must act to protect the UK’s reputation as a world-leading study destination while balancing its immigration agenda.”

    The total number of study visas issued to international students fell by 19% between 2022 and 2024, as reported by The Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford. 

    The decline in study visas comes as universities prepare for the introduction of the international student levy, which will see English universities will charged a flat fee of £925 per international student per year from August 2028.

    Under the levy, each institution will receive an allowance covering only their first 220 students each year.

    The continued drop in international student numbers is likely to put additional financial pressure on universities, which rely heavily on fees from these students to support their budgets. 

    “With measures like the international student levy and tighter recruitment rules still to come, we urge the government to deliver a much-needed period of stability for the sector,” Bird added.

    “The budget confirmed that the levy will be introduced from 2028, so while 2026 enrolments are unlikely to be impacted, universities will be considering how to navigate the impact of this in a challenging financial environment.”

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  • How Superior Public Schools united curriculum and data

    How Superior Public Schools united curriculum and data

    Key points:

    Creating consistency between classrooms and ensuring curriculum alignment school-wide can be challenging, even in the smallest of districts. Every educator teaches–and grades–differently based on their experience and preferences, and too often, they’re forced into a solution that no longer respects their autonomy or acknowledges their strengths.

    When Superior Public Schools (SPS), a district of 450 students in rural Nebraska, defined standards-referenced curriculum as a priority of our continuous improvement plan, bringing teachers in as partners on the transition was essential to our success. Through their support, strategic relationships with outside partners, and meaningful data and reporting, the pathway from curriculum design to classroom action was a smooth one for teachers, school leaders, and students alike.

    Facing the challenge of a new curriculum

    For years, teachers in SPS were working autonomously in the classroom. Without a district-wide curriculum in place, they used textbooks to guide their instruction and designed lesson plans around what they valued as important. In addition, grading was performed on a normative curve that compared a student’s performance against the performance of their peers rather than in relation to a mastery of content.

    As other educators have discovered, the traditional approach to teaching may be effective for some students, but is inequitable overall when preparing all students for their next step, whether moving on to more complex material or preparing for the grade ahead. Kids were falling through the cracks, and existing opportunity gaps only began to grow.

    SPS set out to help our students by instituting standards-referenced instruction at both the elementary and secondary levels, allowing us to better identify each child’s progress toward set learning standards and deliver immediate feedback and intervention services to keep them on the path toward success.

    Take it slow and start with collaboration

    From day one, school leaders understood the transition to the new curriculum needed to be intentional and collaborative. 

    Rather than demand immediate buy-in from teachers, administrators and the curriculum team dedicated the time to help them understand the value of a new learning process. Together, we took a deep dive into traditional education practices, identifying which set students up for success and which actually detoured their progress. Recognizing that everyone–teachers included–learns in different ways, administrators also provided educators with a wide range of resources, such as book studies, podcasts, and articles, to help them grow professionally.

    In addition, SPS partnered with the Curriculum Leadership Institute (CLI) to align curriculum, instruction, and assessment practices across all content areas, schools, and grade levels. On-site CLI coaches worked directly with teachers to interpret standards and incorporate their unique teaching styles into new instructional strategies, helping to ensure the new curriculum translated seamlessly into daily classroom practice.

    To bring standards-referenced curriculum to life with meaningful insights and reporting, SPS integrated the Otus platform into our Student Information System. By collecting and analyzing data in a concise manner, teachers could measure student performance against specific learning targets, determining if content needed to be re-taught to the whole class or if specific students required one-on-one guidance.

    With the support of our teachers, SPS was able to launch the new curriculum and assessment writing process district-wide, reaching students in pre-K through 12th grade. However, standards-reference grading was a slower process, starting with one subject area at a time at the elementary level. Teachers who were initially uncomfortable with the new grading system were able to see the benefits firsthand, allowing them to ease into the transition rather than jump in headfirst. 

    Empowering educators, inspiring students

    By uniting curriculum and data, SPS has set a stronger foundation of success for every student. Progress is no longer measured by compliance but by a true mastery of classroom concepts.

    Teachers have become intentional with their lesson plans, ensuring that classroom content is directly linked to the curriculum. The framework also gives them actionable insights to better identify the skills students have mastered and the content areas where they need extra support. Teachers can adjust instruction as needed, better communicate with parents on their students’ progress, and connect struggling students to intervention services.

    Principals also look at student progress from a building level, identifying commonalities across multiple grades. For instance, if different grade levels struggle with geometry concepts, we can revisit the curriculum to see where improvements should be made. Conversely, we can better determine if SPS needs to increase the rigor in one grade to better prepare students for the next grade level.

    While the road toward standards-referenced curriculum had its challenges, the destination was worth the journey for everyone at SPS. By the end of the 2024-2025 school year, 84 percent of K-5 students were at or above the 41st percentile in math, and 79 percent were at or above the 41st percentile in reading based on NWEA MAP results. In addition, teachers now have a complete picture of every student to track individual progress toward academic standards, and students receive the feedback, support, and insights that inspire them to become active participants in their learning.

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  • Data: who’ll be worst affected by England’s international fee levy?

    Data: who’ll be worst affected by England’s international fee levy?

    Long-awaited details of the mooted levy on international students at English universities – due to take effect in 2028 – were released with Rachel Reeves’ Budget earlier this week to a largely negative reaction from international education stakeholders.

    Instead of the expected 6% tax on international student income suggested in the immigration white paper, the Treasury is instead consulting on a £925-per-international-student flat fee.

    However, under the proposals, each provider will receive an allowance covering their first 220 international students each year – meaning that many small or specialist institutions will be spared the tax.

    But larger institutions with higher numbers of international students will bear the brunt of the levy.

    HESA data from the 2023/24 academic year – the most recently available figures – gives an indication of which providers could be worst hit by the levy, although enrolment numbers may have changed since then and could shift dramatically before the policy finally comes into effect.

    London is the region set to be most impacted by the levy, with England’s capital welcoming the most international students. Meanwhile, the North East had the fewest.

    Here’s our round up of the top five institutions that risk losing out the most.

    University College London (UCL)

    Of the 614,000 international students at English institutions in the 2023/24 academic year, UCL was home to the largest amount, at 27,695.

    Under the proposals, if UCL had the same number of international students under the levy, it would be liable to pay over £25 million.

    The University of Manchester

    Coming in second is the University of Manchester, which had 19,475 international students in 2023/24. This would mean it would have to pay almost £18m under the levy proposals.

    The University of Hertfordshire

    In third place is the University of Hertfordshire, with 19,235 international students in 2023/24 – a levy amount of just over £17.5m.

    Kings College London

    Up next is Kings College London, with 15,850 international students, meaning it would be taxed a little under £14.5m

    The University of Leeds

    Another large metropolitan university set to be hit hard by the levy is the University of Leeds, with 15,605 international students. If enrolments numbers stay the same into 2028, it could face costs of over £14.2m.

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  • Study visa applications to NZ dip, approval rate jumps nearly 7%

    Study visa applications to NZ dip, approval rate jumps nearly 7%

    According to data highlighted by Immigration New Zealand (INZ), the government agency responsible for managing the country’s immigration system, the first 10 months of 2025 saw 55,251 study visa applications, down from 58,361 in the same period last year.

    However, approval rates have risen sharply. In 2024, INZ approved 42,724 of 58,361 applications (81.5%) and declined 9,161 (17.5%). Meanwhile, in 2025, despite fewer applications at 55,251, approvals rose to 43,203 (88.2%) with 5,317 declined (10.9%).

    NZ sets itself apart from other key study destinations

    Even as major anglophone study destinations take a cautious approach to international education policy, New Zealand is aiming to be an outlier in the market.

    The country is looking to boost international student enrolments from 83,700 to 119,000 by 2034 and double the sector’s value to NZD$7.2 billion (GBP £3.2bn) under the recently launched International Education Going for Growth plan.

    This month, new rules came into effect allowing eligible international tertiary and secondary students with visas from November 3 to work up to 25 hours a week, up from 20, while a new short-term work visa for some vocational graduates is also expected to be introduced soon.

    “As part of the International Education Going for Growth Plan, changes were announced to immigration settings to support sustainable growth and enhance New Zealand’s appeal as a study destination. These changes aim to maintain education quality while managing immigration risk,” Celia Coombes, director of visas for INZ, told The PIE.

    “Immigration New Zealand (INZ) and Education New Zealand (ENZ) work in close partnership to achieve these goals.”

    We have more students applying for Pathway Visas year on year, which means more visas granted for longer periods, and less ‘year by year’ applications
    Celia Coombes, Immigration New Zealand

    Why the drop in study visa applications?

    While study visa approval rates have skyrocketed over the past year — a stark contrast to the Covid period, when universities across New Zealand faced massive revenue losses owing to declining numbers — stakeholders point to a mix of factors behind the drop in new applications.

    “There has been an increase in approvals, but overall, a slight decrease in the number of students applying for a visa. However, interest in New Zealand continues to grow,” stated Coombes, who added that the number of individuals holding a valid study visa rose to 58,192 in August 2025, up from 45,512 a year earlier.

    “We have more students applying for Pathway Visas year on year, which means more visas granted for longer periods, and less ‘year by year’ applications.”

    While multi-year pathway visas can cover a full planned study path, reducing the need for repeated applications, Richard Kensington, an NZ-based international education consultant, says refinements could make the route more effective in attracting international students.

    “The Pathway Visa, introduced nearly a decade ago as a trial, has never been fully expanded. Although reviews are complete and the scheme is set to become permanent, no additional providers have been given access,” stated Kensington.

    “Simple refinements — such as allowing pathways to a broad university degree rather than a specific named programme — would encourage more students to utilise this route.”

    The drop could also be linked to the underdeveloped school sector and the slower recovery of New Zealand’s vocational education sector, as noted by Kensington.

    “The school sector remains one of New Zealand’s most untapped international education markets. Demand is growing, especially from families where a parent wishes to accompany the student. The Guardian Parent Visa makes that a viable option,” stated Kensington.

    “Vocational education hasn’t rebounded in the same way. The loss of work rights for sub-degree diplomas has significantly reduced demand from traditional migration markets.”

    New Zealand’s vocational education woes

    Just this year, the New Zealand government announced the disestablishment of Te Pūkenga, the country’s largest vocational education provider, formed through the merger of 16 Institutes of Technology and Polytechnics.

    It is being replaced by 10 standalone polytechnics, following concerns that the model had become too costly and centralised.

    “Te Pūkenga’s rise and fall created real confusion offshore. With standalone polytechnics returning, we should see greater stability from 2026 onwards,” Kensington added.

    “Many polytechnics are now relying on degree and master’s programmes, putting them in more direct competition with universities.”

    Applications fall in China, climb in India

    As per data shared by INZ on decided applications across both 2024 and 2025 — including on ones submitted in earlier years — countries like India (+2.7%), Nepal (+26.8%), Germany (+5.2%), and the Philippines (+7.8%) have seen growth in the number of study visas approved.

    Meanwhile, many East and Southeast Asian markets have recorded year-on-year declines, most notably the largest sending market, China, which dropped by 9.9%.

    The data shows that while 16,568 study visas were approved for China in January–October 2024, this fell to 14,929 in 2025 though it remains the largest source country.

    Other markets such as Japan (-9.7%), South Korea ( -24.8%), and Thailand (-33.7%) also saw significant declines.

    According to Frank Xing, director of marketing and operations at Novo Education Consulting, the slowdown from China is clear, with weaker student interest reflected in both their enquiries and feedback from partners, and echoed by some New Zealand institutions.

    “It’s a mixed picture — a few schools, particularly in the secondary sector, are still doing well, but many providers are starting to feel the impact,” stated Xing, who believes several factors are driving the slowdown.

    “The first is the weaker Chinese economy — many families have been affected by job losses or lower business income. In the past, property assets often helped families fund overseas study, but the real estate downturn has reduced that flexibility,” he added, also noting New Zealand’s own unemployment challenges and competition from lower-cost destinations.

    “We’ve actually seen some students abandon their New Zealand study plans or switch to more affordable destinations such as Malaysia or parts of Europe.”

    According to Xing, while China remains one of New Zealand schools’ strongest markets, this could change as Chinese families place greater emphasis on career outcomes — an area where New Zealand’s slower job market remains a challenge.

    He added that New Zealand’s role as the 2025 Country of Honour at China’s premier education expo could help raise awareness among prospective students.

    False applications remain a major concern

    For Education New Zealand and INZ, the more immediate challenge now lies in addressing fraudulent applications, according to Coombes.

    “New Zealand sees a lot of false financial documents. To address this and help ensure students have the money they need to live and study in New Zealand, we are improving processes to maintain integrity and streamline processing,” stated Coombes.

    “This includes expanding the Funds Transfer Scheme, where students deposit their living costs in New Zealand, and they are released monthly.”

    According to Kensington, some agencies across South Asia and likely parts of Africa, where New Zealand has limited representation may not meet required standards, creating challenges. However, he believes improved processing is reducing the impact.

    “INZ only accepts financial evidence from specific banks in some jurisdictions. Student loans must be secured; unsecured loans aren’t accepted even from major banks,” stated Kensington.

    “It’s hard to say whether fraud is increasing, but the rise in high-quality applications means INZ can process many files quickly and devote more time to forensic checks where needed.”

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  • Canada bears the brunt of ‘big four’ woes

    Canada bears the brunt of ‘big four’ woes

    The study, conducted by ApplyBoard, highlighted the absence of consistent communication around policy shifts in Canada, the US, UK and Australia last year – a persistent issue that it said would likely drive subdued demand across the four in 2026. 

    Although a slowdown in Canada was widely expected, ApplyBoard CEO Meti Basiri said the projected 54% decline in new study permits this year was “stark”, setting Canada on track to issue the lowest total international study visas of the big four in 2025.  

    As per ApplyBoard estimates, Canada will see the sharpest drop in new international students, granting just 80,000 postsecondary study visas this year, while the US and Australia are set to see less dramatic drops.

    The UK – the only ‘big four’ destination without a projected decline – is on track to maintain 2024 study visa issuance levels, in line new Home Office data showing a 7% increase in applications this year, though this could be slightly tempered by pending changes proposed by the immigration white paper.

    Source: ApplyBoard.

    Basiri said Canada’s projected 80,000 new study permits would mark the lowest number of post-secondary approvals for the past decade, including during the pandemic. Elsewhere, stakeholders have raised concerns about the country’s plummeting study visa approval rate, which dropped below 40% this year.

    As the government pursues its goal of reducing Canada’s temporary resident population to below 5% by the end of 2027, the sector has been hit with two years of federal policy changes leading to lower application volumes, lower approval rates, and a higher proportion of onshore extensions.

    At the same time, in a recent student survey, Canada scored highly on welcomeness – with roughly 71% of students viewing it as open, safe and welcoming – but it also had one of the highest levels of disagreement for this metric. 

    “That polarisation suggests that international students are picking up on the tension between Canada’s long-standing reputation, and the current reality of caps, more limited work rights, and public debate that often links international students to housing and affordability pressures,” said Basiri.

    The report highlighted the impact of domestic political pressures around housing and net migration causing governments to tighten visa requirements, impose caps, reduce post-study work streams and raise compliance thresholds.  

    However, Basiri said the deciding factor for students increasingly came down to financial considerations, including the cost of study, cost of living and the ability to work during and after their studies.  

    “While political decisions set the rules of the game, affordability is often the filter through which students evaluate those rules – making it the more powerful force driving more students to consider more financially accessible destinations across Europe and the Asia-Pacific region,” he said.  

    “The speed at which alternative destinations are stepping up is remarkable,” Basiri added, highlighting the efforts of Germany, France, Spain, New Zealand, South Korea, and the UAE establishing clearer career pathways and expanding work rights, among other factors to boost internationalisation. 

    The speed at which alternative destinations are stepping up is remarkable

    Meti Basiri, ApplyBoard

    While traditional destinations are experiencing dips in demand, overall international student mobility continues to flourish, with more than 10 million students expected to study outside their home countries by the end of the decade, up from 6.9m in 2024.  

    The emergence of alternative destinations has not gone unnoticed, with another recent report tracking the rise of education “powerhouses” across Asia, fuelled by more English-taught programs, growing job opportunities and affordable study options.  

    Meanwhile, Europe is catching students’ attention, with European countries accounting for eight out of the top 10 destinations – outside the big four, Germany and Ireland – in ApplyBoard’s recent survey of student advisors.

    Basiri identified Germany and Spain as the destinations poised for the most growth next year: “Each offers a strong combination of affordability, workforce alignment, and clear post-study pathways that align with student priorities … Together, they are helping to shape the next wave of student mobility,” he said. 

    The rise of Germany in recent years has been widely reported on across the sector, with international enrolments on track to surpass 400,000 last year. What’s more, two-thirds of Germany’s international students say they intend to stay and work in the country after graduating.  

    Meanwhile, this summer the Spanish government authorised a policy to fast-track international students impacted by US visa restrictions, alongside authorising part-time work for students this academic year.  

    Coupled with previous measures relaxing visa requirements and new work and dependents rights, Spain is becoming “one of the most student-friendly destinations in Europe” said Basiri, noting its heightened appeal among Latin American students due to language and cultural affinities, as well as streamlined routes into the workforce.  

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