Category: Politics

  • Una de cada cinco personas que proveen cuidado infantil es inmigrante.

    Una de cada cinco personas que proveen cuidado infantil es inmigrante.

    Nueve días después de que el presidente Donald Trump firmara órdenes ejecutivas con medidas enérgicas contra la inmigración ilegal, Damaris Alvarado-Rodríguez decidió cerrar un aula en una de sus guarderías en Filadelfia.

    A pesar de tener tarjetas de residencia, las maestras de ese salón de clases, en donde atienden a niños y niñas que tienen un año de edad, estaban demasiado nerviosas para ir a trabajar. Desde que Trump tomó posesión, sus funcionarios se han enfocado en Filadelfia y otras denominadas ciudades santuario donde se limita la cooperación en la aplicación de las leyes de inmigración. Los agentes de inmigración han estado presentes constantemente en los vecindarios donde están situados los tres centros de Alvarado-Rodríguez.

    “Tengo mucho miedo de cómo esto va a afectar a nuestros niños, familias y personal”, dijo.

    En un programa de cuidado infantil familiar en Albuquerque, Nuevo México, Maggie, de 47 años, quien fue abogada antes de emigrar desde México hace 10 años, también ha visto los rápidos efectos de las órdenes ejecutivas. Cinco de los 12 niños a su cuidado dejaron de presentarse. Maggie dijo a través de un intérprete que los padres deciden dejar a sus hijos pequeños con hermanos mayores o abuelos en lugar de con ella, es decir, que salen de casa solo para trabajar y así estar fuera del alcance de las autoridades lo más posible. (The Hechinger Report no utiliza los nombres completos de algunos de los entrevistados porque temen por su seguridad). 

    “Los padres dijeron: ‘Vamos a esperar a que las cosas se calmen’”, dijo Maggie.

    Relacionado: La educación es una labor de toda la vida. Suscríbete a nuestro boletín semanal gratuito, que incluye las noticias más importantes sobre el mundo de la educación.

    En Estados Unidos, 1 de cada 5 trabajadores de cuidado infantil es inmigrante. En ciudades grandes como Nueva York, los inmigrantes constituyen más del 40 % de la fuerza laboral de cuidado infantil. En Los Ángeles, es de casi el 50 %.

    “En la economía del cuidado infantil, los inmigrantes son la columna vertebral de este trabajo”, afirma Erica Phillips, directora ejecutiva de la Asociación Nacional de Cuidado Infantil Familiar. Estos educadores de la primera infancia se “dedican a prestar uno de los servicios más esenciales y con mayor impacto para los niños pequeños de todo el país”.

    Los expertos opinan que las órdenes ejecutivas de Trump amenazan dicha columna vertebral. Entre otros cambios, las órdenes amplían las normas sobre qué inmigrantes pueden ser deportados rápidamente, sin tener una audiencia; exigen que algunos no ciudadanos se registren y presenten huellas dactilares; y limitan los permisos de trabajo.

    Un patio de recreo en uno de los centros de cuidado infantil que Damaris Alvarado-Rodríguez dirige en Filadelfia. Alvarado-Rodríguez recientemente cerró una de las aulas porque varios maestros tenían miedo de ir a trabajar debido a posibles redadas de ICE. Credit: Image provided by Damaris Alvarado-Rodriguez

    Varios proveedores de cuidado infantil dijeron que la situación parece más grave que en años anteriores. La actual administración ha establecido cuotas diarias de aprehensiones de inmigrantes, lo que ha producido arrestos de más inmigrantes por día que el promedio bajo la administración anterior. Esto incluye a muchos sin antecedentes penales, que no eran el blanco de la ejecución de la ley bajo el expresidente Joe Biden. Asimismo, Trump ha impulsado medidas para terminar con el estatus legal de millones de personas pues propuso eliminar la ciudadanía por nacimiento.

    Estados Unidos no puede permitirse perder personal de cuidado infantil. Hay ya muchos programas que tienen problemas crónicos de rotación de trabajadores, lo que puede crear inestabilidad en las vidas de los niños y niñas a su cuidado. Las tasas de rotación en el sector de cuidado infantil son  65 % más altas que el promedio en otros sectores. Los salarios bajos (una trabajadora promedio de cuidado infantil gana 13,07 dólares la hora) dificultan la contratación de personal. A menudo, los cuidadores carecen de prestaciones y pueden ganar más al trabajar en restaurantes de comida rápida o en venta minorista. La pandemia debilitó la fuerza laboral, algo que se ha tardado en reponer. Para lidiar con la escasez de cuidadores infantiles, varios estados han intentado aprobar leyes que permitan a los adolescentes trabajar en dichas aulas. 

    “Ya estamos empezando desde un punto en el que no hay suficiente cuidado infantil, los programas están en apuros y la fuerza laboral ya está viviendo un estrés increíble”, dijo Lea Austin, directora ejecutiva del Centro para el Estudio del Empleo en el Cuidado Infantil de la Universidad de California en Berkeley. “Solo podemos esperar que esto vaya a devastar aún más todo el ecosistema de cuidado y educación temprana”.

    El país lleva mucho tiempo recurriendo a los inmigrantes para los trabajos de cuidado, incluido el cuidado infantil y otras labores como el cuidado de personas mayores. Los inmigrantes tienen mayor probabilidad de servir como cuidadores de “amistades, familiares y vecinos” al asumir acuerdos informales de atención donde hay flexibilidad y que son más populares entre padres de familia.

    Al desempeñar estas funciones de cuidado, los inmigrantes permiten que otros padres puedan trabajar. Se calcula que hay 142.000 inmigrantes indocumentados que trabajan como niñeras y asistentes de atención personal o de salud en el hogar en todo el país, lo que crea “un efecto multiplicador de productividad en toda la economía”, según una investigación del Center for American Progress. En la ciudad de Nueva York, la mayoría de las 14.000 niñeras de la ciudad son inmigrantes.

    Relacionado: ‘Hay una cultura de temor’: Estudiantes indocumentados agonizan ante comienzo del nuevo mandato de Trump

    En el norte de California, Adriana, una joven de 27 años que emigró de México hace dos años, dijo que quiere empezar a trabajar y que recientemente le ofrecieron un empleo en una compañía grande. No obstante, primero necesita encontrar una guardería para su bebé de 3 meses, y le preocupa que los funcionarios de inmigración la separen de su bebé. “Tengo miedo, sobre todo porque parece que podrán entrar en mi lugar de trabajo”, dijo a través de un intérprete. “Me preocupa dejar a mi bebé solo”.

    El Servicio de Inmigración y Control de Aduanas de EE. UU. (ICE, por sus siglas en inglés) no respondió a las múltiples solicitudes de comentarios. Una de las órdenes ejecutivas de Trump, firmada poco después de haber asumido el cargo, anuló las restricciones que impedían que ICE realice redadas en escuelas y programas de cuidado infantil.

     Las tarjetas rojas que ofrecen algunos programas de cuidado infantil y escuelas, como estas en un centro en Texas, tienen como objetivo ayudar a las familias a comprender sus derechos en caso de ser detenidas por agentes de inmigración. Credit: Jackie Mader/The Hechinger Report

    La política de inmigración puede tener un efecto paralizador en las comunidades, lo que hace que los inmigrantes eviten trabajos que podrían aumentar su visibilidad ante las autoridades, dijo Chris Herbst, profesor asociado de la Universidad Estatal de Arizona, que estudió el impacto de la política en el cuidado infantil entre 2008 y 2014. Debido a que el sistema de cuidado infantil de Estados Unidos depende tanto del trabajo de los inmigrantes, “los impactos son instantáneos”, añadió.

    En Albuquerque, Ana dirige un programa de cuidado infantil que atiende a 50 familias del área, la mayoría de las cuales son ciudadanas estadounidenses. Ana se fue de México en 2020 con su esposo y su hijo pequeño cuando la violencia aumentó en su estado natal de Sinaloa, y ahora le preocupa que la puedan deportar. Ese tipo de preocupación la comparte su personal: tres de sus 14 empleados han dejado de ir a trabajar por miedo a las redadas de inmigración.

    Recientemente, Ana y su esposo reunieron algunas pertenencias en caso de ser detenidos. Para prepararse, también han considerado certificar un documento de tutela encargando a su hijo de 3 años, que es ciudadano estadounidense, así como de su hijo de 8 años, que no es ciudadano, a un familiar. “Lo que nos motiva es mejorar la situación de nuestras familias, vivir en mejores lugares y aumentar las oportunidades para nuestros hijos”, dijo. “Esperamos que [los funcionarios de inmigración] persigan a los delincuentes y no intenten seguir o perseguir a personas que son buenas y trabajadoras”.

    Elida Cruz dirige un programa de cuidado infantil en el centro de California donde atiende a los hijos de trabajadores migrantes. Cruz opina que el miedo es palpable en algunos de los padres de familia; tanto ella como su esposo reparten víveres y transportan a los pequeños hacia y desde su programa de cuidado infantil para que los padres puedan limitar su tiempo fuera de casa. Su esposo escogió una palabra clave con una familia, la cual pronuncia tres veces para que los padres sepan que es seguro abrir la puerta.

    Relacionado: Las amenazas de deportación de Trump pesan sobre los grupos que ofrecen ayuda con la FAFSA

    Cruz, como muchas otras proveedoras de cuidado infantil, ha intentado educar a las familias inmigrantes sobre sus derechos al compartir con ellas recursos disponibles y entregarles “tarjetas rojas” que aconsejan a las personas sobre qué hacer si se les acercan agentes de inmigración. Además de preocuparse por los efectos en las familias y los niños, le preocupa qué sucederá si dichas familias se van. “Financieramente, sería la devastación de mi negocio”, dijo. “Tendría que cerrar. Me quedaría sin clientes, sin niños”, añadió. “Nuestros negocios se van a hundir porque todos dependemos de los trabajadores del campo”. 

    Puede que solo sea cuestión de tiempo: incluso los niños pequeños a su cargo parecen estar conscientes de que las cosas podrían cambiar en cualquier momento. “Es desgarrador ver las caritas de los niños, llenas de miedo”, dijo. Un niño preguntó si los agentes de inmigración vendrían a su centro.

    Cruz le dijo lo único que se le ocurrió, aunque sabía que era una mentira piadosa. 

    “Le dije: ‘¿Sabes por qué no van a venir aquí? … Porque ni siquiera tienen nuestra dirección, así que no saben que estamos aquí, mijo’”. 

    Camilla Forte contribuyó con el reportaje.

    Comunícate con Jackie Mader al 212-678-3562 o [email protected]

    Este artículo sobre el cuidado infantil fue producido por The Hechinger Report, una organización de noticias independiente sin fines de lucro centrada en la desigualdad y la innovación en la educación. Suscríbete a nuestro boletín de noticias.

    The Hechinger Report provides in-depth, fact-based, unbiased reporting on education that is free to all readers. But that doesn’t mean it’s free to produce. Our work keeps educators and the public informed about pressing issues at schools and on campuses throughout the country. We tell the whole story, even when the details are inconvenient. Help us keep doing that.

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  • Podcast: OfS chair, employment, skills

    Podcast: OfS chair, employment, skills

    This week on the podcast Nottingham Trent VC Edward Peck has been confirmed as the government’s candidate for Chair of OfS. But what does his focus on “quality improvement” and engagement with governing bodies mean for the regulator’s approach—and how will his skepticism of government bailouts impact struggling institutions?

    Meanwhile, as the Employment Rights Bill sees significant amendments, we unpack what proposed changes to zero-hours contracts and industrial action rules could mean for universities and students. And with the policy spotlight shifting from “knowledge” to “skills,” we’re asking—where do universities fit into the UK’s economic vision?

    With Brooke Storer-Church, CEO at GuildHE, Neil Mackenzie, CEO at Leeds Beckett Students’ Union, David Kernohan, Deputy Editor at Wonkhe and hosted by Jim Dickinson, Associate Editor at Wonkhe.

    Read more

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  • Will Trump’s “anti-wokeism” change DEI in Australian universities?

    Will Trump’s “anti-wokeism” change DEI in Australian universities?

    United States President Donald Trump’s first six weeks of his second term has been defined by 76 executive orders, the disestablishment of the national education department and establishment of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

    One of the most controversial executive orders, which is a written directive signed by a president that orders immediate governmental action, was titled “Ending Radical And Wasteful Government DEI Programs And Preferencing,” signed on President Trump’s first day back in office on January 20, 2025.

    He directed all federal DEI staff be placed on paid leave and, eventually, laid off. He has also signed another Executive Order, titled “Ending Illegal Discrimination and Restoring Merit-Based Opportunity.”

    DEI stands for diversity, equity and inclusion, and refers to programs and committees that help people from underrepresented backgrounds (women, Indigenous, Black, for instance) get into, and stay in, jobs or courses those people wouldn’t traditionally participate in. It is largely similar to the strategy of the Australian Universities Accord.

    President Trump has also cut funding to schools and universities that do not cancel DEI programs. He labelled the programs “radical,” “wasteful” and said they demonstrate “immense public waste and shameful discrimination.”

    The full effects of these Executive Orders and DEI changes are yet to be seen because decisions regarding DEI will ultimately be made by the court.

    However, private companies in the US have walked away from internal DEI programs, including Meta (which has worked closely with Trump as of late), Google (which provides some services to the US government), Pepsi, Disney and multiple prominent banks.

    There has been no significant walk away from DEI in Australian private companies, and many universities continue to discuss how to bolster and “future-proof” internal DEI programs.

    Australia’s ambassador to the US from 2020 to 2023, Arthur Sinodinos, told the Universities Australia Solutions Summit last week that institutions are best off making decisions “based off their objectives,” but should enact genuine change, not just tick diversity boxes.

    Arthur Sinodinos said DEI should be about achieving true diversity rather than ticking boxes. Picture: Sam Ruttyn

    “My view on DEI is that [universities should] start from a posture that they want to make the best use of all the talent and resources available to them,” he said.

    “If you’re also interested in trying to expand the reach of higher education to groups that might otherwise be disadvantaged, you have to find ways to do that, but in a way that also addresses the genuine issue.

    “I think access to higher education is still important for a country like Australia, which has to make – given its population – the best use of the resources it’s got.

    “The argument that you can just leave it to the market, the meritocracy will still be there [is wrong]. Frankly, in the market, some people start with a head start with with inbuilt advantages.”

    President Trump’s former White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney, who was also on the panel at the UA summit, said he thinks DEI programs in the US have gone “too far to one side.”

    Former Trump White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney said he thinks DEI has gone “too far” in the US. Picture: UA

    “One of the reasons you’re seeing the pushback against it in my country is that it went too far to one side. I don’t know where it is in this country, but at some point it may go too far, and the pushback will come.”

    He also explained why this Trump term is already more action-packed than his first was at this time: the President expected to win in November, 2024, but not in 2016.

    “Not only did [Trump] expect to win, [his team has] been working for four years on what they would do when they won,” he said.

    “What are we gonna do the first day? The first week, the first month, the first 100 days? Which is why we’re seeing all these executive orders. It’s actually four years worth of planning coming forward.”

    Mr Mulvaney said he thinks DEI could survive if its reasoning for existing is communicated in a tailored way.

    He said Trump’s administration is receptive to initiatives that improve efficiency, productivity and merit.

    “You could have a program that is good on on the climate, [for example,] but that’s not your selling pitch. That doesn’t register with the person you’re talking to,” he explained.

    Related stories: “Unis are not Centrelink offices”: Coalition’s pitch to university leaders | Q&A: Bill Shorten talks VC pay cuts and politics in HE | Report card: Accord recommendations 12 months on

    “You have to learn how to speak the language of the person you’re talking to. Don’t change what you’re doing, perhaps just simply change how you explain it.”

    UA chief executive Luke Sheehy was asked after his National Press Club address last Wednesday whether he thinks an “anti-woke” sentiment will affect how universities function.

    Luke Sheehy’s membership body discussed the impact of “Trump 2.0” at last week’s conference. Picture: UA

    “Obviously there’s a major disruption that’s happened in America with Trump 2.0 … One of the things we’ve learned is, once articulated in a certain way, positive sentiment skyrockets for universities,” he responded.

    “If you offer a simple proposition: we have 4,000 fewer teachers than we need today ,and universities are the only way to get those skilled workers into the workforce to support young people; we need 132,000 more nurses, etc.

    “Then remove yourself from what happens on the front pages of newspapers and what occupies political pundits, and think about what the real Australian people need and want from the university sector.

    “My hope is that the more we talk about the important role of universities and our core mission in education and research, the more Australians, irrespective of whether or not they went to university or not, they see the value for us as part of our future.”

    The university sector’s declining “social license” has been a major topic of discussion of late for university leaders.

    There is a growing sentiment that universities, and the knowledge economy, needs to “show” society why they’re worth the funding and enrolments.

    “We always have more work to do. In an era where there is declining trust in institutions, I think it’s really important that universities invest in themselves in terms of how they engage with their communities,” Mr Sheehy continued.

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  • “Unis are not Centrelink offices”: Coalition’s pitch to university leaders

    “Unis are not Centrelink offices”: Coalition’s pitch to university leaders

    The Coalition would scrap Australian Tertiary Education Commission (ATEC) and have an independent tribunal decide vice-chancellor pay, opposition education spokeswoman Senator Sarah Henderson told universities on Wednesday.

    Reinstating the 50 per cent pass rate rule and significantly capping overseas students to inner-city Sydney and Melbourne unis are also top of the list.

    The senator outlined her party’s priorities for the first time at the Universities Australia Solutions Summit, a meeting of university leaders, which also facilitated discussion within the sector about current issues.

    The Coalition is adamant that “Australian students must come first” in every decision universities make, but that direction would come from vice-chancellors and a regulator, not government policy, she said.

    “To put students first, universities must be governed by strong and principled leaders who run their institutions efficiently, transparently and with integrity,” she said.

    “Universities must be able to operate with certainty and plan for the long term, free from day-to-day government intervention and policy chaos; overseen by a tough and feared regulator, which enforces the highest standards when required.”

    An LNP government will cancel the establishment of ATEC, and instead the Tertiary Education Quality Standards Agency (TEQSA) would be the responsible regulator.

    “This is another layer of education bureaucracy and a significant cost which will not take our universities forward. It certainly does not add value to students,” she said.

    Senator Henderson said things like scholarships and student support funds, which ATEC has been tasked with reviewing, is work for government and ministers.

    “The ATEC tells us this government doesn’t know what to do. There’s no proper understanding of its role, no legislation. And yet it is set to commence in three months time,” she said.

    “The hard work you would expect a government to undertake is being sent to the Commission.

    Her party would assess changes to funds such as the Higher Education Partnerships and Participation Program and the Indigenous Students Support Fund by asking the following questions: “Do they support quality of teaching and learning? Labour market needs? Equity access so all Australians can aspire to university education? Student completion rates and employment outcomes?”

    The LNP previously announced it would increase the number of Commonwealth-supported places for medial students by 100 in 2026 and 2027, and by 150 from 2028, an Accord-recommended policy.

    The party has not changed its position on Job-Ready Graduates, she said, but it will review the funding arrangement.

    Although the senator welcomed the Universities Accord final report’s recommendations, she said the Albanese government has unfairly placed the burden of reform onto individuals and universities.

    She said Education Minister Jason Clare has “outsourced much of the heavy lifting” to Accord chair Professor Mary O’Kane and her panel.

    She also said universities should not bear the burden of means-testing students, in other words, evaluating whether a student is eligible for government support regarding the Commonwealth prac payment.

    “Consider, for instance, the prac payments: discretionary grant programs where you are being asked to means-test students. Universities are not Centrelink offices,” she said.

    “We understand that universities are big and complex organizations, but they have not enjoyed a strong track record always in supporting students. Too many times students have been left high and dry.”

    She also said TEQSA has not done enough to protect women from sexual violence on campus or Jewish students and staff from anti-Semitism.

    “A Dutton government would adopt zero-tolerance of anti-Semitism on university campuses. We will not wait for universities to act in their own time,” she said.

    The senator told universities they need to do more to stop anti-Semitism on campuses. Picture: UA

    “We expect all universities to fully cooperate with the new dedicated anti-Semitism Task Force, led by the Australian Federal Police and other agencies.”

    All Australian vice-chancellors agreed on a definition of anti-Semitism on Wednesday. While the senator said she appreciated the vice-chancellors agreement, the Coalition would require unis to adopt the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance’s definition, which is a more robust framework and definition, she said.

    The Coalition would implement a national higher education code to prevent and respond to anti-Semitism and establish a judicial inquiry into anti-Semitism at Australian universities, she announced.

    “We will leave no stone unturned, including amending the Fair Work Act if necessary.”

    Another LNP priority is to reinstate the 50 per cent pass rate rule, she said.

    “We don’t believe there are enough safeguards to protect struggling students from leaving university with no qualification and a large student debt,” she said.

    The Accord final report recommended removing the rule as a “priority action”. The rule says students who failed over half of their studies weren’t eligible for a HECS-HELP loan and had to pay upfront.

    Theoretically, the rule was supposed to protect young people from acquiring debt with no qualifications, aimed at students who are possibly ill-placed to be at university.

    Practically, the Accord panel found the rule disproportionately affected students from First Nations, low socioeconomic and other underrepresented or educationally disadvantaged backgrounds, who are more likely to fall behind in university due to external circumstances.

    The rule was removed and replaced with the ‘support for students policy‘ in July 2023.

    Later on Wednesday in his National Press Club address, UA chief executive Luke Sheehy said bringing back the rule would be detrimental to students in equity cohorts, which the Accord and the Labor government have been trying to help become qualified for economic reasons.

    “It would be devastating. Our universities were very displeased and upset with the 50 per cent rule when it came in because it undermines the autonomy of our world class teachers and educators at our universities to support students in their own universities,” he said.

    “I always worry about mandated policies from one central point in Canberra, made without proper consultation. It’s such a blunt rule. And we will be asking again for the Coalition to reconsider that.”

    Vice-chancellor salaries would be set by the Remuneration Tribunal, not university boards, under a Dutton government.

    “In this cost-of-living crisis, the current situation, frankly, does not meet the pub test,” she told the audience.

    The senator would also back an “Australian universities performance index”, a website accessible to the public that provides measurements of an institution’s completion rates, student satisfaction, course quality and cost.

    “As a parent, I can attest to the complexity of navigating the university system for school leavers or those seeking to reskill or upgrade their qualifications,” she said.

    “Just working out to which course to apply [for] is a challenge. So rather than judge universities on the research dollars they generate, which drives international students and global rankings, let’s focus on home-grown performance.

    Related stories: Universities Australia’s pitch to governments | Mary O’Kane to lead ATEC from July | Ombudsman: What universities can start doing now to support students

    “This reform will drive up competition, lift teaching standards and ensure students make informed choices about their education.”

    While both major parties plan to bring down the number of international students studying in Australia, the Coalition’s cap would be harsher than a Labor government’s, and would focus on getting overseas students out of cities, where two-thirds of them reside, and into the regions.

    She echoed a speech delivered by veteran businesswoman and University of Technology Sydney chancellor Catherine Livingstone on Tuesday: universities haven’t been listening to community concerns about the “perceived impact of immigration on housing availability and affordability.’’

    “We persist with offering opaque and inflated claims about [universities’] direct impact,” Senator Henderson said.

    “[The current number of international students] is not good for our country or for the education outcomes of Australian students. We need to get the balance right. Every country has a responsibility to run its migration program in the national interest.”

    She said more information about a Coalition overseas student policy will be announced in the next few weeks.

    The LNP is disheartened about the lack of commercialisation of research, the senator said, which will be “put back on the agenda,” fostering more collaboration between universities and industry to boost student experience and job-readiness.

    It will also reinstate ministerial discretion to all Australian Research Council grant programs, in contrast to the current government which has control of only some research grants,.

    By doing so, the government has “absolved itself of its responsibility to safeguard precious taxpayer funds in the interest of all Australians.”

    “Under our Westminster system of government, the buck stops with the government of the day, and not an unelected board,” she continued.

    “Universities matter. But universities that are run in the best interests of students really matter.

    “If I am given the honor of being the next Minister for Education, I look forward to working closely with you with certainty, not ambiguity, to share in this crucial mission.

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  • Podcast: New leaders, gen-AI, visas

    Podcast: New leaders, gen-AI, visas

    This week on the podcast UK Research and Innovation and the Office for Students both have new leadership – but what does that mean for the future of regulation, research funding, and sector confidence?

    Meanwhile, a new report reveals a dramatic rise in student use of generative AI, and as speculation swirls over potential changes to post-study work visas, the sector braces for further uncertainty in international student recruitment.

    With Mark Bennett, Director (Audience & Insight) at FindAUniversity, Sarah Cowan, Head of Policy (Higher Education and Research) at the British Academy, Michael Salmon, News Editor at Wonkhe, and presented by Mark Leach, Editor-in-Chief at Wonkhe.

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  • Will the Vatican find its next pope in an unlikely place?

    Will the Vatican find its next pope in an unlikely place?

    If you’ve seen the award-winning film “Conclave”, you now know how exciting it can be when Catholicism’s cardinals gather behind closed doors to elect a new pope. The declining health in Pope Francis, 88, means another conclave is coming sooner rather than later. 

    So who is likely to win? The truth is — we have no idea. 

    What are the issues the world’s 1.3 billion Catholics would like the next head of their worldwide Church to tackle? We don’t know that for certain either. 

    In his 12 years as pope, Francis has so scrambled the Church and the traditional paths toward becoming its leader that the conclave — already the strangest election you’ll never see — is even harder than ever to predict. 

    With the 120 cardinal electors so unsure, unforeseen events like a stirring speech behind closed doors can produce big changes. That’s how Buenos Aires Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio became Pope Francis back in 2013. 

    Don’t trust the early bets.

    Another lesson from recent conclaves is to be very wary of any lists of leading candidates. They are not based on opinion polls or popularity contests like forecasts before political elections. 

    They are in fact little more than educated guesses by journalists and bookmakers, and can be laughingly far off the mark. 

    Many lists prior to the 2005 conclave named Milan Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi as a leading candidate; he reportedly got only two votes. In 2013, the pro-conclave lists of papabili — potential popes — did not even mention the eventual winner. 

    But readers always want to know what will happen, and the final result we can’t predict. Since this will be the third conclave I’ve either covered or commented on, let me at least say what to expect.

    First of all, if you want, go see the film “Conclave”at best before we learn if it has won any Oscars. Sure, the film is tenser and more action-packed than a real conclave, and its ending seems improbable. Due to timing limits, the leading characters are painted with a rather cartoonish brush. There are some small mistakes.

    But this is entertainment, not a documentary. It is beautifully filmed. It gives an idea of the predictable ritual and possible mishaps that could influence the outcome. It’s worth seeing even if not totally believing.

    Politicking for popedom

    As the film shows, hopeful candidates drum up support without publicly declaring their candidacy. Open campaigning is out but supporters eagerly swap information about favorites and opponents. 

    Speeches about the Church during the closed-door “general congregations” meeting the week before the conclave become veiled campaign pitches for the ambitious.

    Once they enter the Sistine Chapel for the conclave, the cardinals are cut off from the outside world and sworn to secrecy. This lasts for a few days of voting — a two-thirds majority is needed — until white smoke goes up from the chapel’s chimney and the new pope appears in public for the first time on the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica next door.

    What makes this conclave even more unpredictable than earlier ones is that Pope Francis has often overlooked traditional cardinal’s seats in Europe to give red hats to lesser-known and more pastorally-minded bishops from his beloved “peripheries.”

    There are now cardinals in unlikely places such as Yangon, Ulaanbaatar, Algiers and Tehran, representing minuscule communities of Catholics. It’s hard to say what these prelates think or how they will vote.

    A new pope could mean a new direction.

    Pope Francis has appointed about 80 of the current cardinal electors out of 120, so the two-thirds majority needed for election should be there. But since so many of them are not known in Rome, it’s hard to say whether they want to continue his policies or take the Church in a different direction.

    After the 2013 conclave, several conservative Catholic groups — mostly in the United States — disapproved of Pope Francis’s more open style. They said cardinals did not have enough information before they voted him in, and vowed to publish detailed profiles of all prelates on the internet. 

    The College of Cardinals Report seems the furthest advanced, with profiles of 40 cardinals with their positions on key issues like abortion or woman priests. It is headed by Edward Pentin, a conservative Vatican watcher. 

    Another project, the Red Hat Report, began in 2018 with lots of publicity saying ex-FBI agents would do some of the research and freelancers would help edit cardinals’ Wikipedia pages. It also leans conservative but has not made much noise recently. 

    Their main candidate appears to be Budapest Cardinal Péter Erdő, who headed the Council of the Bishops’ Conferences of Europe from 2006 to 2016. 

    Considered close to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, he seems not to share Pope Francis’s very welcoming views on migration but has hosted two visits by Pope Francis to Budapest.

    Power in the Global South

    Another conservative noticed is Kinshasa Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, although the very traditional stances African prelates take turn off other cardinals. 

    Progressives mentioned include Bologna Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, head of the Italian Bishops Conference, and Curia Cardinal Luis Tagle, a Filipino once dubbed the “Asian Francis.” But it’s unclear whether a majority of cardinals wants an extension of the Francis years.

    There are also moderates such as two Italians — possibly too diplomatic Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the current Secretary of Stage (number two man at the Vatican), and Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem — as well as French Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline, who shares Pope Francis’s interest in the Mediterranean and caring for its migrants.

    But with two-thirds of all Catholics now in the Global South, will the conclave return to the Italian and then European monopoly on the papacy after an Argentinian pope?

    There are far more questions than answers. We’ll only start to know the responses after the white smoke rises.


     

    Three questions to consider:

    1. Why was Pope Francis hailed as a rule-breaker when he was elected to head the Catholic Church in 2013?
    2. How does politics play out in the election of a new pope?
    3. If you were part of the next conclave what would you be looking for in the candidates for pope?


     

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