Tag: OfS

  • OfS continues to sound the alarm on the financial sustainability of English higher education

    OfS continues to sound the alarm on the financial sustainability of English higher education

    For the third year in a row, the English higher education sector’s collective financial performance is in decline.

    That is the conclusion of the latest annual assessment of the sector’s financial sustainability from the Office for Students (OfS), based on finance returns for 2023-24.

    Overall, after stiff warnings this time last year about the risks of system-wide provider deficits if projected student number growth failed to materialise, OfS says that many providers are taking steps to manage their finances, by reducing costs and downgrading recruitment growth projections. It remains unlikely, says OfS, that a large provider will become insolvent in the coming financial year.

    But 43 per cent of providers are forecasting a deficit for the current financial year 2024–25, and there is an overall decline in overall surplus and liquidity – albeit with the expectation of growth in the years ahead. While larger teaching-intensive and medium sized providers were more likely to report a deficit, there is also quite a lot of variation between providers in different groups – meaning that institution type is not a reliable guide to financial circumstances.

    Recruitment woes

    Student recruitment is the most material driver of financial pressure, specifically, a home and international student market that appears insufficient to fill the number of places institutions aspire to offer. The broad trend of institutions forecasting student number growth in hopes of offsetting rising costs – including national insurance and pension contributions – makes it unlikely that all will achieve their ambitions. There’s evidence that the sector has scaled back its expectations, with aggregate forecast growth until 2027–28 lower than previous forecasts. But OfS warns that the aggregate estimate of an increase of 26 per cent in UK entrants and 19.5 per cent in non-UK entrants between 2023–24 and 2027–28 remains too optimistic.

    Questioned further on this phenomenon, OfS Director of Regulation Philippa Pickford noted that there is significant variation in forecasts between different providers, and that given the wider volatility in student recruitment it can be really quite difficult to project future numbers. The important thing, she stressed, is that providers plan for a range of possible scenarios, and have a mitigation plan in place if projections are not achieved. She added that OfS is considering whether it might give more information to providers upfront about the range of scenarios it expects to see evidence of having been considered.

    Storing up trouble

    While the focus of the financial sustainability is always going to be on the institutional failure scenario, arguably an equally significant concern is the accumulation of underlying structural weaknesses caused by year-on-year financial pressures. OfS identifies risks around deferral of estates maintenance, suspension of planned physical or digital infrastructure investments, and a significant increase in subcontractual (franchising) arrangements that require robust governance.

    All this is manifesting in some low-key emergency finance measures such as relying on lending to support operating cashflow where there is low liquidity at points in the year, selling assets, renegotiation of terms of covenants with lenders, or seeking injections of cash from donors, benefactors or principal shareholders. Generally, and understandably, the finance lending terms available to the sector are much more limited than they have been in the past and the cost of borrowing has risen. The general increases in uncertainty are manifest in the increased work auditors are doing to be able to confirm that institutions remain a “going concern.” Such measures can address short-term financial challenges but in most cases they are not a viable long term strategy for sustainability.

    OfS reiterates the message that providers are obligated to be financially sustainable while delivering a high quality student learning experience and following through on all commitments made to students – but it’s clear that frontline services are in the frame for cuts and/or that there is a limit to the ability to reduce day-to-day spending or close courses even when they are loss-making if there is likely to be an impact on institutional mission and reputation. Discussions between OfS and directors of finance point to a range of wider challenges around increased need for student support, the difficulty of recruiting and retaining staff, the increasing costs of conducting research, and shifts in the student accommodation rental market. Some even pointed to the cost of investment in AI-detection software.

    The future is murky

    The bigger picture points to long term (albeit unpredictable) shifts in the underlying financial model for HE. Philippa Pickford’s view is that institutions may need to shift from taking a short-term view of financial risks to a longer-term horizon, and will need to grapple with what a sustainable long term future for the institution looks like if the market looks different from what they have been used to. Deferral of capital investment, for example, may keep things going for a year or two but it can’t be put off indefinitely. There’s a hint in the report that some institutions may need to invest in greater skills, expertise and capacity to understand and navigate this complicated financial territory – and OfS is taking an increased interest in multi-year trends in financial performance, estates data and capital investment horizons in its discussions with providers.

    The situation remains, however, that OfS is primarily empowered to monitor, discuss, convene and, if necessary, issue directives relating to student protection. Activity of this nature has ramped up considerably in the past year, but financial sustainability remains, at base, individual providers’ responsibility – and system-level intervention on things like changing patterns of provision, or management of the wider impact of institutional insolvency, nobody in particular’s. Government is, of course, aware of the problem but has not yet given a steer on whether its upcoming HE reform measures, expected to be published in the summer after the spending review, will grasp the nettle in delivering the support for transformation the sector hopes to see.

    OfS has now said that it is talking to government to put forward the view that there should be a special administration regime for higher education. This signals that while the immediate risks of institutional closure or “disorderly market exit” are low, the pressures on a small number of institutions remain considerable. On the assumption of little or very modest changes in the funding model in the upcoming spending review, and ongoing competitive pressures, there will almost inevitably be losers.

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  • Communicate, repeat and compensate – OfS issues principles over industrial action

    Communicate, repeat and compensate – OfS issues principles over industrial action

    University and College Union (UCU) staged a national marking and assessment boycott (MAB) – delaying graduations, job starts, and transitions to postgraduate study.

    UCU members took the action to tackle disputes including headline pay, gender and minority ethnic pay gaps, staff workload and the casualisation across the sector.

    Whenever there’s industrial action, the hope in Carlow St is that students will see the bigger picture – but this time around, at least for some students in some universities, the impact was significant. At the time, UCU estimated that 30,000 students were unable to graduate on time or were affected in some other way.

    In the aftermath, the Commons Education Committee held a mini inquiry to investigate the impact – it wrote to the then Conservative government to raise concerns about the lack of data, the role of the Office for Students (OfS) and the lack of clarity over students’ rights, and the eventual (post election) reply was predictably weak.

    Now, two years on, OfS has published research that was commissioned to develop an understanding of what the impacts were from a student perspective – along with guidance for institutions on protecting the interests of students during industrial action, and a webinar event planned for mid-May on the regulator’s expectations on how providers should support students before, during and after industrial action.

    OfS first ran a text-based focus group via YouGov in July 2024 that discussed short- and long-term impacts, what information they got from their institutions, and how those institutions handled the situation. A quantitative survey followed that gathered 763 responses (279 undergrads, 284 postgrads, and 200 graduates) that had been studying at impacted institutions during the boycott. You’d not be diving into demographic splits on that sample size.

    The polling drilled into how the industrial action affected their academic lives – immediately and over time – along with the comms they received from their universities, and how they viewed their rights as students.

    On the top line

    In a “topline” results report and associated student insights brief, we learn that the industrial action caused delayed or unmarked coursework (53 per cent) and exams (46 per cent), reduced lecture time (68 per cent), and decreased contact with staff.

    Most impacted students reported negative effects on academic work quality (49 per cent) and grades (42 per cent). The MAB’s psychological impact was significant – with 41 per cent reporting increased stress, 32 per cent experiencing poorer mental health, and 15-18 per cent noting negative effects on their social lives.

    One student is quoted as follows:

    I was waiting for the result of a resit that the progression of my masters’ depended upon but it was delayed so much I had to pay for the next module and would not get the results until halfway through.

    International students faced particular challenges, with visa uncertainties arising from delayed results and qualifications. Some students couldn’t attend graduation ceremonies because their results came too late:

    I didn’t manage to get graduation tickets in time due to how late results were, so I didn’t have a graduation ceremony.

    Communication varied considerably across institutions – with most updates coming through emails (65 per cent) rather than during lectures (22 per cent). Students rated information from individual lecturers (78 per cent satisfaction) more highly than university-wide communications (64 per cent satisfaction).

    Many students in the focus group:

    …were not told which of their modules would be affected, or when they would get their marks and feedback.

    OfS says that the institutional response was inconsistent across the higher education sector. Students directly affected by the MAB expressed significantly higher dissatisfaction (54 per cent) with their university’s handling of the situation compared to unaffected students (18 per cent). Just 46 per cent of affected students received alternatives or compensation, primarily through “no detriment” policies adapted from those developed during the Covid era (26 per cent).

    Financial compensation and rights awareness was low – with only 30 per cent knowing they could request it, and a mere 9 per cent successfully receiving any. The boycott also negatively impacted perceptions of education quality (38 per cent reporting a decrease) and value for money (41 per cent reporting a decrease), with one student noting:

    I ended up with a [postgraduate diploma] instead of my MSc, and I came out with a merit instead of a distinction.

    The brief does note that universities employed various mitigation strategies, including awarding interim degree classifications, guaranteeing minimum classifications, improving mental health support, reallocating marking responsibilities, and engaging with employers to request flexibility for affected graduates.

    Were they OK? Some students felt their institutions responded well, others reported that the experience contributed to decisions not to pursue further studies or work in higher education, with 42 per cent reporting decreased trust in their universities.

    Behind the screams

    Much of that won’t come as a surprise – although the sheer scale of the suggested impacts, as well as their depth and breadth on individual students (esp rer mental health and international students) ought to invigorate debates about the morality of the tactic, and how universities handled it to limit legal or financial exposure.

    Arguably of more interest is the letter and “regulatory statement” that accompanies the publication from John Blake, Director for Fair Access and Participation.

    Re-stressing that it’s not OfS’ role to intervene in labour disputes, Blake expresses concern about how strikes and the MAB disrupted students’ academic experiences, notes inconsistencies in institutional responses, sets out an aim to establish clearer expectations for fair treatment for all students in any similar future scenarios.

    And there’s a fascinating section on compensation:

    We want to be clear that we don’t see compensation as a substitute for the holistic experience of intellectual, professional and personal development that a student should expect from their higher education. Institutions should continue to focus their efforts during industrial action on delivering the education that students expect. The inclusion of an expectation in relation to compensation does, though, reflect the rights students have under the Consumer Rights Act 2015.

    Given that many students got neither, the clear implication is that a large number of students should have received both.

    Six principles

    The core of the guidance letter then manifests in six principles:

    1. Providers must remove contractual terms that inappropriately limit liability to students during staff industrial action or other circumstances within the provider’s control, as these breach consumer protection law.
    2. Effective contingency plans must be developed to minimise disruption to students during industrial action, ensuring plans are actionable, timely, and protect qualification integrity.
    3. When implementing contingency plans, providers should prioritise education delivery by: first avoiding impacts on students; if not possible, making minimal changes; and if necessary, providing timely repeat performance of missed teaching or assessment.
    4. Fair compensation must be paid when contingency plans fail to deliver promised aspects of student experience, particularly for missed teaching without timely replacement, delayed assessment marking, or delayed progression decisions affecting jobs or visa status.
    5. Clear communication with students is essential, including transparent information about rescheduled activities or compensation, with proactive identification of eligible students rather than requiring them to submit claims.
    6. Providers must submit reportable events about industrial action to the Office for Students (OfS) in accordance with established regulatory requirements.

    It’s an interesting list. The first one on the inclusion of industrial action in so-called “force majeure” clauses in student contracts – which limit liability for events that are outside of the predictability or control of of providers – is a long-running passive-aggressive row between the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) and OfS on one side, and providers on the other.

    OfS has previously published a referral to National Trading Standards involving the University of Manchester’s contract – but my spreadsheet suggests that there’s a large number of providers that either haven’t seen that, or are digging in for a battle over it.

    That may be partly because those sorts of clauses – and CMA’s advice on them (which OfS requires providers to pay “due regard to”) – are a key point of dispute in the ongoing Student Group Claim, the UCL portion of which won’t get to court until early 2026.

    From a student point of view, if those clauses shouldn’t exist, the snail’s pace of enforcement on this is as baffling as it is frustrating.

    There won’t be many providers that weren’t developing contingency plans, notwithstanding that they can always be improved – and the one-two-three-four punch of avoid, adjust, repeat or compensate reflects (and translates) the position under consumer law.

    Of course some will argue that a legal duty to undertake any/all of those steps under consumer law depends on those force majeure clauses not existing or being unlawful – and as it stands there’s a major silent standoff that’s unhelpful.

    Even if you just look at compensation, the survey fails to differentiate between compensation paid for breach of contract, and “goodwill” payments where no such breach has been accepted by providers. As far as I’m aware, the former was vanishingly rare.

    The other issue, of course, is with punch three of four – where university managements satisfy themselves that once a dispute is over, teaching or support is rescheduled “because we told them to”, despite the fact that most heads of department find it hard to actually implement those instructions with UCU members.

    The “proactive identification of eligible students” for “repeat performance” or compensation is interesting too – especially over the latter, providers have long relied on students having to make complaints in order to get redress. This not only depends on the breach of contract or not issue being resolved, it also raises questions for universities’ legal advisors and insurers about the relative risks of doing as John Blake says, or waiting for students to raise concerns.

    But as well as all of that, there’s three things we ought to be surprised not to see.

    What’s missing?

    For a set of documents seeped in the translation of consumer protection to a higher education setting, there’s nothing on the extent to which any alternative arrangements in a MAB – especially alternative arrangements over marking – should still be carried out with reasonable skill and care. Academic judgement can’t be challenged, but only if that judgement has been carried out in the way we might expect it to be by people who know their onions. That was a major issue in the dispute for plenty of students, even if it wasn’t a big issue in the polling.

    The second is the lack of answer to the questions raised both in the polling and by the Commons Education Committee – which concern students’ understanding of what their rights are. If OfS thinks that it can vaguely pressure providers into proactively identifying students entitled to wads of cash, it’s misunderstanding the countervailing pressures on providers in similar ways to those identified by Mills and Reeve over provider collapse. And as I often say on the site, good regulatory design considers how individuals come to understand (or access information) on their rights should they need to use them without having to access a regulator or complaints adjudicator – there’s nothing on any of that here.

    But the third is the lack of a clear link to the regulatory framework, and the lack of any enforcement carried out over what must amount to failings. If the guidance is grounded in OfS’ rules, students might well say “well what action have you taken given that the problems were widespread?”

    If it’s not grounded in OfS’ powers, providers might well say “well notwithstanding that we like to look nice, why would we magnify the efficacy of an industrial action tactic if we don’t really have to”.

    It’s all very well for OfS to be “give them guidance” mode, but over this set of issues the financial impacts of compliance with something that sounds contested, and partly voluntary, could be huge both in an individual dispute and in the long-term. That all (still) needs bringing to a head.

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  • OfS free-speech absolutism allows abuse, harassment, and bullying

    OfS free-speech absolutism allows abuse, harassment, and bullying

    • By Professor Sasha Roseneil FAcSS PFHEA, Vice-Chancellor and President of the University of Sussex.

    On 26 March 2025, after a three-and-a-half-year long, deeply flawed, investigation into freedom of speech and academic freedom at the University of Sussex, the Office for Students issued the unprecedently high fine of £585,000, and decreed a form of free-speech absolutism as the new golden rule for universities.  Henceforth, it would appear that universities can only control a very narrowly defined version of unlawful speech that ignores our broader legal and ethical obligations to students and staff. It is an unworkable and highly detrimental decision for the whole higher education sector.

    The investigation was initiated in October 2021 in the context of protests against gender-critical philosopher Professor Kathleen Stock, around the time that she decided to resign from her position at Sussex. Much of the media and public reaction to the OfS’s decision has seen it as vindication of Kathleen Stock, and indeed the OfS itself gives as a reason for publishing the decision, that it would be ‘likely to make Professor Stock feel vindicated and may also vindicate her in public perception’. Indeed, the only person interviewed in the investigation was Kathleen Stock. This is despite the OfS acknowledging that it did not have the power to act on behalf of any individual, and that it has not investigated the circumstances relating to Kathleen Stock.

    Many commentators also regard the outcome as vindication of the gender-critical beliefs that Kathleen Stock professed during her time at Sussex and since. But again, the investigation was not a judgement in the toxic disputes about sex and gender, and the identities and rights associated with each. It is not the OfS’s role to make such judgements – in its own words it is ‘viewpoint neutral’ – just as it not the role of a university, or a Vice-Chancellor, to do so.

    Universities are arenas in which the most controversial ideas of the day are contested – and recent years have seen waves of protest and unrest on campuses across the world about a number of fiercely disputed issues. It is the job of university leaders to facilitate and contain that contestation so that it serves to advance the purpose of universities – the education and development of students and the advancement of knowledge and understanding. Continual efforts to promote and protect overlapping but not identical liberties – freedom of speech and academic freedom – are vital in this. So too are actions to ensure the absence of intimidation and bullying, and to create inclusive, supportive, and respectful learning and working environments, in which people of diverse backgrounds, beliefs and identities can succeed as individuals and come together in productive dialogue, however vehemently they might disagree. Indeed, the exercise of academic freedom and freedom of speech depends on this. Freedom of speech cannot mean the ability to shout the loudest or to abuse and frighten less powerful opponents into silence.

    The OfS’s has just made this work of universities infinitely harder, if not impossible. The single short offending document identified by the OfS, on which the weight of its findings rest, was designed to protect the welfare of trans and non-binary staff and students, a student group the OfS itself identifies as at particular risk in relation to access to and participation in higher education. When adopted at Sussex in 2018 – around the same time as at many other universities across the country – thinking about how best to support trans and non-binary people within universities was just beginning, and gender-critical beliefs had not yet been recognised as ‘protected philosophical beliefs’ under the 2010 Equality Act.   

    If the OfS is ‘viewpoint neutral’, its findings about a policy statement seeking to support trans and non-binary staff and students must be understood to apply to all staff and students – whatever their beliefs and identities. A thought experiment helps make the point: replace the trans and non-binary people with whose protection the offending document is concerned with members of other minoritised and marginalised groups – Jewish, Black, Muslim or Gypsy, Roma and Traveller people, disabled people, or lesbians and gay men, for instance.

    The implications of the OfS decision are wide ranging and highly corrosive of attempts to create diverse, inclusive, and equal working and learning environments, and threaten university autonomy. Under the OfS’s ruling, it would seem that universities cannot seek to prevent our curricula from relying on or reinforcing stereotypical assumptions about (for example) Jews or Black people, because to do otherwise could limit lawful speech. Universities cannot, from now on, remove antisemitic or racist propaganda from campus unless what it says is unlawful – again, extremely narrowly defined. And universities should not discipline anyone who engages in abuse, harassment or bullying unless that abuse, harassment or bullying meets the legal definition of harassment or hate speech – even if it breaches a range of other duties and obligations.

    In effect, the decision implies that universities cannot have policies that aim to reduce abuse, bullying and harassment – whether motivated by transphobia, antisemitism, homophobia, Islamophobia, racism, or sexism – beyond simply reproducing existing restrictions in law (which restrictions the OfS appears not to understand – for example, it does not appreciate that abuse, bullying and harassment are restricted by the Public Order Act 1986).

    It is, I fear, a charter that risks giving free rein to antisemitic, anti-Muslim, homophobic, racist, sexist, and anti-trans speech and expression in universities, as long as it stays just on the right side of the law.

    Moreover, the decision could be significantly at odds both with the wider legal obligations of universities in relation to equalities, and with the OfS’s own regulatory expectations regarding equality of opportunity for students, the quality and standards of the academic experience, and the soon to be introduced requirement to take steps to protect students from harassment and sexual misconduct.

    The OfS’s regressive and dangerous decision threatens the cohesion and governability of each of England’s diverse and vibrant universities, and it must be set aside. Today Sussex is publishing our pre-action protocol letter, which sets out the grounds of our legal challenge. I invite the OfS to respond positively, and to become a regulator that seeks collaboration and open dialogue with universities rather than punishment.

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  • OfS insight on institutional closure lacks a firm statutory foundation

    OfS insight on institutional closure lacks a firm statutory foundation

    The Office for Students’ (OfS) insight briefing “Protecting the interests of students when universities and colleges close” is as much a timely reminder of where the law falls short when providers are at risk of closure as it is a briefing on how to protect the student interest under the current policy framework.

    As we set out in our Connect more report which explored, among other things, the legal framework for institutional insolvency, market exit and/or merger, the role of OfS in any institution at risk situation is already unhelpfully ambiguous. Its concern may be the student interest, but it is not empowered to prevent institutional closure (even if, as is often likely to be the case, the student interest would be best served by completing the course they registered for at the institution they enrolled in) – or even to impose order on a disorderly market exit.

    In the absence of express powers or an insolvency or special administration regime for higher education, OfS’ role becomes one of a point person, facilitating conversations with other agencies and stakeholders, but with no powers itself to prevent a disorderly closure. The tone of the briefing is collaborative and collegiate but, in a world where students are no better protected than any other unsecured creditor if a provider becomes insolvent, it’s doubtful that, under the law as it currently stands, the interests of students will be protected to the degree to which OfS desires.

    While OfS may be primarily concerned with protecting students’ interests, the trustees of those providers that are constituted as charities have a statutory duty to act in the best interests of the charity and to pursue their charity’s purposes. This duty will, of course, encompass the needs of present students but will also encompass past students, future students, research activities and much more besides. While no one would disagree with the general sentiment that “throughout the process [of institutional closure] the interests of students, and their options for continued study, must be kept in mind” – and the briefing does offer lots of useful ideas for how to ensure sufficient attention is given to the many types of students who will be affected – the elevation of student interest to a pre-eminent concern is not what the law generally, nor what OfS’ statutory duties currently require.

    University executive teams and boards may wish, therefore, to read OfS guidance in light of these realities, and be aware of the limits of what is realistically possible or likely to occur in giving consideration to the sort of scenario planning and preparation OfS advocates in the briefing.

    A herd of elephants

    OfS’ recommendations about the need to have suitably durable and maintained student records and to have entered into binding contracts with validating and subcontracting partners that contain clauses that deal realistically with the end of the relationship and contain adequate data sharing agreements clauses are all well made.

    But once things actually start to get tricky in real life there is a level of reliance on transparency, for example, in sharing information both with OfS but also with other organisations such as funding or regulatory bodies, or government departments, or even other institutions who might be prevailed upon to welcome displaced students. In the absence of a systematised notification process, any ambiguity about whose role it is to liaise with the various potentially affected stakeholders or the timing of any such communication has high potential to create problems. There are obvious issues raised by disclosing or revealing another institution’s “at risk” status, some of which may have the effect of accelerating the very process everyone is seeking to avoid.

    If OfS considers a registered institution is at risk of closure, it can impose a student protection direction under condition C4 of the conditions of registration. The briefing provides a helpful reminder of what a student protection direction might include and encourages regular thought about these issues to avoid the need for a provider to “improvise at speed and under stress if an institutional closure becomes possible.” That sounds very laudable at first glance, but it confuses the regulatory obligation with the real-world outcome. A provider at risk of closure may well come under pressure from OfS to produce a market exit plan and to map courses at a time when university teams have the least bandwidth to undertake such tasks. In any case, it is highly doubtful whether an insolvency practitioner would be bound by such planning in the event that a provider goes into an insolvency process.

    In scenario planning, OfS moots the idea that higher education providers might consider setting up “agreements in principle” with other institutions “to take on relevant students if one or the other closes” or even “possibly multiple agreements, for different courses and subjects.” It is surprising not to see competition law mentioned in this context. The higher education sector contains a broad range of institution types, with varied teaching and delivery methods, attracting students with different needs and expectations as regards learning and study.

    This means that in practice the providers that pair up to take on one another’s students in the event of institutional failure will need to be similar types of provider – precisely those that are in competition for students in the first place. As Kate Newman has argued in an article on the impact of competition law on higher education collaboration, it would be helpful if OfS and the Competition and Markets Authority could jointly consider these kinds of circumstances for the sector as a whole rather than providers having to navigate this complex legal territory on an individual basis.

    We’re also concerned that any such “agreement in principle” will not be legally binding and will have been reached at a single point in time, when conditions may be quite different to the time when the institutions seek to rely on them. There is a very real risk that unless these agreements are refreshed annually (a time consuming and potentially collusive activity) they will turn out to be like the original student protection plans in being not terribly helpful.

    A sector like no other

    In issuing its briefing OfS argues that “this sort of risk and contingency planning is normal in other regulated sectors,” citing the examples of customer supply contingency plans for energy suppliers and the need for banks to have recovery and resolution plans. However, both of these sectors have highly developed insolvency regimes. Drafting recovery and resolution plans is much easier to achieve when there is a viable insolvency process in place. Both the energy and banking sectors have special administration processes in place and there has been much recent press coverage on the water sector special administration process, in light of Thames Water’s difficulties.

    OfS encourages institutions to undertake extensive course mapping. However, given the scale of the financial pressures facing the sector, it’s doubtful how valuable such course mapping is likely to be where potential recipient institutions are perhaps equally likely to be at risk of closure. To be fair to OfS, the briefing stresses that mapping is particularly relevant for those institutions that offer specialist provision.

    And here, of course, lies the essential problem. As OfS states: “We have drawn on our experience of managing two relevant cases at small and specialist higher education providers during the past year, and of instances where there was a serious risk of a closure which did not materialise.” The counterfactual – closure of a large and generalist provider which does materialise – remains the biggest elephant in the room. While OfS’ openness in sharing its insights is to be welcomed, it does nothing to diminish the need for urgent structural change.

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  • DfE and OfS are running out of road on regulating a “free market” effectively

    DfE and OfS are running out of road on regulating a “free market” effectively

    On The Wonkhe Show, Public First’s Jonathan Simons offers up a critique of the way the higher education sector has been organised in recent years.

    He says that despite being more pro-market than most, he’s increasingly come to the view that the sector needs greater stewardship.

    He says that the theory of change embedded in the Higher Education and Research Act 2017 – that we should have more providers, and that greater choice and contestability and composition will raise standards – has worked in some instances.

    But he adds that it is now “reasonably clear” that the deleterious side effects of it, particularly at a time of fiscal stringency, are “now not worth a candle”:

    If we as a sector don’t start to take action on this, then the risk is that somebody who is less informed, just makes a judgment? And at the stroke of a ministerial pen, we have no franchising, or we have a profit cap, or we have student number controls. Like that is a really, really bad outcome here, but that is also the outcome we are hurtling towards, because at some point government is going to say we don’t like this and we’re just going to stop it overnight.

    Some critiques of marketisation are really just critiques of massification – and some assume that we don’t have to worry about whether students actually want to study something at all. I don’t think those are helpful.

    But it does seem to be true that the dominant civil service mindset defaults to regulated markets with light stewardship as the only way to organise things.

    Civil servants often assume that new regulatory mechanisms and contractual models can be fine-tuned to deliver better outcomes over time. But the constant tweaking of market structures leads to instability and policy churn – and bad actors nip around the complexity.

    Much of Simons’ critique was about the Sunday Times and the franchising scandal. But meanwhile, across the sector, something else is happening.

    Another one

    Underneath daily announcements on redundancies, senior managers and governing bodies are increasingly turning to data analytics firms to inform their academic portfolios.

    The advice is relatively consistent – close courses with low market share and poor demand projections, maintain and grow those showing high share or significant growth potential.

    But when every university independently follows that supposedly rational strategy, there’s a risk of stumbling into a classic economic trap – a prisoner’s dilemma where individual optimisation leads to collective failure.

    The prisoner’s dilemma, a staple of economic game theory, runs like this. Two prisoners, unable to communicate, have to decide whether to cooperate with each other or defect. Each makes the decision that seems best for their individual circumstance – but the outcome is worse for both than if they had cooperated.

    I witnessed it unfold a couple of weeks ago. On a Zoom call, I watched four SU officers (under the Chatham House rule, obvs) from the same region simultaneously share that their university was planning to expand their computer science provision while quietly admitting they were “reviewing the viability” of their modern languages departments.

    It did sound like, on probing, that their universities were all responding to the same market intelligence, provided by the same consultancies, using the same metrics.

    Each university, acting independently and rationally to maximise its own market position, makes decisions that seem optimal when viewed in isolation. Close the underperforming philosophy department. Expand the business school. Withdraw from modern languages. Double down on computer science.

    But when every university follows the same market-share playbook, the collective result risks the sector becoming a monoculture, with some subjects vanishing from entire regions or parts of the tariff tables – despite their broader societal value.

    The implications of coordination failure aren’t just theoretical – they are reshaping the physical and intellectual geography of education in real time.

    Let’s imagine three post-92 universities in the North East and Yorkshire each offered degrees in East Asian languages, all with modest enrolment. Each institution, following market share analysis, determines that the subject falls below their viability threshold of 40 students per cohort. Acting independently, all three close their departments, creating a subject desert that now forces students in the region to relocate hundreds of miles to pursue their interest.

    The spatial mismatch of Hotelling’s Location Model means students having to travel further or relocate entirely – disproportionately affecting those from lower-income backgrounds.

    And once a subject disappears from a region, bringing it back becomes extraordinarily difficult. Unlike a coffee shop that can quickly return to a high street when demand reappears, universities face significant barriers to re-entry. The sunk costs of hiring specialist staff, establishing facilities, securing accreditation, and rebuilding reputation create path dependencies that lock in those decisions for generations.

    The Matthew effect and blind spots

    Market-driven restructuring doesn’t affect all providers equally. Higher education in the UK operates as a form of monopolistic competition, with stratified tiers of universities differentiated by reputation, research intensity, and selectivity.

    The Matthew effect – where advantages accumulate to those already advantaged – means that elite universities with strong brands and secure finances can maintain niche subjects even with smaller cohorts.

    Meanwhile universities lower in the prestige hierarchy – often serving more diverse and less privileged student populations – find themselves disproportionately pressured to cut anything deemed financially marginal.

    Elite concentration means higher-ranking universities are likely to become regional monopolists in certain subjects – reducing accessibility for students who can’t meet their entry requirements.

    Are we really comfortable with a system where studying philosophy becomes the preserve of those with the highest A-level results, while those with more modest prior attainment are funnelled exclusively toward subjects deemed to have immediate market value?

    Markets are remarkable mechanisms for allocating resources efficiently in many contexts. But higher education generates significant positive externalities – benefits that extend beyond the individual student to society at large. Knowledge spillovers, regional economic development, civic engagement, and cultural enrichment represent value that market signals alone fail to capture.

    Market failure is especially acute for subjects with high social utility but lower immediate market demand. Philosophy develops critical thinking capabilities essential for a functioning democracy. Modern languages facilitate international cooperation. Area studies provide crucial cultural competence for diplomacy and global business. And so on.

    When market share becomes a dominant decision criterion, broader societal benefits remain invisible on the balance sheet. The market doesn’t price in what we collectively lose when the last medieval history department in a region closes, or when the study of non-European languages becomes accessible only to those in London and Oxbridge.

    And market analysis often assumes static demand curves – failing to account for latent demand – students who might have applied had a subject remained available in their region.

    Demand for higher education isn’t exogenous – it’s endogenously shaped by availability itself. You can’t desire what you don’t know exists. Hence the huge growth in franchised Business Degrees pushed by domestic agents.

    Collective irrationality

    What’s rational for an individual university becomes irrational for the system as a whole. Demand and share advice makes perfect sense for a single institution seeking to optimise its portfolio. But when universally applied, it creates what economists call aggregate coordination failure – local optimisations generating system-wide inefficiencies.

    The long-term consequences extend beyond subject availability. Regional labour markets may face skill shortages in key areas. Cultural and intellectual diversity diminishes. Social mobility narrows as subject access becomes increasingly determined by prior academic advantage. The public good function of universities – to serve society broadly, not just commercially viable market segments – erodes.

    But the consequences of market-driven strategies extend beyond immediate subject availability. If we look at long-term societal impacts, we end up with a diminished talent pool in crucial but less popular fields – from rare languages to theoretical physics – creating intellectual gaps that can take generations to refill.

    An innovative economy – which thrives on unexpected connections between diverse knowledge domains – suffers when some disciplines disappear from regions or become accessible only to the most privileged students.

    Imagine your small but vibrant Slavic studies department closes following the kind of market share analysis I’ve explained – you lose not just courses but cross-disciplinary collaborations that generate innovative research projects. Your political science colleagues suddenly lacked crucial language expertise during the Ukraine crisis. Your business school’s Eastern European initiatives withered. A national “Languages and Security” project will boot you out as a partner.

    Universities don’t compete on price but on quality, reputation, and differentiation. It creates a market structure where elite institutions can maintain prestige by offering subjects regardless of immediate profitability, while less prestigious universities face intense pressure to focus only on high-demand areas.

    In the past decade, some cross-subsidy and assumptions that the Russell Group wouldn’t expand disproportionately helped. But efficiency has done what efficiency always does.

    Both of the assumptions are now gone – the RG returning to the sort of home student numbers it was forced to take when the mutant algorithm inflated A-Levels in 2020.

    Efficiency in market terms – optimising resources to meet measurable demand – conflicts directly with EDI and A&P goals like fair access and diverse provision. A system that efficiently “produces” large numbers of business graduates in large urban areas while eliminating classics, philosophy, and modern languages might satisfy immediate market metrics while failing dramatically at broader social missions.

    And that’s all made harder when, to save money, providers are reducing elective and pathway choice rather than enhancing it.

    Choice and voice

    When we visited Maynooth University last year we found structures that allow students to “combine subjects across arts and sciences to meet the challenges of tomorrow.” It responds to what we know about Gen Z demands for interdisciplinary opportunities and application – and allows research-active academics to exist where demands for full, “headline” degrees in their field are low.

    In Latvia recently, the minister demanded, and will now create the conditions to require, that all students be able to accrue some credit in different subjects in different institutions – partly facilitated by a kind of domestic Erasmus (responding in part to a concern about the emigration caused by actual Erasmus).

    Over in Denmark, one university structures its degrees around broad disciplinary areas rather than narrowly defined subjects. Roskilde maintains intellectual diversity while achieving operational efficiency – interdisciplinary foundation years, project-based learning that integrates multiple disciplines, and a streamlined portfolio of just five undergraduate degrees.

    As one student said when we were there:

    The professors teaching the classes at other universities feel a need to make their little modules this or that, practical or applied as well as grounded in theory. Here they don’t have that pressure.

    And if it’s true that we’re trapped in a reductive binary between lumbering, statist public services on the one hand, and lean, mean private innovative operators on the other, the false dichotomy paralyses our ability to imagine alternative approaches.

    As I note here, in the Netherlands there’s an alternative via its “(semi)public sector” framework, which integrates public interest accountability with institutional autonomy. Dutch universities operate with clear governance standards that empower stakeholders, mandate transparency, enforce quality improvement, and cap senior staff pay – all while receiving substantial public investment. It recognises that universities are neither purely market actors nor government departments, but entities with distinct public service obligations.

    When Belgian student services operate through distinct governance routes with direct student engagement, or when Norwegian student welfare is delivered through regional cooperative organisations, we see alternatives to both market competition and centralised planning.

    They suggest that universities could maintain subject diversity and geographical access not through either unfettered market choice or central planning mandates, but through governance structures that systematically integrate the voices of students, staff, and regional stakeholders into portfolio decisions. The prisoner’s dilemma is solved not by altering individual incentives alone, but by fundamentally reimagining how decisions are made.

    Other alternatives include better-targeted funding initiatives for strategically important subjects regardless of market demand, proper cross-institutional collaboration where universities collectively maintain subject breadth, regulatory frameworks that actually incentivise (rather than just warn against extremes in removing) geographical distribution of specialist provision, new metrics for university performance beyond enrolment and immediate graduate employment and better information for prospective students about long-term career pathways and societal value when multiple subject areas are on the degree transcript.

    Another game to play

    Game theory suggests that communication, coordination, and changing the incentive structure can transform the outcome.

    First, we need policy interventions that incentivise the public good nature of higher education, rather than just demand minimums in it. Strategic funding for subjects – and crucially, minor pathways or modules – that are deemed nationally important, regardless of their current market demand, can maintain intellectual infrastructure. Incentives for regional subject provision might ensure geographical diversity.

    Universities will need to stop using CMA as an excuse, and develop cooperative rather than competitive strategies. Regional consortia planning, subject-sharing agreements, and collaborative provision models are in the public interest, and will maintain breadth while allowing individual institutions to develop distinctive strengths.

    Flexible pathways, shared core skills, interdisciplinary integration – all may prove more resilient against market pressures than narrowly defined single-subject degrees. They allow universities to maintain intellectual diversity while achieving operational efficiency. And they’re what Gen Z say they want. Some countries’ equivalents of QAA subject benchmarking statements have 10, or 15, with no less choice of pathways across and within them. In the UK we somehow maintain 59.

    At the sector level, collaborative governance structures that overcome the coordination failure means resource-sharing for smaller subjects, and student mobility within and between regions even for those we might consider as “commuter students”.

    OfS’ regulatory framework could be reformed to incentivise and reward collaboration rather than focusing primarily on institutional competition and financial sustainability. Funding could reintroduce targeted support for strategically important subjects, informed by decent mapping of subject (at module level) deserts and cold spots.

    Most importantly, universities’ governing instruments should be reformed to explicitly recognise their status as “(semi)public sector bodies” with obligations beyond institutional self-interest – redefining success not as market share growth but as contributing to an accessible, diverse, and high-quality higher education system that serves both individual aspirations and collective needs.

    Almost every scandal other than free speech – from VC pay to gifts inducements, from franchising fraud to campus closures, from grade inflation to international agents – is arguably one of the Simons’ deleterious side effects, which are collectively rapidly starting to look overwhelming. Even free speech is said by those who think there’s a problem to be caused by “pandering” to student consumers.

    Universities survive because they serve purposes beyond market demands. They preserve and transmit knowledge across generations, challenge orthodoxies, generate unanticipated innovations, and prepare citizens for futures we can’t yet imagine.

    If they respond solely to market signals, the is risk losing what makes them distinctive and valuable. That requires bravery – seeing beyond the apparent rationality of individual market optimisation to recognise the collective value of a diverse, accessible, and geographically distributed higher education sector.

    It doesn’t mean running provision that students don’t want to study – but it does mean actively promoting valuable subjects to them if they matter, the government intervening to signal that quality can (and does) exist outside of the Russell Group, and it means structuring degrees such that some subjects and specialisms can be studied as components if not the title on the transcript.

    It also very much requires civil servants and their ministers to wean themselves off the dominant orthodoxy of regulated markets as being the best or only way to do stuff.

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  • Collaboration in Action: The Third Sector Forum and the OfS Equality Agenda

    Collaboration in Action: The Third Sector Forum and the OfS Equality Agenda

    Last month, the Office for Students (OfS) confirmed the successful bids for their £2 million Equality of Opportunity Innovation Fund, launched to ‘support institutions to undertake new and innovative collaborative work or projects that will reduce risks to equality of opportunity’. 

    It is the culmination of three years of collaboration, beginning in February 2022 when Impetus hosted John Blake in his first external speaking event as the OfS’s Director for Fair Access and Participation.

    This seminal event gave rise to the Third Sector Forum – a quarterly dialogue between the Office for Students and third sector organisations working to support young people into higher education.   

    As an impact funder supporting the best attainment, engagement, and employment interventions for young people from disadvantaged backgrounds, we recognise the invaluable role of the third sector in addressing deep-seated barriers. We wanted to support this knowledge-sharing in the widening participation space.  

    Three years on, I spoke to some of the CEOs of Third Sector Forum organisations on what’s made the forum a success.

    Trust and openness  

    I was struck by the number of CEOs who cited the forum’s format as key to its success. While we fund widening participation organisations, Impetus itself is not a direct delivery organisation, meaning we can provide an independent middle ground. As a result, many emphasised the forum’s open and trusting nature and the uniqueness of this set-up. Anna Searle, CEO of The Access Project, reflected on how ‘you don’t often have the [governmental regulatory body] being as open with their constituent group’.  

    Another key factor in the success of the forum was the genuine engagement from the Office for Students, and particularly John Blake. Jayne Taylor, CEO of The Elephant Group, emphasised how John ‘genuinely listens to the voices around the table’, while Anna was quick to note how he went beyond discussing challenges for the OfS and what was next and provided his genuine views and reflections.  

    Collaborating and knowledge sharing

    Sam Holmes, CEO of Causeway Education, mentioned how participating in the sessions enabled him to form partnerships with other organisations in the space. Sitting next to Jayne when the Innovation Fund was announced, he says they were ‘immediately having conversations about […] potential collaboration’. 

    For organisations such as Causeway, which occupy a different space to programmatic organisations, it was also valuable to hear from colleagues across the sector. Forum members were able to share updates which, for Sam, demonstrated the wealth of collective knowledge and painted a picture of the higher education landscape.

    Shifting the narrative

    Action Tutoring is another member of the forum who wouldn’t ordinarily describe itself as a widening participation organisation. Susannah Hardyman, then-CEO, initially wondered if it was the right place for Action Tutoring, whose tutoring stops at age 16.  Organisations focusing on Level 2 outcomes have not always been seen as part of the widening participation space, but John Blake’s conscious decision to widen the focus of the equality of opportunity agenda brought them within scope. Over time, Susannah began to feel Action Tutoring had a place, helping to shift the narrative of what ‘widening participation’ means.

    At Impetus, we know that each step up the qualification ladder halves your chances of being NEET. We also know that early intervention is critical – before the barriers that young people face become acute – making the case for the importance of Level 2 pathways in achieving equality of opportunity. For Susannah, both the dialogue and John Blake’s emphasis on GCSE attainment, ‘[genuinely] did change the narrative of how we understand widening participation’. The implications of this reverberated beyond the four walls of the forum, opening up opportunities for organisations like Action Tutoring, which was later funded by the University of Brighton to work with two secondary schools on GCSE attainment.

    What next? 

    Policy professionals will know how rare it is to attribute policy change to their work. So, while Third Sector Forum members should undoubtedly shout about the fact that their expertise and dedication have helped to bring about £2 million of funding and a change to regulatory guidance, the work doesn’t end there. 

    Last year, the widening participation gap grew to 20.8 percentage points – its highest recorded level. The number is staggering, and even more bleak when coupled with a higher education sector on its knees and a ‘fiscal blackhole’ with seemingly no money to plug it up. It is clear that fighting to achieve equality of opportunity is more important than ever, but how?

    That a key pillar of the updated regulatory guidance is collaboration with the third sector is a testament to the success of the forum, but we can and must go further. 

    For Jayne Taylor, this looks like working groups or direct-action areas to facilitate collaboration, leveraging the collective knowledge and resources of the sector. With further investment, the forum could even evolve into an ecosystem, with opportunities for publishing research, bidding and running events together. 

    Collaboration also looks like an ever-evolving partnership between third sector organisations and the regulator. Anna Searle suggested implementing mechanisms for feedback loops, such as regular newsletters, to continue to foster a transmission of knowledge between forum members and the Office for Students. 

    For some, it feels like public policy is waiting for a return to pre-pandemic conditions. They believe that to truly move forward, we need to adapt to the present socio-economic landscape. One CEO pointed out the need for realistic conversations about the economic realities of the sector. With 40% of higher education institutions thought to be in deficit in 2023/24, providers and organisations are operating in an unprecedented funding landscape. For Sam Holmes, clearer messaging for charities that have relied on university contracts is increasingly necessary. He suggests there may even be benefits to involving funders in these discussions, alongside considering alternative partnerships, funding models and strategies.

    For others, such as Susannah Hardyman, we must continue to reevaluate our understanding of ‘equality of opportunity’.  With a record 56% of students now working part-time while studying, foodbank usage doubling since 2022, and 60% stating that money concerns affected their university choice, the landscape has undoubtedly changed. Where two decades ago the focus was relatively narrow – focused mostly around supporting high-achievers from deprived areas into high tariff institutions – this understanding has moved on. For Susannah, this needs to be taken into account, not to quash ambition but to broaden the definition of opportunity to reach as wide a group as possible. 

    When we hosted the Director for Fair Access and Participation three years ago, he said,

    ‘We are not short on people who will give up days, weeks, years of their time to pour into projects supporting the vulnerable and disadvantaged. We are not short on good suggestions, possible solutions, and rough ideas how things could be better. No, what we lack, still, is enough commitment for all those dedicated people to work together…’ 

    While the past few years have demonstrated the commitment that may have been missing previously, if we are to give every young person equal opportunity to succeed, our work is far from over. 

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  • Podcast: OfS chair, employment, skills

    Podcast: OfS chair, employment, skills

    This week on the podcast Nottingham Trent VC Edward Peck has been confirmed as the government’s candidate for Chair of OfS. But what does his focus on “quality improvement” and engagement with governing bodies mean for the regulator’s approach—and how will his skepticism of government bailouts impact struggling institutions?

    Meanwhile, as the Employment Rights Bill sees significant amendments, we unpack what proposed changes to zero-hours contracts and industrial action rules could mean for universities and students. And with the policy spotlight shifting from “knowledge” to “skills,” we’re asking—where do universities fit into the UK’s economic vision?

    With Brooke Storer-Church, CEO at GuildHE, Neil Mackenzie, CEO at Leeds Beckett Students’ Union, David Kernohan, Deputy Editor at Wonkhe and hosted by Jim Dickinson, Associate Editor at Wonkhe.

    Read more

    Edward Peck’s performance at the Education Committee

    How R&D creates new skills and can jump start the economy

    Policy change can help manage the demand for graduate knowledge and skills

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  • OfS is starting to better understand the student interest

    OfS is starting to better understand the student interest

    Part of the point of having a regulator focused on students, rather than – say – a funding council or a department, was always about acting in “the student interest” rather than, say, the “provider” interest.

    But ever since HEFCE started talking about “the student interest” back when it made the Quality Assurance Agency bid to become its quality assurance agency, there’s always been a vague sense that “the student interest” is only ever really definable by reference to what it isn’t, rather than what it is.

    Can you define “a seminar”? Maybe not. Is 150 people in a room “a seminar?” Nope. And so on.

    In theory, once you know what “the student interest” actually is, you can then embed it into regulatory priority setting, regulatory design and regulatory activity.

    It’s a laudable principle, but as the idea hit reality it turned out that the sheer diversity and complementarity of student interests are not easily understood or quickly realised.

    As the Office for Students (OfS) has dealt with “monster of the week” framings of freedom of speech and grammar in assessment, a common criticism has been that student interest has been “ventriloquised” to back (sometimes questionable) ministerial priorities.

    And in areas where the body it has been using to define the student interest has gone against the views of ministers – for example on decolonisation and inclusive curricula – there appears to have been a concerning tendency to silence competing voices.

    Have students historically been able to trust OfS to advocate for their interests? It’s not entirely clear. The publication of new research into student priorities is therefore supposed to centre aspects of the authentic student voice within regulation and policy.

    Research findings

    OfS has worked with polling companies and conducted its own surveys and focus groups to gather information. Sources include:

    • Polling conducted by Savanta (1,761 students and graduates)
    • Two online focus groups conducted by YouGov
    • A YouGov online survey (750 responses) with prospective students, current students and graduates
    • An online focus group with students from small and specialist providers, arranged with the support of GuildHE
    • The Office for Students Student Panel

    Though this is a fair amount of evidence, OfS is clear that what is presented is a snapshot – the interests and priorities of students will evolve in future. The outputs from this exercise have helped to shape the recent OfS strategy – future strategic thinking would need to be shaped by more recent examples of this kind of engagement.

    The research is presented in four themes, covering student experiences and expectations, the idea of students as consumers, student interests in the long and short term, and the relationship between the student interest and the public interest.

    As presented, each section offers headline findings and key results from polling followed by a range of illustrative quotes from individual students.

    Students expect a high quality education that “reflects their financial investment and the promise that was made to them” – this includes opportunities to engage in social and extra-curricular activities. Academic and personal needs should be supported, and students also expect opportunities that will help their future careers.

    Yougov polling found that 79 per cent of undergraduates believed that university had either met or exceeded their expectations – 91 per cent felt they would end up with a credible qualification, 90 per cent felt they would leave with credible knowledge of their subject area.

    In contrast students do not feel they have received sufficient one-on-one support from staff, and have experienced disruption from the Covid-19 restrictions on activity and industrial action. More widely, the cost of living has had an impact on studies (60 per cent of students polled by Savanta agreed) – students were clear there is insufficient financial support available. And there is a persistent feeling that tuition fees are too high – 60 per cent felt their degree represented value for money.

    Specific issues have included difficulties in finding suitable and affordable accommodation, and a lack of mental health support for those who need it. Savanta polling suggested that 28 per cent of undergraduates felt contact hours had been insufficient to support their learning, 32 per cent of undergraduates had issues with the way their course has been taught, and 40 per cent said that one of the three biggest influences on their success was financial support.

    I was promised x amount of hours in person and I wasn’t able to due to strikes/Covid. Online lectures/seminars were not fruitful at all. (Male, 23, graduate, YouGov focus group)

    You can’t do anything without your health and with the stress that can come with the intense study and financial restraints of university life it is particularly important that the university supports students so they can maintain good wellbeing. (Male, 20, higher education student, YouGov focus group)

    Lots of different things can influence student interests. Cultural differences can mean some students might need varying levels of support to properly enjoy university life. Socioeconomic backgrounds for example can require that students will have an interest in needing either more financial support or the ability to balance part time work with studies.’ (Female, 23, higher education student, YouGov focus group)

    As signalled over the summer, students as a whole do not like the term “consumer”, feeling that the term implied education could be bought rather than acquired through personal effort. That said, there was an identification with the idea of “student rights” – both in terms of promises being met and access to refunds.

    And the idea of students as “investors” in their education was not viewed favourably either – students don’t consider their financial contribution as a choice, preferring to think about how they invest their time and effort.

    Students are not really given consumers rights, as seen by Covid year students who want money back. If you are given a false promise … there should be a way to complain … but [there] is not really. (Female, 18, further education student, YouGov focus group)

    It is much more difficult to complain, and essentially impossible to claim a refund. (Female, 20, higher education student, YouGov focus group)

    I have a right to get what I was expecting when I signed up for the degree… This means having teaching provision in line with what was advertised. (Female, 20, higher education student, YouGov focus group)

    There is a slight preference (60 to 40 per cent) for a provider focus on long-term rather than short-term student interests.

    By “short term”, students mean their day-to-day experiences – so stuff like academic support, progression and success, costs of living, and mental well being. “Long term” interests extend beyond graduation, revolving around career preparation and progression, skills for employment, and networking.

    I think in the short-term, academic and pastoral support with exams and coursework deadlines is most important, as well as general support with aspects of student life such as managing finances, finding accommodation etc. (Female, 20, higher education student, YouGov focus group)

    For me long-term encompasses the whole of the time I spend at university and then the years after where my degree affects my career progression etc. (Female, 23, higher education student, YouGov focus group)

    You’ll have spotted that there’s less information in these sections as we go on – the last one gives another inconclusive split – according to students, providers should focus on delivering student benefits (66 per cent) rather than public benefits (36 per cent).

    There were “a number of perceived conflicts” between student and public interest – these were “related” to tuition fees and accommodation, but we are not told what they are precisely.

    From the focus group quotes we can deduce that there is a public interest in developing graduates. The public interest may be to minimise student debt, while individual students might benefit by not paying off loans – the public might not like student accommodation blocks in city centres, while students do.

    That these hang off a mere handful of focus group quotes is frustrating and limits the usefulness of the insights. That “provider interest” is missing is also frustrating – plenty of students will argue with themselves and each other about the extent to which their personal interests can conflict with those of “the university”.

    I think a long-term interest of developing inquisitive, interested graduates who want to continue to learn about and critically analyse the world around them is an incredibly important part of a robust society. (Female, 33, higher education student, YouGov focus group)

    Student debt is a clear conflict of interest between students and the public interest. It is in the public interest to minimise student debt as a lot of it is not paid off by the students, however an individual student is benefiting by not paying off their student loans. (Female, 20, higher education student, YouGov focus group)

    Student accommodation is another example. Generally, members of the public don’t like having large student accommodation blocks built in city centres, however many students would like to live close to university and of course, in a cheaper accommodation. (Female, 20, higher education student, YouGov focus group)

    Also frustrating is the extent to which the findings seem to assume that students can’t or won’t consider their community or collective interests – understanding the extent to which, for example, student A is prepared to cross-subsidise student B’s mental health support or more expensive teaching probably matters much more than knowing who’s thinking short-term or longer-term, when surely pretty much everyone has both rattling around in their head.

    So what?

    For anyone who works with students, or has met students, none of these findings will come as a huge surprise. There are many formal and informal surveys of students and graduates, and this new research largely acts as a way of reinforcing what is already known.

    For critics, not being able to see the underpinning polling data raises all sorts of questions – like what was asked, who was asked, when were they asked it, what the differences were by characteristic or provider type, and how the results were weighted – partly because one way for a regulator to prioritise is by focussing in on those most at risk, or most unhappy, and so on.

    It’s also possible to raise an eyebrow at some of the conclusions that OfS Director for Fair Access and Participation John Blake draws from the research. When he says, for example, that he has “discovered” that students have two categories of expectation – one relating to their experiences of higher education (what studying feels like) and the other relating to what it gets them in the future – you are left thinking “well what else would they have expectations about” if not “good job the whole of your quality improvement medals scheme, a review of which involved a shed ton of research with students, also framed things in terms of experience and outcomes”.

    It’s possible to have expectations that are too high given OfS’ form, legal remit and the realities of day to day expectations. Jim often notes that while students’ unions will carry out plenty of research into “the student interest”, they’re still going to run a freshers fair, a course rep system and elect some full-time sabbatical officers in March – just as for all the research that providers do on their strategies, they pretty much all still vow to deliver excellent teaching, groundbreaking research, something something knowledge exchange and civic, and something something buildings HR and finance. For all the high blown rhetoric about change on inception, OfS is still a cruise ship not a speedboat.

    One thing that does still feel missing is not so much the recognition that diverse students have different priorities and interests – that does come out vividly in Blake’s blog – but that when you have a fixed remit and limited resources, you do have to prioritise. Add in that sometimes diverse interests are opposed, and you then have to set out how and who makes the calls, and then demonstrate that that has impacted what you do and how you do it. You do get the sense that there are passionate people in there who recognise that – but that there’s still a way to go in delivering the old “whole provider strategy” thing inside OfS.

    There’s also the partner question. Perhaps the newly souped-up interest board will get to do some of this, but if you take that two-thirds/one-thirds split on student v public interest, the point about student as partner is that they are seen both as capable of holding both thoughts in their head at once, and capable of contributing to a discussion about how you find a way through what can feel like a contradiction. It’s true on freedom of speech v freedom from harm , it’s true on “high academic standards” v “supporting students to succeed”, and true on the often contested balance between student feedback and academic authority. Education is always co-produced, even if one side is young and paying for it and the other “provides” it.

    Nevertheless, while eight years in is a bit late to be properly considering how the “student interest” is defined strategically, this is a good start. Over the coming year it says it will share further student insight based on polls and engagement that it has done – that might be on a topic with direct links back into its regulation, or something of regulatory interest to OfS but where it’s not yet planning direct regulation, or unable to act directly. The theory of change is that that sort of information can suggest areas of focus for providers (and while it doesn’t say so, for ministers) and support informed choice by students.

    If nothing else, it should allow students and their representatives to test whether the issues they’ve spoken on – on accommodation, on support, on their rights, and on value for money – will be acted on meaningfully by a regulator that is starting to realise just how important keeping promises to students is.

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  • When OfS reopens its register, there will be implications for everyone else

    When OfS reopens its register, there will be implications for everyone else

    The process may be paused right now, but if you are thinking of registering with the Office for Students (by choice, or following the requirement for larger franchise providers to get on board) the game is changing.

    The Office for Students has issued a consultation on two new initial conditions of registration.

    Interested parties have until 23 April to offer feedback, with the overwhelming majority of conditions due to come into force from August – at the point where OfS is planning to resume registration activity following the current pause.

    This will have a particular impact on providers who are currently planning (or preparing to restart) submissions quashed when the pause started. Expectations and requirements will change – and while OfS hopes to primarily assess documents a provider will already have, these things do tend to be tailored to fit requirements.

    C5: Treating students fairly

    New condition C5 replaces C1 (consumer law) and C3 (protection plans) as initial conditions – an assessment will be based on identifying behaviours that constitute unfair treatment of students (there is a list) from documents providers already have.

    There are implications from that one that reach far beyond new applications to the register – Jim Dickinson has covered those in detail elsewhere on the site.

    E7: Effective governance

    This new initial condition replaces the current E1 (on public interest governance) and E2 (on management and governance), though those two remain as ongoing conditions. OfS offers a rationale:

    We are increasingly finding that newly established providers (with less experience of delivering higher education) are less sure about what is required in terms of the self-assessment we ask for at registration. This leads to inefficiencies in the assessment.

    Providers have been engaged in substantial back-and-forth conversations with OfS about what is expected during registration. The regulator has noted that people are describing existing documents where it would be quicker to submit them, and has spotted that what is submitted can often be poorly written and excessively tailored to paint a rosy (and hopefully successful) picture.

    Some applicants have been borrowing and adapting plans and documentation from other providers that are inapplicable (a small, single subject, provider using processes developed for a traditional, multi-faculty, university) – in part because of perceived expectations that newly established providers need to have the same range of processes and policies.

    So the self-assessment aspect will go – the plan is that providers should submit actual governance documents, a five year action plan, and other bits on the knowledge and experience of those involved.

    One surprising shift is that there will no longer be an explicit test of “public interest governance” (the Nolan principles and suchlike) in the registration process. OfS reckon that the strengths of the rest of these new requirements, plus the continued inclusion in ongoing condition E1, makes up for this.

    Ditto the absence of the (largely toothless) student protection plan – the line being that this should be visible to students via the documentation provided, which is a win for all those applicants who read governance documentation before they decide where to apply. See Jim’s piece for more detail.

    Documentation

    So what would you now need to submit:

    • The governing body’s terms of reference (or similar), which would cover purpose, membership, appointment procedures, responsibilities, decision-making procedures, meeting frequency and the arrangements for reviewing effectiveness
    • Establishing documents – like a Royal Charter or articles of association
    • A scheme of delegation (or anything else useful) about who makes decisions and how
    • Documentation pertaining to risk and audit – the operations of the committee responsible is given as one example
    • A policy on conflict of interest

    These are, to be clear, governance documents, not detailed operational arrangements – although of course such policies would need to be operationalised for ongoing conditions E1 and E2.

    In assessing these documents, OfS intends to look at the “appropriateness of arrangements”, bearing in mind a provider’s size, complexity, context, and business plan.

    Oh yeah, you need a five year business plan too. The regulator hasn’t been impressed with what has been seen so far.

    Some providers applying for registration have not been able to demonstrate that they have sufficient understanding of how the higher education sector operates. This can result in a provider making unrealistic assumptions in its planning, such as overestimating its ability to recruit students in a competitive market, which can pose risks to the ongoing viability of the provider and cause associated harm to students.

    Part of being sufficiently equipped to deliver higher education is preparing to meet the relevant regulatory requirements. We have encountered issues where newly registered providers were not sufficiently aware of the regulatory framework and so did not have robust plans in place to meet ongoing requirements

    And there’s a telling indication that problems multiply pretty quickly when the plans get hit with a dose of operational reality.

    Where a provider does not have robust plans in place, it may encounter financial challenges after registration. Providers have at times taken steps to address this without fully considering the risk of doing so, for example:

    a. Rapidly entering into new partnership arrangements because of the unexpected withdrawal of a current partner without having the governance and management processes needed to manage this change properly.

    b. Employing financially incentivised external recruitment agents to meet recruitment targets that are too ambitious.

    c. Taking out additional unplanned borrowing to fund unanticipated expenditure.

    All of these behaviours can result in negative consequences for students and taxpayers

    Being objective

    Who could possibly have foreseen, eh? Going forward OfS would like business plans to be comprehensive and clearly written – and demonstrate an understanding of the sector, of managing risks, and of the conditions of registration.

    It’s all standard stuff (objectives and targets and how to achieve them, risks and how to manage them, regulatory compliance) over a challengingly long five-year period. OfS’ assessment will not be based on the targets themselves, but whether the provider can deliver these in practice given their resources and prevailing sector conditions. As an overriding primary consideration the plans need to focus on the interests of students.

    There’s no expectation that there will be an assessment of the objectives in and of themselves (or whether they are a proper thing for the provider to pursue), and OfS would not endorse these objectives – it’s more a matter of understanding a provider’s chosen approach in looking at the plans it has to deliver. A neat distinction.

    People who need people

    So who will be delivering these plans? The new condition would set out key knowledge and expertise for the chair of the governing body, accountable officer, and where applicable, the person with overarching responsibility for financial management and an independent member of the governing body. There’s a sensible sounding list on pages 30-33, but the big shocker is that these would be assessed via an interview with OfS officers!

    Yes, you read that right: 30 to 60 minutes based on key questions allowing said knowledge and experience to be demonstrated. On one level it feels sensible to talk to the people involved as a way of establishing the credibility of plans, but the feeling that OfS is appointing (or approving the appointment of) your chief financial officer is a hard one to shake.

    In contrast the “fit and proper persons” test is pretty much as expected, with additional requirements to supply new information (if you are disqualified as a director or trustee, or declared bankrupt) during the course of the application process. This is a welcome admission that these processes can take a long time to work through.

    You’ve probably spotted that OfS and government are now very focused on fraud in the sector – and assessment of arrangements to prevent fraud will focus on an institution’s track record where it has already been delivering higher education as part of a franchise or partnership arrangement.

    Other requirements for registration applications

    Got all that? Well strap in, there’s more.

    There’s the new C5, the new E7, and OfS intends to beef up their financial information requirements from August 2025 too.

    Financial viability and sustainability is currently assessed via initial condition D – providers already submit full, audited, financial statements for up to three years alongside four years of forecasts and a commentary on these. OfS has noted that new registrants tend to defer their first year of recruitment (setting up a HE provider is hard!) and substantially under recruit when they do – with current financial and recruitment pressures this isn’t going to improve any time soon.

    The new requirement is an addition to the template, which allows a provider to model financial viability against different yet plausible scenarios: zero growth over four years and 40 per cent below forecast followed by three years of zero growth for those currently delivering HE – zero growth followed by 80 per cent below forecast for the next three years for those entirely new to the sector.

    These aren’t set in stone – OfS reserves the right to tweak them based on emerging sector issues. And we may also get an alternative for providers whether the business model is not predominantly balanced on higher education provision.

    The commentary to this new table would let the provider set out mitigations, or provide evidence that these scenarios are unrealistic. But even so, there is a risk here that condition D becomes the hard one to pass – OfS reckon this is fair enough given short– and medium– term challenges to the sector. Although one cannot help but think of the many existing registered providers that would not pass these tests.

    By OfS request

    There’s another welcome recognition that applying for registration takes ages in the requirement for a provider to submit updated finances, student numbers, and commentary in the late stages of application by OfS request. While this makes sense in that the regulator isn’t relying on year-old (and the rest…) numbers this is a hard sell for those prospective registrants now expecting to submit similar data twice – although it could be argued that this gets them used to regular submissions while registered.

    Likewise, if the financial year turns over during the registration process you’ll need to put an extra batch of audited financial statements in for that year.

    And, wonderfully, OfS wants an ownership and corporate structure diagram too – it’s been finding some structures “complex”, poor thing.

    If your provider is or has been under investigation by another regulator – or awarding organisation, professional body, funding body, statutory body, and so forth – you’d better believe that OfS wants to know about that up front too. Apparently it keeps finding out about such things midway through the assessment process – and it does tend to be relevant, even if it is not an automatic fail.

    The rules are for the 60 months proceeding application, any investigation that closed or opened during the application period is something OfS wants to know about: a brief description, the responsible body, the dates, and the findings and/or outcomes.

    And if you are looking forward to the exciting world of “reportable events”, something similar now applies during registration. If stuff happens (there’s a long and familiar list on page 42) then you’d best drop OfS a note within 28 days.

    Finally, from January 2026 you won’t be able to reapply within 18 months of an unsuccessful registration application. This “double jeopardy” rule is a new one, and it looks like it is aimed at ensuring that OfS capacity is not clogged with resubmissions of poor quality applications where identified weaknesses are not addressed. We learn that 40 per cent of applications don’t comply with the existing guidance.

    There is the possibility of individual exemptions from this rule, for example where there have been IIT problems or where information that was not available for reasons outside of the provider’s control is now available.

    How this will be done

    The changes to application requirements were done via the same “manner of application” loophole – section 3(5) of HERA – that was used to pause the registration process. It is, as we said at the time, a reach in terms of legislative interpretation but it is difficult to argue against many of the principles here.

    It is regrettable that the same group of providers that have been forced to delay or resubmit applications due to the pause will now have to do considerable extra work to get these into the new format.

    While the principle of assessing existing documents rather than new ones is a good one, the reality of this is not as neat as regulators sometimes think. For an expected influx of new registrations – the franchise thing, and whatever ends up happening with the lifelong learning entitlement is expected to flush out at least a few – it makes sense to have all this in order. But there are always winners and losers with these things, and the losers have lost several times in a row here.

    The only other disappointment is probably that these new approaches will apply only to new registrations – there’s clearly a lot of benefit to similar approaches (especially for C5 and the financial requirements) to be extended to existing registered providers, and it is likely that there is more to come on that front.

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  • DfE steps in to require franchise partners to register with OfS

    DfE steps in to require franchise partners to register with OfS

    The Department for Education is consulting on a requirement for providers delivering courses under a franchise model to register with the Office for Students in order that they and their students can access student finance. We also get an impact assessment and an equalities assessment.

    The consultation defines “franchise” as follows:

    A ‘franchised student’ is one who is registered with a lead provider, but where more than 50% of their provision is taught by a delivery partner

    The proposals suggest that should a provider delivering teaching as part of a franchise arrangement (a delivery partner) have over 300 (headcount) higher education students in a given year it would need to be fully registered with the Office for Students under the existing Approved or Approved (Fee Cap) rules. A failure to register would mean that the institution could not access fee loans, and that students could not access maintenance loans.

    There would be some exceptions: providers already regulated elsewhere (schools, FE colleges, NHS trusts, local authorities, and Police and Crime Commissioners) would be exempt. Providers (not courses) would be designated (by DfE) as being eligible to access student finance, meaning that providers running courses regulated by a Professional Statutory Regulatory Body (PSRB) would not be exempt.

    The consultation (which closes 4 April 2025) will inform regulation from April 2026 onwards, with the first decisions about designation made in September 2027 (based on 2026-27 student data) for the 2028-29 academic year. Once up and running this pattern will continue: providers will be designated (based on student numbers from the previous academic year) for the academic year starting the year after. This gives newly designated providers a year to register with OfS.

    Student numbers would not be allowed to breach the 300 threshold without registration – the expectation is that providers should register the year before this happens. Should the threshold be breached, the provider will lose a year of eligibility for student finance for new students: the upshot being that if an unregistered provider had 300 or more students in 2026-27 and then registered with OfS, it would lose a year of designation (so would not be able to access student finance in 2029-30).

    In November of each year, DfE intends to publish a list of designated providers for the following academic year – providing a point of reference for applicants looking to access finance. Interestingly, despite the requirement being to register with OfS it is intended that DfE runs the process: making decisions about eligibility, managing appeals, and communicating decisions.

    The background

    We’ve been covering some of the issues presented by a subset of franchise providers on Wonkhe for quite a while, and it is now generally accepted that higher education in the UK has a problem with the quality and ethics at the bottom end of such provision. Students either enrol purely to access student finance, or are duped (often by higher education agents rather than providers themselves) into accessing fee and maintenance loans for substandard provision. Continuation and completion rates are very low compared to traditional providers, and the qualification awarded at the end (despite bearing the name of a well-known university) may not open the career doors that students may hope.

    We knew that an announcement on this issue was supposed to be coming in January via the government’s response to the former Public Accounts Committee’s report on franchising, which was sparked by a National Audit Office (NAO) report on the issue from a year ago – so the announcement today has just squeaked in under the Treasury’s wire.

    There is a slightly longer backstory to all of this – and we’re not referring to the various bits of coverage on potential abuses in the system that we’ve run in recent years. It was back in 2023 when the Department for Education’s heavily belated response to the Augar review reached a conclusion – promising to “drive up” the of franchised provision, in part by promising to:

    …closely consider whether we should take action to impose additional controls, in particular regarding the delivery of franchised provision by organisations that are not directly regulated by any regulatory body.

    Given the NAO and the PAC’s interventions since, and the work of the OfS in addressing franchise (and other academic partnership failings) via the coming round of quality (B3) investigations, special investigations, and enhanced data gathering, it is perhaps a little surprising that it is DfE that is in the lead here.

    There’s an important lesson in that to be drawn at some stage – the repeated pattern seems to be that an issue is raised, the sector is asked to self-regulate, it seemingly can’t, the regulator is asked to step in instead, and then it is discovered that what we actually need is secondary legislation.

    How big a deal is franchising

    Despite a number of years trying, OfS has never managed to compile full data on the extent of franchised, validated, and other partnership provision – the details are not in any current public dataset. It’s important here to distinguish between:

    • Franchised provision: where a student is registered at one institution, but teaching is delivered at another
    • Validated provision: where a student is both registered and taught at one institution, but receives an award validated by another institution on successful completion of their course
    • Other academic partnerships: which include arrangements where students are taught by more than one institution, or where existing providers partner to allow students to apply to a “new” provider (like a medical or veterinary science school)

    Of the three, it is just franchised provision that is in the scope of this new DfE requirement. It’s also (helpful) the most easily visible of the three if you are a fan of mucking about with Unistats data (though note that not all courses are in the unistats release, and the other vagaries of our least-known public data release continue to apply).

    DfE has done a bang-up job in pulling together some statistics on the scale of franchise provision within the impact assessment. We learn that (as of 2022–23 – usual student numbers caveats for that year of data apply):

    • There were currently 96 lead providers, franchising to 341 partners, of which 237 were unregistered.
    • 135,850 students were studying via a franchise arrangement – some 80,045 were studying at unregistered providers (a proportional fall, but a numerical rise, over previous years)
    • These students tended to study business and management courses – and were more likely to be mature students, from deprived areas, and to have non-traditional (or no) entry qualifications.
    • An astonishing 92 per cent of classroom based foundation years delivered as an intercalated part of a first degree were delivered via franchise arrangements.
    • There were 39 franchise providers teaching 300 students or more – of which four would be subject to the DfE’s proposed exemptions because of their legal status. These providers accounted for 66,540 students in 2022–23.

    A note on OfS registration

    Office for Students registration is confusing at the best of times. Though the registration route is currently paused until August 2025, providers have the choice of registering under one of two categories:

    • Approved (fee cap) providers are eligible to access fee loan finance up to the higher limit if they have an approved access and participation plan, receive direct funding from OfS, and access Research England funding.
    • Approved providers can access fee loan finance up to the “basic” fee limit. They are not eligible for OfS or Research England funding – but can directly charge students fees that exceed the “basic” fee limit.

    In the very early stages of developing the OfS regulatory framework it was briefly suggested that OfS would also offer a “Basic” level of registration, which would confer no benefits and would merely indicate that a provider was known to the OfS. This was speedily abandoned, with the rationale being that it would suggest OfS was vouching in some way for provision it did not regulate.

    The long and painful gestation of the Lifelong Learning Entitlement (LLE) also yielded suggestions of a third category of registration, which would apply to providers that currently offer provision backed by the Advanced Learner Loans (ALLs) that would be replaced by the LLE. We were expecting the Office for Students to consult on this new category, but nothing has yet appeared – and it does feel unlikely that anyone (other than possibly Jo Johnson) would be keen on a riskier registration category for less known providers that offers less regulatory oversight.

    Statutory nuts and bolts

    The proposal is to lay secondary legislation to amend the Education (Student Support) Regulations 2011 – specifically the bit that is used to designate types of courses for student finance eligibility. There is currently a specific section in this SI – section 5 part 1 subsection d, to be precise – that permits registered providers to franchise the delivery of courses to partners.

    The plan appears to be to amend this section to include the stipulation that were more than 300 higher education students (in total, excluding apprenticeships) are taught at a given franchise provider (I assume in total, across all franchise arrangements) then it must be registered with the Office for Students in order to be designated for student finance (allowing students to receive maintenance loans or providers to receive fee loan income).

    This might seem like a small technical change but the implications are surprisingly far reaching – for the first time, the OfS (as regulator and owner of the register) has the ability to decide who can and cannot deliver UK higher education. If anyone – even a well established university – is removed from the OfS register it will be unable to access fee loans (and students will be unable to access maintenance loans) for intakes above 300 students, even if it enters into a partnership with another provider.

    Let’s say, for example, that a large university becomes financially unsustainable and thus breaches the conditions of registration D1 or D2. Under such circumstances it could no longer be registered with OfS and thus would no longer be able to award degrees. The hope would be that student interests would be protected with the support of another university, and one way that this could happen is that someone else validates the awards offered to students so they can be taught out (assuming temporary financial support is forthcoming from government or elsewhere). Under the new rules, this arrangement would only work for 300 students.

    What might go wrong

    OfS has classically regulated based on the registered student population – the implication being that providers involved in franchise provision would be responsible for the quality and standards of teaching their students experience wherever they were taught. There have been indications via the B3 and TEF dashboards that students studying at franchise partners tend to have a worse experience overall.

    This does pose the question as to whether franchise partners who registered with OfS would now be responsible for these students directly, or whether there will be some sense of joint responsibility.

    There’s also the question of how providers will respond. Those franchised-to providers who either worry about their own outcomes (no longer judged within a larger university’s provision) wouldn’t cut it might stay that way – an outcomes based system that is always playing catch up on experience could see some poor provision linger around for many years. On the other hand, if they are now to be subject directly to conditions like those concerning transparency, finances and governance, they might as well switch to validation rather than franchising, which will change the relationship with the main provider.

    We might in aggregate see that as a positive – but that then raises the question as to whether OfS itself will be any better at spotting issues than universities have previously been. They could, of course, not fancy the scrutiny at all, and disappear with a rapidity that few student protection plans are designed to withstand.

    It’s also worth asking not just about OfS’ capacity or regulatory design, but its powers. Many of the issues we’ve identified (and that have been called out by the NAO and the PAC) concern how the courses are sold – OfS’ record on consumer rights is at best weak, and completely untested when the profit incentives are so high.

    And even if the sunlight of better outcomes data puts pressure on over outcomes, we do have to worry about how some of the providers in this space get there. In at least one of the providers that we have seen an OfS report for, a call centre team in another country that is supposed to offer support to students sounds more like a debt collection agency, chasing students up to submit, with academic staff paid partly on outcomes performance. Remember, providers that do this are already registered with OfS – so clearly the registration process itself is not enough to weed out such practices.

    The impact assessment is very clear that it expects some (an oddly precise four in the first year and two in subsequent years) unregistered franchise partners to drop out of HE provision altogether rather than applying for registration. The unspoken codicil to this is that everyone hopes that this will be the poor quality or otherwise suspect ones – but many excellent independent providers (including a number of Independent HE members) have struggled to get through a lengthy and often bureaucratic process, even before registration was temporarily closed because OfS decided it didn’t have capacity to run it this year.

    The line between supporting students and spoon feeding them is often debated in HE, but we might worry that a decent dose of it in a way that few would think appropriate could enable providers to evade regulation for some time – especially if validation (and therefore less risk to the validator) becomes the norm.

    And naturally, this is an approach that ignores two other things: whether a demand-led system at the edges should respond to the sort of demand that seems to come from those profiting from selling more than it does from students themselves, and whether it’s right. Even if you accept some for-profit activity, for anyone to be arranging for predominantly low-income and disadvantaged students to be getting into full tuition fees debt when sometimes more than half is kept in profits, and what is spent seems to include high “acquisition” costs and quite low delivery and support costs.

    In other words, one of the tests should be “does any of this change the incentives,” and it’s not at all clear that it does.

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