Tag: cliff

  • The Enrollment Cliff Is Here and Now What?  

    The Enrollment Cliff Is Here and Now What?  

    Higher education is facing a pivotal moment. Institutions across the country are bracing for a significant decline in enrollment—a phenomenon widely known as the Enrollment Cliff. This looming challenge is not a distant threat but a present reality. According to EducationDynamics’ 2025 Landscape of Higher Education report, 29% of Americans perceive the cost of education as unjustifiable, raising concerns about affordability and value. At the same time, the last several years have been marked by year-over-year enrollment declines, with freshman enrollment declining by 1.5% overall in fall 2022, including a 5.6% drop at highly selective institutions.  These continued losses signal a diminishing undergraduate pipeline, making it increasingly difficult for colleges to recover pre-pandemic enrollment levels. 

    Colleges and universities that rely on traditional enrollment strategies find themselves at risk as the pool of prospective students shrinks.  

    The question is no longer whether institutions will be impacted but rather how they will adapt. Understanding and engaging the Modern Learner is critical to developing sustainable enrollment strategies. Institutions that recognize this shift and align their marketing, recruitment and engagement strategies accordingly will be the ones that thrive in the changing landscape.  

    What Caused the Enrollment Cliff?

    The Enrollment Cliff stems from a variety of factors, including demographic and behavioral changes. Declining birth rates in the early 2000s have resulted in fewer high school graduates, meaning a smaller population of traditional college-aged students. At the same time, the percentage of high school graduates choosing to enroll in college has been significantly decreasing, with 9% choosing not to pursue college after completing high school. Amid this environment, the value of a degree has also been increasingly questioned. Rising tuition costs, skepticism about degree value, and the rise in alternative pathways have all contributed to this shift.

    For decades, institutions have relied on a steady pipeline of high school graduates to sustain enrollment. However, this model is no longer sustainable. Institutions must rethink their recruitment strategies and expand their focus beyond the traditional student demographic to remain competitive in an increasingly uncertain landscape.

    Why is College Enrollment Declining?

    While the Enrollment Cliff is primarily driven by demographic trends, the decline in college enrollment is also influenced by shifting student priorities and perceptions of higher education. Economic uncertainties, rising concerns about student debt, and the growing number of alternative credentials have made prospective students more hesitant about pursuing a four-year degree. As we discussed in our previous blog article, Seeing Past the Enrollment Cliff of 2025, this shift is compounded by the growing demand for more flexible, career-oriented education options, alongside the growing belief among students that the cost of a traditional college education is increasingly unjustifiable. 

    Despite overall enrollment projections remaining flat throughout 2030, this stagnation masks a critical shift—the student population is becoming more diverse in age and educational backgrounds. Non-traditional students—working adults, career changers, and life-long learners—are now a growing factor in higher education. Institutions that fail to recognize and adapt to these changing dynamics are falling behind.   

    Additionally, the financial health of many colleges and universities is increasingly at stake. Since 2019, institutional risk levels have risen, signaling heightened financial pressures due to enrollment declines. As tuition revenue declines, schools must find innovative ways to attract and retain students.  

    Who is the New College Student? It’s the Modern Learner.

    To combat the Enrollment Cliff, institutions must first understand who they are trying to reach—the Modern Learner.  

    The Modern Learner is not bound by traditional academic pathways. They prioritize flexibility and accessibility, seeking educational experiences that align with career objectives, financial constraints, and personal commitments. Modern Learners are the architects of their own educational journeys, emphasizing cost, convenience, and career outcomes as their primary decision-factors.  

    Modern Learners expect institutions to meet them where they are—whether that means offering online and hybrid courses, providing transparent career-aligned curriculums, or delivering personalized learning experiences. The assumption that age determines learning modality is outdated. Today, students of all backgrounds demand control over how, when, and where they learn. 

    Institutions that recognize these evolving preferences and tailor their offerings accordingly will be best positioned to sustain and grow their enrollment in coming years.  

    How to Combat the Enrollment Cliff with a Unified Strategy

    Higher education professionals can effectively navigate the enrollment cliff, but success in this new landscape necessitates intentional strategic adjustments. Higher education professionals must adopt a unified enrollment and marketing strategy that directly addresses the evolving preferences of Modern Learners. A nonunified approach will not be sufficient; institutions need an integrated strategy that builds brand strength, prioritizes engagement and delivers tailored messaging at critical moments to impact student decision-making

    Build a Strong Brand and Reputation

    A strong institutional brand is essential for long-terms sustainability. More than just a marketing tool, a well-defined brand communicates an institution’s value proposition and helps establish trust with prospective students. A compelling brand differentiates an institution from its competitors, making it easier to attract and retain students. 

    Data from the 2025 Modern Learner report underscores the importance of brand on enrollment decisions, with 58% of students initiating their search by looking for schools first, not programs. Institutions that effectively position themselves as student-centered, outcome-focused and accessible will gain a competitive advantage.  

    Focus on Engagement and Personalization 

    Understanding Modern Learners is only the first step. Engaging them effectively is what is truly critical. Institutions must shift from broad, one-size-fits all marketing approaches to highly personalized engagement strategies. Modern Learners want to feel valued. Their perception of higher education is influenced by their interactions with an institution, from the first website visit to ongoing conversations with admissions personnel. Research from the Modern Learner Report reveals that only one-third of Modern Learners are considered active promoters when it comes to their educational experience. This highlights a significant opportunity to innovate engagement strategies and approach outreach with a student-oriented mindset, as institutions that prioritize personalized communication and meaningful interactions can foster stronger connections, increase student satisfaction, and ultimately drive enrollment and retention.  

    Deliver the Right Message at the Right Time in the Right Place

    Modern Learners move quickly through the decision-making process. Institutions must ensure their messaging is consistent, compelling, and delivered at the right time. A cohesive communication strategy is essential for guiding students through their enrollment journey. 

    Data from the Modern Learner Report illustrates how rapidly prospective students compile a shortlist of schools. Once they identify potential institutions, they make application decisions swiftly. Across both undergraduate and graduate Modern Learners, most students take fewer than three weeks between building a consideration set and making their initial inquiries. Notably, 20% of undergraduate Modern Learners complete this process within just one week. While this trend holds across most Modern Learner segments, traditional undergraduate students tend to take longer, with 34% waiting one to months before making inquiries. Colleges and universities that provide timely, relevant, and persuasive messaging will have a stronger chance of converting interest into enrollment by remaining top of mind.  

    Will Higher Education Survive?

    The Enrollment Cliff is not merely a challenge; it is a catalyst for change. While institutions that fail to adapt may struggle, those that embrace change will find opportunities for growth and innovation.  

    The future of higher education belongs to institutions that recognize the needs of the Modern Learner and evolve accordingly. Those that prioritize flexibility, career alignment, and student-centric engagement will not just endure the Enrollment Cliff—they will turn it into an opportunity for strategic transformation. 

    At EducationDynamics, we aim to be a trusted partner in your journey. By leveraging data-driven insights, personalized marketing and strategic enrollment management, we help you build stronger connections with prospective students, strengthen institutional reputation, and drive sustainable revenue growth. Together, we can navigate these changes and create lasting impact.  

    The Enrollment Cliff is here. The time to act is now. Partner with EducationDynamics to create a unified enrollment and communication strategy that will position your institution for long-term success. 

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  • OPINION: The demographic cliff in higher education should be seen as an opportunity, not a crisis

    OPINION: The demographic cliff in higher education should be seen as an opportunity, not a crisis

    This spring, the number of high school graduates in the United States is expected to hit its peak. Starting in the fall, enrollment will likely enter a period of decline that could last a decade or more.

    This looming “demographic cliff” has been on the minds of education leaders for nearly two decades, dating back to the start of the Great Recession. A raft of college closures over the past five years, exacerbated by the pandemic, has for many observers been the canary in the coal mine.

    In the years to come, schools at all levels — reliant on per-pupil funding for K-12 and on tuition dollars for colleges and universities — will begin feeling the squeeze.

    The question now is whether to treat the cliff as a crisis or an opportunity.

    Related: Interested in innovations in the field of higher education? Subscribe to our free biweekly Higher Education newsletter.

    As they prepare for enrollment shortfalls, superintendents and college presidents are primarily focused on crisis management. With good reason, they’re spending the bulk of their time on the hard short-term decisions of cutting programs and personnel to meet looming budget shortfalls.

    In the precious few years before the situation becomes even more dire, the question is whether schools should just continue bracing for impact — or if they can think bigger in ways that could be transformative not just for the landscape of education, but for the economy more broadly. In my view, they should think about what it would look like to make a moment of crisis a real opportunity.

    Here are some ideas about how that could happen. The first involves blurring the lines between high school and college.

    Colleges today feel immense pressure because there aren’t enough high school graduates. High schools feel similar pressure because there are fewer young people around to enroll each year — not to mention the chronic absenteeism and disengagement that has persisted since the pandemic.

    What if the two worked more closely together — in ways that helped high schools keep students engaged while enabling colleges to reach a broader range of students?

    In many states, this is already happening. At last count, 2.5 million high schoolers took at least one dual-enrollment course from a college or university. But it’s not enough to just create tighter connections between one educational experience and another. Today’s students — and today’s economy — also demand clearer pathways from education to careers. It makes sense to blur the lines between high schools, colleges and work.

    So imagine taking these changes even further — to a world in which instead of jumping from high school to college, students in their late teens entered entirely new institutions that paid them for work-based learning experiences that would lead them to a degree and eventually a career.

    That’s a lofty goal. But it’s the kind of big thinking that both high schools and colleges may need to reinvent themselves for the country’s shifting demographics.

    Colleges have an opportunity right now to double down on creating and expanding job-relevant programs — and to think even bigger about who they serve. That could include expanding opportunities for adult learners who have gained skills outside the classroom through credit for prior learning and competency-based learning. It could also mean speeding up the development of industry-relevant coursework to better align with the needs of the labor market and leaning into short-form training programs to upskill incumbent workers.

    Related: The number of 18-year-olds is about to drop sharply, packing a wallop for colleges — and the economy

    Not every student is ready to invest four years of time and money to earn a bachelor’s degree. But they shouldn’t have to be — and colleges have a chance to expand their offerings in ways that give students more pathways into today’s fast-changing economy and further education if they so choose.

    Part of the problem with the current trajectory from high school to college is that the wrong things get incentivized. Both K-12 schools and colleges get money and support based on the number of students they enroll and (sometimes) the number of people who graduate — not on how well they do at helping people gain the skills to effectively participate in the economy.

    That’s not anyone’s fault. But it often boils down to a matter of policy. Which means that changing policy can create new incentives to tighten the connections between high school, college and work.

    States like Colorado are already taking the lead on this shift. Colorado’s “Big Blur” task force put out a report with recommendations on how to integrate learning and work, including by creating a statewide data system to track the outcomes of educational programs and updating the state’s accountability systems to better reflect “the importance of learners graduating ready for jobs and additional training.”

    If schools and policymakers stay the course in the decade to come, they already know what’s ahead: declining enrollment, decreased funding and the exacerbation of all the challenges that they’ve already begun to face in recent years.

    It’s not the job of the education system to turn the tide of demographic change. But the system does have a unique, and urgent, opportunity to respond to this changing landscape in ways that benefit not only students but the economy as a whole. The question now is whether education leaders and policymakers can seize that opportunity before it’s too late.

    Joel Vargas is vice-president of education practice at Jobs for the Future.

    Contact the opinion editor at [email protected].

    This story about demographic cliff in higher education was produced by The Hechinger Report, a nonprofit, independent news organization focused on inequality and innovation in education. Sign up for Hechinger’s weekly newsletter.

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  • University shouldn’t just postpone cliff edges for care experienced students

    University shouldn’t just postpone cliff edges for care experienced students

    A new report from TASO (Transforming Access and Outcomes for Students) shines a light on the barriers faced by those with experience of children’s social care entering and succeeding in higher education.

    The research points to a stark reality – inequitable access to higher education for care-experienced individuals, but also for a much larger group of people who have experienced children’s social care.

    Part of the problem is that support systems often hinge on rigid definitions like “care leaver,” leaving many students, who face similar challenges, without the help they need.

    When institutional policies fail to account for the diversity of these experiences, students are left to navigate higher education and life beyond it largely on their own.

    The report also suggests that while “care leavers” may have better access to support through Local Authorities (LAs) dedicated widening participation schemes, while those not neatly fitting into this category often fall through the cracks.

    But even if the definitions were fixed and there was more focus on “getting on” as well as getting in, what if higher education’s current offer isn’t enough to transform these students’ lives?

    Understanding diversity

    When the diversity of experience is overlooked, those needing support often miss out or don’t realise they’re entitled to it. Worse, support organisations sometimes view this diversity with suspicion.

    For example, the SLC’s rigid “estranged” or “in contact” policy fails to grasp complex family dynamics. Grey rocking – where abuse victims maintain minimal contact for safety – is ignored, leading to invasive social media monitoring and a profound lack of understanding of the complexities of family breakdowns.

    At the Unite Foundation, we provide free, year-round accommodation for care leavers and estranged students, improving outcomes by offering stability during studies and after graduation. The support gives graduates the breathing room to seek degree-relevant work instead of scrambling for immediate housing and employment.

    We understand that care and estrangement experiences vary widely. Some students enter care due to bereavement, maintain some family contact, or support younger siblings – highlighting how rigid policies fail to capture real-life complexities.

    A more nuanced approach is needed. I recently spoke with a vice chancellor who dismissed targeted support for estranged students, claiming most came from low-income, BTEC backgrounds, so existing support sufficed. But when I explained that many South Asian women – across all social classes – estrange themselves over arranged marriage disputes, he could not point to any existing support provisions that would reasonably address their needs.

    Recognising and addressing the diverse experiences of social care or estrangement is essential for creating a more equitable education system, and the TASO report helps highlight this need.

    Ongoing support

    The report makes clear that gaining access to university for those with experience of social care is only the first challenge – and there is a dire need to strengthen retention strategies.

    The authors reference a proposal previously suggested by the Social Market Foundation, where providers could receive an additional £1,000 for each care leaver they recruit. Tony Moss and I proposed a similar idea on Wonkhe a few years ago, arguing that care leavers should be included in the OfS student premium allocation formula.

    This would require some clarity around definitions and eligibility, but it would significantly help smaller and less financially robust institutions establish support systems for social care experienced students.

    And support schemes are effective. The University of York, for example, offers free accommodation to care-experienced students and has seen applications from such students triple. Similarly, the University of Cardiff acts as a legal guarantor for any student in need of one for a rental contract – without a single case of rent default in the past decade.

    An interesting aspect of the report highlights that the pathways to higher education for young people with experience in children’s social care often vary based on the type and timing of their experiences. In particular, it urges higher-tariff and more “prestigious” institutions to expand access to students from vocational pathways.

    Two years ago, while reviewing the UCAS Next Steps report, I noted that applicants from care-experienced backgrounds are 179 per cent more likely to apply for health and social care courses than their non-care-experienced peers.

    At the time, the Care-Experienced Graduates’ Decision-Making, Choices and Destinations Project offered some insight into this trend, explaining that a history in care often drives care-experienced people to altruistically pursue work such fields.

    Additionally, I suggested that the accessibility of these courses through Access to Higher Education Diplomas and the employment certainty they offer post-graduation could play significant roles.

    And I have also previously argued that care leavers have more direct contact with social workers, which exposes them to career trajectories of adults who influence them – similar to how children of lawyers are 17 times more likely to become lawyers than children of parents in other professions. So it all makes sense.

    Care-experienced people need to see all higher education options as viable – not just the ones their circumstances push them toward. If they gravitate to certain courses due to access, bursaries, community, or career pathways, we should replicate these benefits across other disciplines. TASO’s call for research-intensive universities to support care-experienced students from vocational pathways is a crucial step.

    Postponing the cliff-edge?

    Become’s End the Care Cliff report highlighted how care leavers face an abrupt transition to independence – often much earlier than peers who typically leave home around 24. This “care cliff” leaves many at risk of housing instability and homelessness, with care leavers nine times more likely to become homeless. While TASO’s recommendations help students avoid this cliff during university, what happens when support vanishes at graduation?

    The report noted that higher education can transform lives, but only if care leavers are supported to complete their degrees. But a degree alone doesn’t guarantee stability if old barriers reappear once institutional support ends.

    Social work – a field with a high representation of care-experienced students – suffers from high stress and low staff retention, with average careers lasting just five to nine years. This may reflect not just job stress but also the complex backgrounds of many staff.

    A 2022 UCAS report highlighted how support for care leavers often ends abruptly after graduation. Without ongoing help in early careers, the “care cliff” isn’t eliminated – just postponed.

    The TASO report also highlights the need for secure housing during university breaks, but the real challenge is post-graduation.

    Without family support, social care-experienced graduates often face unstable, high-cost housing that undermines career stability. While many peers live rent-free with parents, care-experienced graduates pay full rent on the same salary – assuming they’re even paid equally.

    Employers may exploit their financial inexperience, and hybrid working only widens this gap – given their living conditions often aren’t conducive to productivity.

    Beyond housing, these graduates face layered disadvantages. They’re more likely to be older, disabled, from minority backgrounds, or managing trauma-related health issues – often overlooked by employers.

    Many are also overrepresented in high-risk groups, including justice involvement and sex work, which can impact career prospects.

    Research then shows that early disadvantages persist into middle age, suggesting a need for long-term support. While the TASO report robustly addresses access and retention in higher education, it misses a crucial element – graduate careers.

    Providers should prepare social care-experienced students for the workforce. But a real focus on “getting on” must also involve pushing both central government and employers to understand their lived realities beyond graduation.

    If HE is serious about changing lives, it needs to work to eliminate the care cliff – not just delay it.

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