Tag: sight

  • University of Arizona has balanced budget in sight after massive deficits

    University of Arizona has balanced budget in sight after massive deficits

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    Dive Brief:

    • University of Arizona released a fiscal 2026 plan that would balance its budget by reducing it 3.2% from current levels, though officials noted federal policy changes, state budgeting and enrollment could force adjustments. 
    • The preliminary budget plan would make the deepest cuts to university support and administration, reducing those areas by 7.5% overall. Student support would be cut by 2.8%, and the aggregate budget for the university’s colleges would be reduced by 2.2%. It would also decrease facility and utility spending by 1.1% while increasing community outreach by 0.7%.
    • At the same time, the framework funds employee raises, faculty promotions, investments in the university’s colleges and other spending areas, officials said Thursday in a community message.

    Dive Insight:

    The University of Arizona has been scrambling for more than a year to put its fiscal house in order. 

    In early 2024, the university faced a budget shortfall reaching $177 million. The situation became so severe as to draw an open rebuke from the state’s governor, Katie Hobbs, who in a statement last February derided a “university leadership that was clueless as to their own finances.”

    Since that time, then-President Robert Robbins stepped down and the university has made major cutbacks to its budget. 

    Helping lead that work is John Arnold, who has taken on the chief operating and financial officer roles at University of Arizona after previously serving as executive director of the state board of regents. 

    For fiscal 2025, the university reduced its budget by over $110 million, centralizing its fiscal planning, “rebalancing” undergraduate aid for nonresident students, delaying raises, and reorganizing administrative units including information technology, human resources and marketing. 

    Arnold informed the state regents in November that the university was on track to wipe the remaining $65 million deficit from its budget and end fiscal 2025 with 76 days cash on hand — well above the nine days’ worth of cash that was projected last June. The regents require state universities to have 140 days of cash on hand, a target the University of Arizona hasn’t hit since 2022.

    By the fall, cuts took the university’s employee headcounts and payroll expenses back to early fiscal 2023 levels. 

    While making numerous reductions across the university’s operations, officials also announced salary increases and a raised minimum wage earlier this year. 

    Arnold and Ronald Marx, the university’s interim provost and senior vice president for academic affairs, said in their message Thursday that the new budget framework “prioritizes academic excellence, faculty and staff support, and student success across colleges.”

    They added the caveat that possible changes in federal policy, state budgeting, changing demographics and enrollment could all sway the final fiscal 2026 budget.

    “We are actively monitoring these developments and evaluating the financial implications of the changing external environment,” Arnold and Marx said. 

    Arizona lawmakers last year threw a wrench into budget plans with multimillion dollar funding reductions, which came as University of Arizona sought to reduce its deficit by tens of millions of dollars.

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  • Hiding in plain sight? A simple statistical effect may largely explain the ethnicity degree awarding gap

    Hiding in plain sight? A simple statistical effect may largely explain the ethnicity degree awarding gap

    • By Sean Brophy (@seanbrofee), Senior Lecturer at the Centre for Decent Work and Productivity, Manchester Metropolitan University.

    A persistent challenge in UK higher education is the ethnicity degree awarding gap – the difference between White and ethnic minority students receiving top degrees (firsts or 2:1s). The Office for Students (OfS) aims to entirely eliminate this gap by 2030/31, but what if most of this gap reflects success in widening participation rather than systemic barriers?

    Between 2005/6 and 2021/22, university participation grew 21% faster for Asian students and 17% faster for Black students compared to White students. This remarkable success in widening access might paradoxically explain one of the UK’s most persistent higher education challenges.

    Figure 1 presents ethnicity gaps over time compared to a White baseline (the grey line constant at zero). The data for 2021/22 shows significant gaps: 21 percentage points for Black students, 9 for Asian students, and 4 for Mixed ethnicity students compared to their White peers. Traditional explanations focus on structural barriers, cultural differences, and potential discrimination, and much of the awarding gap remains unexplained after adjusting for prior attainment and background characteristics. However, a simpler explanation might be hiding in plain sight: the gap may also reflect a statistical effect created by varying participation rates across ethnic groups.

    Ethnicity Degree Awarding Gap (2014/15 – 2021/22)

    Figure 1. Source: HESA

    Here is the key insight: ethnic minority groups now participate in higher education at remarkably higher rates than White students, which likely then drives some of the observed ethnicity awarding gaps. Figure 2 presents the over-representation of ethnic groups in UK higher education relative to the White reference group (again, the constant grey line). The participation gap has grown substantially – Asian students were 22 percentage points more likely to attend university than White students in 2021/22, with Black students 18 points higher.

    Over-representation of ethnic groups in HE compared to White baseline (2005/6-2021/22)

    Figure 2. Source: UCAS End Of Cycle Report 2022

    This difference in participation rates creates an important statistical effect, what economists call ‘compositional effects’. When a much larger proportion of any group enters university, that group may naturally include a broader range of academic ability. Think of it like this: if mainly the top third of White students attend university, but nearly half of ethnic minority students do, we would expect to see differences in degree outcomes – even with completely fair teaching and assessment.

    This principle can be illustrated using stylized ability-participation curves for representative ethnic groups in Figure 3. These curves show the theoretical distribution of academic ability for Asian, Black, and White groups, with the red shaded area representing the proportion of students from each group accepted into higher education in 2021/22. It would be surprising if there was no degree awarding gap under these conditions!

    Stylized ability-participation curves by ethnic group

    This hypothesis suggests the degree awarding gap might largely reflect the success of widening participation policies. Compositional effects like these are difficult to control for in studies, and it is noteworthy that, to date, no studies on the ethnicity awarding gap have adequately controlled for these effects (including one of my recent studies).

    While this theory may offer a compelling statistical explanation, future research pursuing this line of inquiry needs to go beyond simply controlling for prior achievement. We need to examine both how individual attainment evolves from early education to university, using richer measures than previous studies, and how the expansion of university participation has changed the composition of student ability over time. This analysis must also account for differences within broad ethnic categories (British Indian students, for example, show different patterns from other Asian groups) and consider how university and subject choices vary across groups.

    My argument is not that compositional effects explain everything — rather, understanding their magnitude is crucial for correctly attributing how much of the gap is driven by traditional explanations, such as prior attainment, background characteristics, structural barriers, or discrimination. Only with this fuller picture can we properly target resources and interventions where they’re most needed.

    If this hypothesis is proven correct, however, it underscores why the current policy focus on entirely eliminating gaps through teaching quality or support services, while well-intentioned, may be misguided. If gaps are the statistically inevitable result of differing participation patterns among ethnic groups, then institutional interventions cannot entirely eliminate them. This doesn’t mean universities shouldn’t strive to support all students effectively – but it does require us to fundamentally rethink how we measure and address educational disparities.

    Rather than treating all gaps as problems to be eliminated, we should:

    1. Fund research which better accounts for these compositional effects.
    2. Develop benchmarks that account for participation rates when measuring degree outcomes.
    3. Contextualize the success of widening participation with acknowledging awarding gaps as an inevitable statistical consequence.
    4. Focus resources on early academic support for students from all backgrounds who might need additional help, particularly in early childhood.
    5. Explore barriers in other post-16 or post-18 pathways that may be contributing to the over-representation of some groups in higher education.

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