Tag: Results

  • Across All Ages & Demographics, Test Results Show Americans Are Getting Dumber – The 74

    Across All Ages & Demographics, Test Results Show Americans Are Getting Dumber – The 74


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    There’s no way to sugarcoat it: Americans have been getting dumber.

    Across a wide range of national and international tests, grade levels and subject areas, American achievement scores peaked about a decade ago and have been falling ever since. 

    Will the new NAEP scores coming out this week show a halt to those trends? We shall see. But even if those scores indicate a slight rebound off the COVID-era lows, policymakers should seek to understand what caused the previous decade’s decline. 

    There’s a lot of blame to go around, from cellphones and social media to federal accountability policies. But before getting into theories and potential solutions, let’s start with the data.

    Until about a decade ago, student achievement scores were rising. Researchers at Education Next found those gains were broadly shared across racial and economic lines, and achievement gaps were closing. But then something happened, and scores started to fall. Worse, they fell faster for lower-performing students, and achievement gaps started to grow.

    This pattern shows up on test after test. Last year, we looked at eighth grade math scores and found growing achievement gaps in 49 of 50 states, the District of Columbia and 17 out of 20 large cities with sufficient data.

    But it’s not just math, and it’s not just NAEP. The American Enterprise Institute’s Nat Malkus has documented the same trend in reading, history and civics. Tests like NWEA’s MAP Growth and Curriculum Associates’ i-Ready are showing it too. And, as Malkus found in a piece released late last year, this is a uniquely American problem. The U.S. now leads the world in achievement gap growth.

    What’s going on? How can students here get back on track? Malkus addresses these questions in a new report out last week and makes the point that any honest reckoning with the causes and consequences of these trends must account for the timing, scope and magnitude of the changes.

    Theory #1: It’s accountability

    As I argued last year, my top explanation has been the erosion of federal accountability policies. In 2011 and 2012, the Obama administration began issuing waivers to release states from the most onerous requirements of the No Child Left Behind Act. Congress made those policies permanent in the 2015 Every Student Succeeds Act. That timing fits, and it makes sense that easing up on accountability, especially for low-performing students, led to achievement declines among those same kids.

    However,  there’s one problem with this explanation: American adults appear to be suffering from similar achievement declines. In results that came out late last year, the average scores of Americans ages 16 to 65 fell in both literacy and numeracy on the globally administered Program for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies. 

    And even among American adults, achievement gaps are growing. The exam’s results are broken down into six performance levels. On the numeracy portion, for example, the share of Americans scoring at the two highest levels rose two points, from 10% to 12%, while the percentage of those at the bottom two levels rose from 29% to 34%. In literacy, the percentage of Americans scoring at the top two levels fell from 14% to 13%, while the lowest two levels rose from 19% to 28%. 

    These results caused Peggy Carr, the commissioner of the National Center for Education Statistics, to comment, “There’s a dwindling middle in the United States in terms of skills.” Carr could have made the same comment about K-12 education —  except that these results can’t be explained by school-related causes.

    Theory #2: It’s the phones

    The rise of smartphones and social media, and the decline in reading for pleasure, could be contributing to these achievement declines. Psychologist Jean Twenge pinpointed 2012 as the first year when more than half of Americans owned a smartphone, which is about when achievement scores started to decline. This theory also does a better job of explaining why Americans of all ages are scoring lower on achievement tests.

    But there are some holes in this explanation. For one, why are some of the biggest declines seen in the youngest kids? Are that many 9-year-olds on Facebook or Instagram? Second, why are the lowest performers suffering the largest declines in achievement? Attention deficits induced by phones and screens should affect all students in similar ways, and yet the pattern shows the lowest performers are suffering disproportionately large drops.

    But most fundamentally, why is this mostly a U.S. trend? Smartphones and social media are global phenomena, and yet scores in Australia, England, Italy, Japan and Sweden have all risen over the last decade. A couple of other countries have seen some small declines (like Finland and Denmark), but no one has else seen declines like we’ve had here in the States.

    Other theories: Immigration, school spending or the Common Core

    Other theories floating around have at least some kernels of truth. Immigration trends could explain some portion of the declines, although it’s not clear why those would be affecting scores only now. The Fordham Institute’s Mike Petrilli has partly blamed America’s “lost decade” on economic factors, but school spending has rebounded sharply in recent years without similar gains in achievement. Others, including historian Diane Ravitch and the Pioneer Institute’s Theodor Rebarber, blame the shift to the Common Core state standards, which was happening about the same time. But non-Common Core states suffered similar declines, and scores have also dropped in non-Common Core subjects.

    Note that COVID is not part of my list. It certainly exacerbated achievement declines and reset norms within schools, but achievement scores were already falling well before it hit America’s shores.

    Instead of looking for one culprit, it could be a combination of these factors. It could be that the rise in technology is diminishing Americans’ attention spans and stealing their focus from books and other long-form written content. Meanwhile, schools have been de-emphasizing basic skills, easing up on behavioral expectations and making it easier to pass courses. At the same time, policymakers in too many parts of the country have stopped holding schools accountable for the performance of all students.

    That’s a potent mix of factors that could explain these particular problems. It would be helpful to have more research to pinpoint problems and solutions, but if this diagnosis is correct, it means students, teachers, parents and policymakers all have a role to play in getting achievement scores back on track. 


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  • 2024 Election Results and Analysis of Future Policy Impacts

    2024 Election Results and Analysis of Future Policy Impacts

    by CUPA-HR | November 14, 2024

    The results of the 2024 election are in: Donald Trump will serve as the 47th president of the United States, while both the Senate and House of Representatives will be controlled by Republicans. With the Republican trifecta in the White House and Congress, Republicans can focus on passing their policy priorities through legislation in Congress and regulatory action at the federal agencies. CUPA-HR’s government relations team provides the following analysis to offer insight into possible leadership, policies and regulations we expect starting in January 2025.

    Federal Agencies and Congressional Committees

    Department of Labor

    The Department of Labor (DOL), overseen by the secretary of labor, directs policy and regulations for employers, workers, and retirees in the U.S. Throughout the election season, news organizations have speculated President-elect Trump’s potential picks for the secretary position, though who will be nominated will be unknown until Trump announces it. According to Politico, two possible candidates are Patrick Pizzella and Bryan Slater. Under the first Trump administration, Pizzella served as deputy secretary of labor and acting secretary of labor between former secretaries Alex Acosta and Eugene Scalia. Slater, who currently serves as Virginia’s secretary of labor, had also previously served as assistant secretary at DOL under the previous Trump administration.

    In addition to the secretary of labor, Trump will pick people to head the subagencies at DOL, including the Employee Benefits Security Administration, Occupational Safety and Health Administration, and Wage and Hour Division, among others. These agencies draft and implement regulations governing retirement and health benefits plans, workplace safety and health, and minimum wage and overtime pay requirements. Leaders of the DOL subagencies are typically selected later in the Cabinet-appointment process.

    National Labor Relations Board

    The party control of the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) depends on actions taken by the Senate during the lame-duck session between the election and President-elect Trump’s inauguration. Current chair of the NLRB Lauren McFerran’s term is set to expire in December 2024, but she has been renominated to serve on the board for another five years by President Biden. Senate Democrats, who are likely to push for her confirmation now that the Senate and White House will be Republican-controlled in 2025, will need to vote to confirm her position, only needing a simple majority. If confirmed, NLRB would be under Democratic control until at least August 2026, more than a year and a half into the Trump administration, leaving President Trump unable to obtain a Republican majority on the board — and thereby control the policy at the NLRB — for nearly half of his second term.

    Despite possibly not having control of the NLRB, President Trump may choose to fire the NLRB General Counsel Jennifer Abruzzo (Democrat), whose term is not set to expire until July 2025. In 2021, President Biden terminated then-General Counsel Peter Robb (Republican) within hours of his inauguration, despite Robb’s term not ending until November of that same year. This was the first time any sitting president had fired a sitting general counsel at an independent agency for policy differences. Federal courts upheld Robb’s termination, so President Trump is highly likely to terminate Abruzzo immediately upon taking office. As a reminder, Abruzzo issued several memos stating her position regarding employment status for student-athletes, severance agreements, and disclosure obligations under the National Labor Relations Act and Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act, all of which would likely be rescinded by Trump’s NLRB general counsel appointee.

    Equal Employment Opportunity Commission

    Unless a commissioner leaves their post before their term expires, the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) will maintain a Democrat majority (currently 3-1, with one Republican seat vacant) until July 2026. Despite this, President-elect Trump is likely to appoint Commissioner Andrea Lucas to serve as chair of the EEOC. Lucas and the EEOC would be limited in their ability to adopt new policies or reverse actions taken by the Democrat-controlled commission prior to July 2026. At that time, we expect the Republican-controlled EEOC to issue revised guidance that narrows the scope of the agency’s interpretation of Title VII protections in light of Bostock v. Clayton County and the legality of diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives in employment practices, possibly extending legal principles established under the Students for Fair Admission v. Harvard case.

    Similar to the NLRB, we expect that President-elect Trump will replace the current EEOC General Counsel Karla Gilbride (Democrat). In her role, Gilbride has litigated on behalf of the EEOC in federal court, but the position typically does not provide policy recommendations to the full commission like the NLRB general counsel does.

    Department of Education

    The Department of Education (ED) oversees and implements policy and regulations governing federal assistance to education. With respect to higher education, ED governs issues like federal financial aid, Title IX compliance, and other laws aimed at promoting student success. Under the incoming Trump administration, Politico has speculated that there are a few possible contenders who could ultimately lead the agency.

    One possible candidate for ED’s secretary is Betsy DeVos, who served as secretary of education during Trump’s first term. During DeVos’ first term as ED secretary, she led the agency to implement the 2020 Title IX regulations that are still currently in place in 26 states and hundreds of schools around the country, pending legal challenges to the Biden administration’s rule. However, DeVos resigned from her position as secretary of education after the January 6, 2021, riots at the U.S. Capitol, which may lead the incoming Trump administration to search for new candidates. Despite her resignation, DeVos has indicated that she is open to discussions about potentially serving in the role again.

    As we also discuss below, Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-NC) will be stepping down from her role as chair of the House Education and the Workforce Committee, where she most recently led an investigation into antisemitism on campus in higher education. This, along with her previous experience serving as an English instructor and president of a community college, may set her up for a bid for the secretary position.

    Some additional names that have been discussed by Politico are Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, Oklahoma State Superintendent of Public Instruction Ryan Walters, and Moms for Liberty founder Tiffany Justice.

    House Education and the Workforce Committee

    Republicans held control of the House in the 2024 election, but there will still be some shakeup in leadership for the Education and Workforce Committee. Chair of the committee Virginia Foxx will be stepping down from her role, leaving open the Republican leader position of the Committee. The two front-runners to chair the committee are Reps. Tim Walberg (R-MI) and Burgess Owens (R-UT), both currently serving on the committee. Notably, Walberg has served on the committee for 16 years, and Owens currently serves as the chair of the Higher Education and Workforce Development Subcommittee. For Democrats, current ranking member of the committee Bobby Scott (D-VA) is expected to maintain his position as leader of the Committee Democrats.

    Walberg and Owens have both publicized their policy priorities. Walberg has stated that, under his leadership, the committee would focus on legislation to make college more affordable, boost apprenticeships, implement a short-term Pell grant for workforce training programs, and reauthorize the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act. Owens hopes to steer the committee with a more education-centric focus, stating that top priorities for him are school choice and oversight into how ED uses its funding.

    Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee

    Republicans in the Senate gained control during the 2024 election, flipping the previously Democrat-controlled chamber. As a result, Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA) will likely rise to the role of chair on the Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee. Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) will shift into the ranking member position after serving as the chair of the full committee in the 118th Congress. Before his political career, Cassidy was a physician, meaning he could pivot the committee to focus more on health policy. Despite this, Cassidy has also advocated for the HELP committee to advance a Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act reauthorization bill, and he has advocated for the committee to focus on other education issues as well.

    Policy Implications of the Election

    FLSA Overtime

    As you already know, the Biden administration is in the process of implementing their FLSA overtime regulations. The final rule took a two-phased approach to increasing the minimum salary threshold. The first increase raised the salary threshold to $43,888 per year and took effect on July 1, 2024. The second increase would raise the salary threshold to $58,656 per year and is set to take effect on January 1, 2025. The regulations are currently being challenged in a federal district court in Texas, where a preliminary injunction to block the rule from taking effect has been placed only for public employers in the state of Texas. It remains to be seen how the federal judge will rule on the lawsuits, though a hearing for the cases was held on November 8 and a ruling is imminent.

    As the Trump administration will not take office until after the January 1 threshold, the regulation will take effect, pending further appeals, if the final rule is upheld in federal court. If the rule is struck down, we expect the Trump administration will let the court’s decision remain and make no further effort to appeal the decision. If the Trump administration decides to increase the minimum salary threshold during this upcoming term, they will likely use the methodology from the 2019 rule to increase the threshold.

    Title IX

    Similar to the overtime final rule, the Biden administration issued Title IX regulations in 2024 that are also facing legal challenges. The Biden administration’s Title IX rule took effect on August 1, 2024, but several lawsuits challenging the rule have resulted in preliminary injunctions blocking ED from enforcing it in 26 states and hundreds of other schools in states that did not challenge the final rule.

    The Biden administration’s regulations replaced the previous Trump administration’s 2020 Title IX regulations. If the regulations are upheld in federal court, we expect that the incoming secretary of education will repeal the Biden administration’s regulations in favor of keeping the 2020 regulations in effect across the country.

    Immigration

    There are several policies and regulations that CUPA-HR has been tracking on the immigration front that face uncertain futures under the incoming Trump administration. During the first term, the Trump administration placed a proposed rule on the regulatory agenda aiming to restrict the Optional Practical Training  program, which allows international students who graduate from U.S. institutions to work in their degree-related field for at least 12 months after graduating. The Trump administration also finalized a couple of final rules that would have increased wage obligations for H-1B visas and narrowed eligibility for H-1B visas to positions that qualified as “specialty occupations.” These rules were struck down in court, so while Trump is unlikely to implement the same rules, we could see similar attempts to increase H-1B wage obligations and narrow the H-1B program.

    Additionally, the incoming Trump administration will likely look to reverse policies implemented by the Department of Homeland Security under the Biden administration, including dropping any appeal of the recent court ruling against the “Keeping Families Together” program for undocumented spouses and children of U.S. citizens, as well as rescinding the guidance to streamline the H-1B visa waiver process for Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) recipients. Similarly, if the Biden administration does not finalize the H-1B modernization rule before the end of his term, a new Trump administration may seek to implement a more restrictive version, reshaping the rule to reflect its own priorities rather than those outlined in the Biden administration’s October 2023 proposal.

    Legislative Priorities

    With Republicans controlling both the House and the Senate, legislative priorities should be mostly aligned between the two chambers and the White House. However, their ability to pass legislation will still depend on bipartisan support, as Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House and do not have a large enough majority in the Senate to bypass the 60-vote filibuster. Despite these challenges, we expect Republicans to focus on issues like paid leave, workforce development, and affordable college and workforce training.

    Though paid leave is a priority for both parties, Republicans and Democrats have previously not agreed on the best approach to establish it through federal legislation. In his first term, Trump and other Republicans backed paid leave legislation that allowed parents to collect a portion of their future child tax credits early to use for leave and receive smaller credits in the following years. This proposal ran counter to the Democrat-supported Family and Medical Insurance Leave (FAMILY) Act, which would establish a payroll tax to fund a paid family and medical leave program that can be used to pay workers who are new parents or who are caring for their own health issues or those of their family. Republicans and Democrats will need to find a compromise if they are to pass any paid leave legislation in the upcoming Congress, as they will need 60 votes in the Senate to bypass a filibuster.

    Despite their differences on paid leave, Republicans and Democrats have made bipartisan efforts to pass legislation to improve workforce development and create a short-term Pell grant. During this Congress, both the House and Senate have worked to pass legislation to reauthorize the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act, which serves as the nation’s primary federal workforce development legislation designed to help Americans receive training and support to obtain skills necessary for high-quality jobs and careers. Additionally, there has been bipartisan support to pass legislation that would expand the Pell grant program to cover short-term workforce development and training programs that are outside the traditional higher education path. Again, Republicans and Democrats will need to find consensus on these issues in order to bypass the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster, but bipartisan issues like workforce development and short-term Pell grants appear to have a possible path to becoming law.

    CUPA-HR is hosting a 2024 election analysis webinar on November 21 at 12 PM ET. Registration is free for CUPA-HR members. Additional updates will be provided through future blogs and Washington Insider alerts.



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  • APS progressing monitoring shows mixed results from 2024 assessments

    APS progressing monitoring shows mixed results from 2024 assessments

    Last year’s Albuquerque Public Schools third-graders identified in the Yazzie-Martinez decision plus African American students fell short of the reading proficiency goal set by the district in its first year of concerted progress monitoring under a new strategic plan, according to a report released earlier this month.

    APS administrators pointed out during an October 2 school board meeting that these third-graders, identified in the Yazzie-Martinez decision plus African Americans, were kindergarteners during the Covid-19 pandemic, and spent much of that formative year learning online, which served them poorly.

    The review is part of the district’s plan to monitor progress towards the four goals adopted by the APS Board of Education in 2023, aligned with the district’s new Emerging Stronger Strategic Plan. Each of the four goals have interim goals that serve as indicators of progress.

    Goal One of the district’s four overarching goals calls for a 10 percentage-point increase in reading proficiency among that group of third-graders between 2023 and 2028. The interim goal for spring of 2024 was to raise the rate from 2023’s 27.3 to 28.3.

    Instead, last year’s third-graders actually slipped to a proficiency rate of 25.3.

    The district is still devising individualized strategies to catch kids up, officials told board members.

    “Strategic measures moving forward can be summarized by the word specificity,” Antonio Gonzales, deputy superintendent of leadership and learning told the board. This means getting detailed in determining what different subgroups need, for example special education and English language learners students need, and how to provide for those needs.

    “We know that we have a strategy in place, and that’s great. And I believe in the strategy that we have in place. But what this strategy calls us to action on is being specific and specific by student,” Gonzales said.

    APS has not modified its five-year goal, but now predicts that the current year’s proficiency rate for identified third-graders will be 26.6 percent, rather than the 29.3 percent that would keep the district on track to meet the ultimate goal.

    The board also heard reports on two sub-goals, where the news was decidedly better.

    Interim Goal 1.1 focuses on the reading proficiency rates of first graders as measured by Istation formative assessments given at the beginning, middle, and end of the school year. “This interim assessment gives teachers real-time insights into each student’s reading abilities to help inform instruction and provide intervention,” said a slide presentation produced by the district.

    The three-year target for Interim Goal 1.1 is to increase the proficiency rate of first graders in the targeted groups by six percentage points—from 17 percent in 2023 to 23 percent in 2026. Students significantly exceeded that goal last school year, ending the year with a 24.1 percent proficiency rate.

    Interim Goal 1.2 has a three-year target of increasing the percentage of second-grade students identified in the Yazzie-Martinez decision plus African American students who demonstrate grade level proficiency or above as predicted by Istation from 18.3% in May 2023 to 24.3% in May 2026.

    By the end of last school year, 26.3 percent of those students were proficient.

    If these trends hold, it will suggest that the performance of last year’s third-graders was a Covid-related aberration, and that students on the grades that follow are performing significantly better.

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  • Preliminary results show essentially flat state test scores

    Preliminary results show essentially flat state test scores

    New Mexico students made tiny gains in literacy and dipped slightly in math proficiency last school year, according to preliminary results released Sept. 19 by the Public Education Department.

    Notably, the results look slightly more favorable than those in data also released Sept.19 by the Legislative Education Study Committee, which showed 2023-24 scores flat. PED attributed the discrepancy to an error PED discovered on the data earlier this week.

    Regardless, the results show that a large majority of the state’s public education students continue to fall short of grade-level proficiency. This suggests that New Mexico will remain close to the bottom nationally in student achievement.

    The PED results do not include detailed demographic or grade-level breakdowns. Those results will be released on Oct. 4. 

    According to the PED, 39 percent of K-8 and 11th-grade students scored proficient or better on state literacy assessments, compared to 38 percent in 2023, and up from 34 percent in 2022. The LESC results showed that the literacy proficiency rate was flat at 38 percent.

    In math, PED data show 23 percent of students in grades 3-8 and 11 proficient. That’s down one percentage point from 2023 and two points down from 2022. LESC numbers showed 22 percent proficient in 2024.

    In grades 5, 8 and 11 science, scores were up three percentage points, from 34 percent proficient last year to 37 percent proficient in 2024.

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