Tag: Inflation

  • The grade inflation mutant algorithm, 2026

    The grade inflation mutant algorithm, 2026

    The publication of the Office for Students’ annual data set on degree classifications and grade inflation was initially scheduled for October of last year.

    It was delayed until now to enable further data checking – a pause that caused many data-literate observers to speculate that perhaps the venerable and much-criticised OfS algorithm (which compares the classification of degrees awarded to the perfect year that was 2010-11; controlling for age, entry qualifications, and subject of study only) might be in for an overhaul.

    This algorithm has generated results in the past that suggests that more than half of the classifications actually awarded to undergraduates were “unexplained” – the current number is just under 40 per cent.

    So, either four in ten degrees awarded in UK higher education are problematic – or a very simplistic algorithm isn’t actually very good and needs fixing.

    Occam’s razor

    So we thought OfS would take the extra weeks to rethink the algorithm. This has not happened.

    Instead, we get a more nuanced take on what is visible in this collection, which is worth quoting in full:

    The term ‘unexplained’ in this context means that changes in the characteristics of the graduating cohort included in our modelling cannot explain statistically the changes in attainment over the period.

    We are not seeking to understand what other factors might be driving the observed changes. We acknowledge that elements such as improvements in teaching quality could account for them. Our modelling cannot account for increases in degree awarding as a result of changes made in response to the pandemic. Neither can it account for entry requirements such as performance in an audition or the submission of a portfolio, as entry qualifications are limited to standard A-levels, BTECs and direct equivalents.

    Similarly, it cannot account for changes in entry qualifications as a result of the teacher-assessed grading necessitated during the pandemic. For this reason, we also classify these changes as ‘unexplained’.

    In reading this very welcome clarification you may want to think back to November’s OfS intervention on these topics. After investigating three providers (starting in 2022) England’s regulator appeared to decide that the problem was degree algorithms.

    A degree algorithm is the mechanism used by providers to calculate degree classifications from a set of module marks achieved by a student during their undergraduate study. This is a particularly British problem – in most systems globally a grade point average backed by a full transcript is far more important than any classification offered.

    In the three investigations OfS conducted it identified two particular aspect of degree algorithms – awarding a student the best result from multiple algorithms, and discounting credit with the lowest marks – that it was unsure were compatible with the requirements of registration condition B4 (which deals, in part with the “credibility” of degrees awarded).

    This was a new departure for a regulator that had previously been content to use words like “unexplained” to cast suspicion on academic standards more generally. The fact that it found three providers at risk of breaching B4 despite the absence of any current practice that would be in breach of B4 merely served as an indication that the game has changed.

    The hardest degree

    We get the usual data release alongside the report. Here’s a plot showing the percentage point difference between the actual grades awarded and the grades modelled by the algorithm (the so-called “unexplained” awards) – with the number of graduates shown by the thin grey lines. Filters allow you to look just at first class honours or first and upper second degrees, choose the year you are interested in (the most recent, 2023-24, is the default), and to choose a minimum number of graduates at a provider for display (the default is 500).

    Mousing over one of these marks shows, in the chart at the bottom – the actual (orange) awards plotted alongside the modelled (blue) awards.

    [Full screen]

    Top of the charts for “unexplained” first and upper second awards we find Goldsmiths, East London, and Bradford. With the exception of Goldsmiths’ all recorded a slight drop in the actual (observed) award of undergraduate degrees with these classifications each year.

    Like many providers at the top end of this chart, these institutions take pride in serving under-represented and non-traditional applicants to higher education – and they are very good at what they do. Goldsmiths’ is a large arts-focused institution, with admissions determined by portfolio in many cases. East London and Bradford are vocationally-focused providers with strong employer links, serving a local non-traditional population.

    East London and Bradford award a far lower proportion of first class and upper second degrees than – for example – Durham, Bath, or Bristol. In any meaningful, student-facing, interpretation of this phenomenon it is “easier” to get a good degree at a selective provider like that than at one more focused on serving the whole community. The hardest university to get a good degree at is Buckinghamshire New University – less than half of those who completed their course in 2023-24 achieved a first or upper second.

    It’s perhaps easier to see this phenomenon on a scatter plot showing both observed and modelled awards.

    [Full screen]

    There is a neat split by provider type – every Russell Group university awards more than 80 per cent of graduates a first or upper second, while only a handful (Bath, Loughborough, Lancaster, Arts, Goldsmiths’, Northumbria) do. Is that fair?

    Fairness

    The question for anyone concerned with academic standards is whether these provider level differentials are fair. The OfS algorithm – as noted above – uses age, prior attainment, and subject as study as explicatory factors. It’s worth dealing with each in turn.

    • OfS reckons that students with less than stellar A levels are less likely to get good degrees than those with AAA or above– so providers who recruit other kinds of learner will be penalised by the algorithm no matter how good they are at treating non-traditional learners.
    • Age doesn’t quite work how you might expect – mature students are very slightly more likely to get a first or an upper second than the traditional 18 year old entry cohort.
    • And humanities or social sciences subjects are judged to be harder to get a first in than physical sciences: so if you have (say) a huge law school and not many chemists you will struggle with the output of this algorithm.

    [Full screen]

    I’d love to show you the standard errors and p-values that offer reassurance on the quality of this information here, but I understand from OfS that there was an issue with calculating them correctly: the figures have now been removed from the annex. The team are satisfied that the coefficients are accurate for what that’s worth, but if you end up being investigated as a result of this data I would be asking some questions here.

    OfS has arrived at these insights through analysis of previous years of data – and this is a valid thing for them to have done. The failure to predict so much of what has actually happened suggests to me that other assumptions should be added to the model. It used to have disability, ethnicity, sex, and TUNDRA – these were axed from the model in 2023 ostensibly because they didn’t have much explanatory value.

    There is a commendable clarity in the technical annex that any gap between the model and reality is because of “a result of unobserved effects between academic years that have not been accounted for and have not been included as explanatory variables in the model”. It is good to see language like that up top too, as a counterbalance to the rather accusatory term “unexplained”.

    What of it?

    We wrote about the three investigations that have thus far come about as a result of this data when we got the reports published last year. What was notable from those judgements was that OfS did not find any current evidence of grade inflation at any of the three providers involved, though at two of the three they did find a historic concern about degree algorithm that had been in place prior to the existence of the OfS and was addressed speedily when it became apparent that it was causing problems.

    I am going to stick my neck out and say that there are likely to be no providers that are carrying out deliberate and systematic grade inflation as a matter of policy. If OfS feels that there are things providers are innocently doing that may result in grades being less than reliable what it needs to do is provide causal and statistical evidence that this is the case – and it will find this easier if it works with providers in the spirit of enhancement and continuous improvement rather than playing to the headlines.

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  • Understanding how inflation affects teacher well-being and career decisions

    Understanding how inflation affects teacher well-being and career decisions

    Key points:

    In recent years, the teaching profession has faced unprecedented challenges, with inflation emerging as a significant factor affecting educators’ professional lives and career choices. This in-depth examination delves into the complex interplay between escalating inflation rates and the self-efficacy of educators–their conviction in their capacity to proficiently execute their pedagogical responsibilities and attain the desired instructional outcomes within the classroom environment.

    The impact of inflation on teachers’ financial stability has become increasingly evident, with many educators experiencing a substantial decline in their “real wages.” While nominal salaries remain relatively stagnant, the purchasing power of teachers’ incomes continues to erode as the cost of living rises. This economic pressure has created a concerning dynamic where educators, despite their professional dedication, find themselves struggling to maintain their standard of living and meet basic financial obligations.

    A particularly troubling trend has emerged in which teachers are increasingly forced to seek secondary employment to supplement their primary income. Recent surveys indicate that approximately 20 percent of teachers now hold second jobs during the academic year, with this percentage rising to nearly 30 percent during summer months. This necessity to work multiple jobs can lead to physical and mental exhaustion, potentially compromising teachers’ ability to maintain the high levels of energy and engagement required for effective classroom instruction.

    The phenomenon of “moonlighting” among educators has far-reaching implications for teacher self-efficacy. When teachers must divide their attention and energy between multiple jobs, their capacity to prepare engaging lessons, grade assignments thoroughly, and provide individualized student support may be diminished. This situation often creates a cycle where reduced performance leads to decreased self-confidence, potentially affecting both teaching quality and student outcomes.

    Financial stress has also been linked to increased levels of anxiety and burnout among teachers, directly impacting their perceived self-efficacy. Studies have shown that educators experiencing financial strain are more likely to report lower levels of job satisfaction and decreased confidence in their ability to meet professional expectations. This psychological burden can manifest in reduced classroom effectiveness and diminished student engagement.

    Perhaps most concerning is the growing trend of highly qualified educators leaving the profession entirely for better-paying opportunities in other sectors. This “brain drain” from education represents a significant loss of experienced professionals who have developed valuable teaching expertise. The exodus of talented educators not only affects current students but also reduces the pool of mentor teachers available to guide and support newer colleagues, potentially impacting the professional development of future educators.

    The correlation between inflation and teacher attrition rates has become increasingly apparent, with economic factors cited as a primary reason for leaving the profession. Research indicates that districts in areas with higher costs of living and significant inflation rates experience greater difficulty in both recruiting and retaining qualified teachers. This challenge is particularly acute in urban areas where housing costs and other living expenses have outpaced teacher salary increases.

    Corporate sectors, technology companies, and consulting firms have become attractive alternatives for educators seeking better compensation and work-life balance. These career transitions often offer significantly higher salaries, better benefits packages, and more sustainable working hours. The skills that make effective teachers, such as communication, organization, and problem-solving, are highly valued in these alternative career paths, making the transition both feasible and increasingly common.

    The cumulative effect of these factors presents a serious challenge to the education system’s sustainability. As experienced teachers leave the profession and prospective educators choose alternative career paths, schools face increasing difficulty in maintaining educational quality and consistency. This situation calls for systematic changes in how we value and compensate educators, recognizing that teacher self-efficacy is intrinsically linked to their financial security and professional well-being.

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  • Why do people worry about inflation?

    Why do people worry about inflation?

    That’s why central banks have gone to extraordinary lengths in the past decade to banish the specter of deflation. They’ve succeeded. Indeed, stock markets have been rattled by evidence that inflation is stirring in the United States, which might prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more rapidly than previously thought.

    (On Wednesday, the U.S. government reported that consumer prices rose by 0.5 percent in January, more than expected. “Core” prices excluding volatile food and energy costs marked the biggest monthly gain in a year.)

    But the chances of inflation getting out of control are small.

    First, companies operate globally, so if manufacturing costs rise too high in the United States, they will shift production to cheaper locations overseas.

    Second, there is still slack in the U.S. jobs market because many people who gave up looking for work after the crisis could be lured back into employment, capping wages.

    Third, there is no reason to believe the Fed — or financial markets for that matter — would allow the money supply to spiral out of control.

    The United States is no Venezuela.

    Prices rise and fall all the time in response to factors such as changing consumer tastes and technological innovation. Medical care costs a lot more than in the past, computers a lot less. But a generalized rise in prices across the economy — which is the definition of inflation — is possible only if a country’s central bank prints too much money.

    That’s what’s happened in Venezuela, where the money supply has increased by 4,000 percent in the past two years. The result is hyperinflation, forecast by the International Monetary Fund to reach 13,000 percent this year. Goldilocks’s oatmeal is nearly doubling in price every month. Poverty is rife because wages lag price rises. The economy is on its knees.

    The United States is no Venezuela. Evidence of a pick-up in wages is good news in fact, considering that workers have been taking home less and less of the economic pie in recent years, while the suppliers of capital have benefited handsomely.

    It’s possible that the recently enacted package of U.S. tax cuts and spending increases will cause the economy to run a bit too hot, pushing up prices a bit. But of the many problems facing the U.S. economy, runaway inflation is not one of them.

    In 1981, then Fed Chairman Paul Volcker had to raise short-term U.S. interest rates to 20 percent to crush inflation. History will not need to repeat itself.

    Questions to consider:

    1. What “ripple effect” could a rise in consumer prices cause?

    2. How can inflation be good?

    3. When prices go up significantly, what might you or your family not buy?

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  • Eliminating grade inflation isn’t as easy as ABC

    Eliminating grade inflation isn’t as easy as ABC

    A perfect grade point average isn’t what it used to be. As grade inflation continues worldwide, more students are earning top marks, but it isn’t always deserved. Critics argue that inflated grades make it harder to distinguish truly exceptional students, while supporters say they reduce stress and improve confidence. 

    From high schools in the United States to universities in Europe, the debate over grade inflation is shaping education systems and college admissions. But is this trend helping students succeed, or is it setting them up for failure?

    Grade inflation is the trend of rising student grades over time without a corresponding increase in academic achievement, often making higher grades less reflective of actual learning or ability. 

    High school is meant to prepare students for higher education, but with grade inflation, many students feel unprepared. 

    Take high school senior Ruby Schwelm. “As a student who has dealt with inflation, I’ve noticed I don’t receive grades and feedback that reflect my actual understanding of the content,” Schwelm said. “I feel like I’m just going through the motions of my courses, completing assignments without really engaging with the material. This makes it hard to track progress, see where I need improvement and feel prepared for college.”

    The rising GPA

    According to a study by ACT, a non-profit organization that runs one of two standardized tests used in the United States used for college admissions, the average adjusted grade point average (GPA) of students in the United States has risen from 3.17 in 2010 to 3.36 in 2021. 

    The report said that grade inflation “calls into question the degree to which we should rely on grades to measure academic achievement or predict future grades.” This shift challenges the typical role of grades as a reliable measure of knowledge, starting a debate over whether they still hold value in measuring students’ abilities.  

    Many educators believe that the shift in grading has led to a lack of rigor and academic accountability. Josh Hsu, a high school English teacher at the Tatnall School in Wilmington, Delaware where I go to high school, said that many students now equate a C with failure, despite it being historically recognized as an average grade.

    “There seems to be a threshold of how low grades will go, and that bar gets pushed higher and higher,” Hsu said.

    This trend has caused concern among educators who feel that the traditional grading system no longer differentiates students based on their academic performance. 

    “What does an A mean if everybody has an A, right?” Hsu said. 

    The psychological effects of grade inflation

    Proponents of grade inflation argue that it helps students maintain self-confidence and reduces academic stress. 

    Sara Gartland, a high school math teacher at the Tatnall School and adjunct professor at the University of Delaware School of Education, said that “there’s a lot of tension in what a grade is.” 

    She worries that students today see grades as a measure of their worth rather than as a tool for learning. Grades should function as a feedback loop between teachers and students rather than a rigid measure of success, Gartland said. 

    She also emphasized the importance of second chances. “I tend to see that really what students are looking for is, ‘Do I have a second chance if today is not my best day?’,” she said. 

    This perspective aligns with educational philosophies that prioritize mastery over memorization. Many teachers now allow students the opportunity to make corrections and retake assessments to make sure that students truly understand the material, which can also lift the burden of test stress off of students. 

    Elevated grades and equity

    While grade inflation is happening across the country, there have been concerns over whether grade inflation is proportionally impacting students of different incomes and communities. 

    Hsu said that parents of students in private schools often expect their children to earn high grades to get into a top college in return for the price of tuition. While this belief may lead people to assume that wealthier students have proportionately higher grades than lower-income students, this actually is not the case. 

    The ACT’s study shows that the average GPA of students in a household with an income of under $36,000 a year has grown much faster than the GPA of students in a household with an income of $100,000 from 2012 to 2021. This could be due to teachers inadvertently trying to give a break to students from low-income families to try and level the playing field. 

    Gartland argues that teachers should provide students with the tools they need for success and take into consideration things that may impact a student’s performance outside of the classroom. 

    “That [grade on a test] doesn’t necessarily take into consideration your drive to school that day, whether or not you forgot your lunch that day, or let’s say you had a particularly exciting life event or a particularly upsetting life event, and you didn’t get to spend the amount of time studying that other students did, all sorts of other things,” she said. 

    With this mindset in education, students are being treated with equity, allowing them the opportunity to experience the same academic success, even if there are barriers in their way. 

    Global patterns in how students are graded

    While the issue of grade inflation is often discussed in the context of schools in the United States, grade inflation is a global issue. A 2024 study, by researchers at the College of New Jersey, found that many countries, including the United Kingdom, Germany and Canada have all experienced rising average grades over time. 

    However, the extent of grade inflation varies from country to country. Australia, for example, maintains relatively strict grading standards through the use of relative grading and limited reliance on student achievement.

    This study also showed that there are many differences in grading practices from region to region. In the United States, professors were significantly more likely to use curved grading, a practice strongly associated with grade inflation. 

    In contrast, educators in Europe and the South Pacific gave lower average grades and curved fewer grades, suggesting a more conservative approach to grading. Asian countries showed grading patterns similar to the United States, with higher usage of grade curves and slightly elevated grade averages.

    These disparities have real implications. Grade inflation complicates international admissions, making it harder to fairly compare students from different educational systems. 

    It can also distort hiring practices. The international study on grade inflation found that in Sweden, students from schools with inflated grades were shown to earn up to 5% more than peers with equivalent abilities. Ultimately, when grades become inflated, they lose their value as an objective measure of performance, creating global challenges in education, employment, and equity. 

    A shift in college admissions 

    As I went through the process of applying to college, I learned from my college counselors how grade inflation has affected the college admissions process. As grade inflation rises, colleges and employers are shifting their focus away from GPAs and toward other indications of student potential. Admissions officers are increasingly looking at extracurricular activities, personal essays and recommendation letters to evaluate applicants.

    According to a report by the group FairTest, which works for equity in educational assessments, standardized tests, which once served as a counterbalance to inflated grades, are also becoming optional at many colleges and universities, further complicating the process of evaluating students.

    Hsu said he worries that without clear academic standards, the education system could lose its credibility. “If you don’t have a set of standards, then it just becomes the Wild West, and then you have everyone getting A’s and B’s and you have students with GPAs that they didn’t earn,” he said.

    Employers, too, are placing greater emphasis on internships and real-world experience rather than assuming high grades equate to a strong work ethic and mastery of material. 

    With the recent trends of grade inflation, we can expect the average GPAs of students across the country to continue to rise. Hsu worries some students have become lazier in recent years. This raises concerns about how this will impact the future of education and if students will be prepared for life post-graduation.

    “Everyone wants instant gratification now,” Hsu said. “They don’t want to work at things as hard because if they have challenges, they’re not willing to stumble through those challenges or fight through them.”

    Questions to consider:

    • What is meant by grade inflation?

    • How can student achievement be measured without letter or number grades?

    • Do you think that getting an A on an assignment should be difficult? Why?

     

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  • Higher Education Pay Increases in 2023 Exceeded Inflation for the First Time Since the Pandemic – CUPA-HR

    Higher Education Pay Increases in 2023 Exceeded Inflation for the First Time Since the Pandemic – CUPA-HR

    by CUPA-HR | March 27, 2024

    New research from CUPA-HR has found that median pay increases for most higher education employees in 2023-24 continued the upward trend seen last year (and exceeded the inflation rate for the first time since 2019-20). However, the findings also show that most higher ed employees are still being paid less than they were in 2019-20 in inflation-adjusted dollars.

    The largest gap between pre-pandemic inflation-adjusted salaries and current salaries is for tenure-track faculty (earning 9.7% less), followed by non-tenure-track teaching faculty (earning 8.2% less). The smallest gap is for staff (earning only 0.3% less).

    Other key findings from an analysis of CUPA-HR’s higher ed workforce salary survey data from 2016-17 to 2023-24 include:

    • Non-tenure-track teaching faculty received their highest raise in the past eight years.
    • Staff (generally non-exempt employees) received the highest increase in pay in comparison to other employee types. This was true last year as well.
    • Tenure-track faculty continued to receive the lowest pay increases (and were the only group of employees whose raise did not surpass inflation).

    Across higher ed, employees are still being paid less than they were in 2019-20 (pre-pandemic) in inflation-adjusted dollars. Tenure-track faculty are the group with the largest gap between median salaries in 2019-20 adjusted to 2023-24 dollars and actual median salaries in 2023-24, earning 9.7% less. This is followed by non-tenure-track teaching faculty (earning 8.2% less). The smallest gap is for staff (earning only 0.3% less).

    High inflation has only exacerbated the gaps in pay increases faculty (particularly tenure-track faculty) experience in relation to other higher ed employees. Further, even though most higher ed employee groups received raises that beat inflation in 2023-24, these raises did not reverse the erosion of higher ed employee purchasing power that has been occurring since 2019-20.

    Explore this data and more in CUPA-HR’s newest interactive graphic.

    CUPA-HR Research

    CUPA-HR is the recognized authority on compensation surveys for higher education, with its workforce surveys designed by higher ed HR professionals for higher ed HR professionals and other campus leaders.



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  • Pay Increases for Higher Ed Employees Sharply Improve, But Still Fall Short of Inflation Rate – CUPA-HR

    Pay Increases for Higher Ed Employees Sharply Improve, But Still Fall Short of Inflation Rate – CUPA-HR

    by CUPA-HR | April 3, 2023

    New research from CUPA-HR has found that although employees across the higher education workforce saw the most substantial pay raises in 2022-23 than in the past several years, they are still being paid less than they were in 2019-20 in inflation-adjusted dollars.

    Some of the key findings from an analysis of CUPA-HR’s higher ed workforce salary survey data from 2016 to 2023:

    • This academic year, raises for higher ed employees were the largest seen in the past seven years, and all position types (administrators, professionals, staff and faculty) received an increase of at least 1.11 percentage points compared to the previous year.
    • Tenure-track and non-tenure-track teaching faculty continue to receive the smallest pay increases of any higher ed employee category. In 2022-23, tenure-track faculty saw a median pay increase of 2.9 percent and non-tenure-track faculty saw an increase of 3.2 percent. Tenure-track faculty salary increases have not kept pace with inflation since at least 2015, and non-tenure-track salary increases last met or exceeded inflation in 2016-17, meaning full-time faculty in general continue to be paid less every year in inflation-adjusted dollars.
    • Staff, which is typically the lowest-paid category of higher ed employees, saw the biggest raises this academic year at 5.3 percent (up from 2.9 percent in 2021-22).

    Explore this data and more in CUPA-HR’s newest interactive graphic.

    CUPA-HR Research

    CUPA-HR is the recognized authority on compensation surveys for higher education, with its workforce surveys designed by higher ed HR professionals for higher ed HR professionals and other campus leaders. CUPA-HR has been collecting data on the higher ed workforce for more than 50 years, and we maintain one of the largest workforce databases in existence. CUPA-HR also publishes numerous research publications and interactive graphics highlighting trends and issues around higher ed workforce planning, pay equity, representation of women and racial/ethnic minorities and more. Learn more about CUPA-HR research.



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  • Dr. Jennifer T. Edwards: A Texas Professor Focused on Artificial Intelligence, Health, and Education: Learning How to Curb Inflation with a Garden

    Dr. Jennifer T. Edwards: A Texas Professor Focused on Artificial Intelligence, Health, and Education: Learning How to Curb Inflation with a Garden

    I love gardening. Whether my gardening takes place in a container, in an urban area, or in a rural area, I am all about it! This year, my daughter decided that she wanted to become a mini-gardener as well.

    As a result, we are growing…tomatoes, peppers, eggplant, watermelon, and lettuce. I teach her to watch the prices as they continue to increase. My daughter and I talk about innovative ways to counteract the increasing prices. Our strategy is gardening!

    I am part of a wealth of gardening groups. My favorites are “Black Girls Garden” and Black girl container gardening groups on Facebook. These groups give me inspiration and ideas to garden for my family and for the community. One thing that I like the most is the emphasis on sharing seeds and supporting one another. I also work with our community garden group as well.

    This summer, I have been very fortunate to learn even more gardening skills from the local Agrilife Extension agent in Panola County, Clarissa Moon. She is an excellent teacher and she provides so much educational outreach for the community.

    Another resource that I absolutely love is the USDA, which has great resources for gardening as well. I subscribe to their blog, “Farmers.gov Blog” and it has some incredible tips for gardening. It also features several other sections on their website that  feature articles. These categories are:

    Of course, my favorite is Farm Life! I love the “Friday’s on the Farm” series.

    Check them out! What is your favorite part?

    Thanks for visiting! 

    Sincerely,

    Dr. Jennifer T. Edwards
    Professor of Communication

    Executive Director of the Texas Social Media Research Institute & Rural Communication Institute

    ***

    Check out my book – Retaining College Students Using Technology: A Guidebook for Student Affairs and Academic Affairs Professionals.

    Remember to order copies for your team as well!

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